Will Israel use window before Trump takes office and ramp up Gaza, Hezbollah conflicts?

WASHINGTON —  The foreign leader who has most engaged President-elect Donald Trump is undoubtedly Benjamin Netanyahu.

The Israeli prime minister was quick to congratulate the Republican leader, and the two have chatted by phone repeatedly since the election.

Trump’s message? He reportedly told Netanyahu he wants Israel to wrap up its conflicts in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon before the Jan. 20 inauguration. That has led to speculation that Netanyahu will announce cease-fire agreements as Trump takes office, a kind of congratulatory reward.

In the meantime, however, diplomats and analysts worry Israel will ratchet up the bloodshed in both conflicts, operating in the political vacuum as the U.S. changes administrations.

That means Netanyahu has roughly 70 days to inflict as much damage as possible against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which are backed by Iran.

Several Israeli officials are also eyeing the Trump victory as an opportunity to annex territory in the occupied West Bank, home to 3 million Palestinians. Such an action would be considered illegal under international law.

“This will be the year” for full Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said after the election.

Israeli officials are encouraged by Trump’s early Cabinet and administration nominations. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, whom Trump wants as his ambassador to Israel, endorsed the possibility of annexation in an interview with Israel’s Army Radio the day after his nomination. Huckabee is an evangelical Christian who has questioned any Palestinian claim to the land.

Trump has also nominated hard-line pro-Israel hawks to be his secretary of State (Florida Sen. Marco Rubio), ambassador to the United Nations (New York Rep. Elise Stefanik) and special envoy for the Middle East (real estate developer Steven Witkoff).

Even before winning the November election, Trump had urged Netanyahu to “get the job done” in Gaza. Many view such statements as giving Israel a green light to ramp up bombings. Trump has never shown sympathy for the Palestinian cause and would probably drop the Biden administration demand that Israel not reoccupy Gaza.

The conflict began when Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people and capturing about 250 hostages, most of whom have since been released or killed. Israel’s brutal war of retaliation has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians, injured many more and destroyed most of the coastal enclave’s infrastructure.

Cease-fire talks have all but fallen apart, and U.S. officials acknowledge none are taking place now, while Qatar, a key mediator, has withdrawn from the process. Despite reports that Qatar ordered Hamas officials to leave the country, they have not done so, according to Qatari officials, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to make statements to the media.

And there are no signs that the Biden administration will move to restrain Israel in the coming weeks.

“Washington is a lame duck, and Israel is largely free, from now to Jan. 20, of U.S. pressure,” said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Marwan Muasher, a former Jordanian foreign minister, said President Biden is unlikely to change course or get tougher with Israel in his final weeks.

“He calls himself a Zionist, and sees himself as a supporter to Israel, and he won’t do anything to change the image even in the next two months,” he said.

Before the election, some diplomats speculated that an outgoing Biden, unshackled by political considerations, might crack down on Israel, including its killing of civilians and blocking of humanitarian aid.

In an October letter, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III gave Israel 30 days to substantially increase food, medicine, water and other aid going into the Gaza Strip, where most of the Palestinian population has been displaced by the Israeli army at least once and more than a million face starvation.

If Israel failed to do so, the secretaries said, it risked losing U.S. military aid.

But that deadline passed last week. A large coalition of aid groups with employees on the ground in Gaza said that not only had humanitarian conditions not improved, they had deteriorated as well.

But the Biden administration declared that Israel had made sufficient progress to not incur any reduction or conditioning of military weapons and other assistance, dispelling the idea that the outgoing president would get tough in his final weeks.

Israeli troops have continued clearing northern Gaza of inhabitants, calling for mass evacuations that many rights groups contend are a prelude to Israel’s occupation of parts of the enclave.

Efforts to forge an Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire intensified last week, with the Shiite militant group and the Lebanese government studying a U.S.-Israeli proposal delivered over the weekend and U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein set to arrive in Beirut in the coming days.

But the diplomatic push has been accompanied by a ramping-up of Israel’s air assault in Hezbollah-dominated areas, reaching not only the Dahiyeh — the southern suburbs of the capital where Hezbollah holds sway — but also central Beirut.

On Sunday, an Israeli strike targeted a building in the densely populated Ras el-Nabaa neighborhood, killing Mohammed Afif, the head of Hezbollah’s media relations office, along with three other people, according to Lebanese health authorities. The strike was notable because it was the first attack in Beirut in about a month, but also because it was one of the few to target a senior Hezbollah official with no military role.

The Israeli military said in a statement that Afif was a “central and veteran figure in the organization who greatly influenced Hezbollah’s military activity” and “glorified and incited” attacks on Israel.

Hezbollah and Israel have been fighting since Oct. 8, 2023, when the Iran-backed group started targeting Israel’s north with a rocket campaign. Hezbollah said Afif was acting to support its Palestinian ally Hamas.

Israel escalated its attacks in September with thousands of airstrikes on Lebanon’s southern and eastern regions, along with the capital, and launched an invasion in a bid to uproot Hezbollah from areas near the border.

Lebanese health authorities say Israel’s attacks have killed more than 3,800 people and wounded almost 15,000 others, the majority of them in the last two months. The toll does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The Israeli military said 48 soldiers have been killed in the fighting with Hezbollah.

Among Gaza residents, few see cause for hope either during Biden’s sunset months or under Trump.

“When it comes to our cause, it doesn’t matter,” said Marwan Al-Sultan, director of northern Gaza’s Indonesian Hospital. “Both have the same policy towards the Palestinian issue.”

Wilkinson reported from Washington and Bulos from Beirut.