Ohtani, pitching: Areas of October confidence, concern for Dodgers

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In what is one of the more wide-open playoffs in recent Major League Baseball history, the Dodgers epitomize the relative state of parity.

If all the pieces fall in place, and they couple a star-studded offense with the right combination of pitching, the team could make a run at its second World Series title in the last five seasons.

If their patchwork rotation falters, or their best players again go missing, they could just as easily suffer an early elimination as they did the past two postseasons.

The Dodgers are entering October riding high, holding the top overall playoff seed and the second-best record in the majors since the All-Star break. But their path to a championship is also littered with obstacles, many created by their own roster deficiencies.

As the team waits to learn its opponent in the National League Division Series, which begins Saturday, here are reasons for confidence — and concern — entering yet another postseason.

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Confidence: Shohei Ohtani

You might have heard, but Shohei Ohtani had quite the season.

And for as dominant as he was overall (.309 batting average, 54 home runs, 130 RBIs and 59 steals), his last two weeks were particularly jaw-dropping.

Starting on Sept. 19, when he reached the unprecedented 50-homer, 50-steal milestone, Ohtani hit .628 over his last 10 games (27 for 43), with six home runs, six doubles, 20 RBIs, and as many strikeouts as walks (four each).

It might not be as simple as saying the Dodgers will go as far as Ohtani carries them in the playoffs, his first in as an MLB player. But that dynamic might not be far from the truth, either. If Ohtani stays hot, it could provide the kind of offensive spark the team will probably need.

Maintaining plate discipline might be the biggest factor in Ohtani’s performance in October.

Although he has never been afraid of expanding his hitting zone, his 26.7% chase rate this year was his lowest since 2020, almost two points under the MLB average. And after reaching the 50-50 threshold — at which point manager Dave Roberts said he noticed the slugger seemed to stop chasing home runs — he swung at pitches out of the zone just 18% of the time, one of the keys to his red-hot finish.

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Concern: Injuries

Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman crouches in pain after colliding with Padres first baseman Luis Arraez.

And not to the pitching staff this time.

Roberts has said repeatedly in the last week he expects to have first baseman Freddie Freeman (sprained ankle) and shortstop Miguel Rojas (adductor tear) in the lineup for Game 1 of the NLDS. Both players echoed similar optimism before missing the final series of the regular season.

Still, even if the Dodgers get both veterans back, there will be question marks surrounding each.

Freeman was already stumbling toward the finish line, batting just .241 in 15 games before rolling his ankle Thursday. Rojas’ numbers had also dipped while he was
battling his adductor injury; he was hitless in his last 13 at-bats before aggravating the issue Wednesday.

Both players serve important roles in the lineup, Freeman as a run-producer behind Ohtani and Mookie Betts, Rojas as a bottom-of-the-lineup spark plug who was batting almost .300 until a few weeks ago.

Given the Dodgers’ pitching concerns, they might have to outhit opponents to progress in the playoff. And if they don’t have Freeman and Rojas at 100%, the difficulty of that task will only increase.

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Confidence: the potential of Flaherty and Yamamoto

It might not be Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola. Or even Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish.

But, compared with their front-line pitchers of recent years, the Dodgers can at least hope they have a reliable 1-2 punch in Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who are expected to start in that order in the NLDS.

Yamamoto has the kind of numbers (a 3.00 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 90 innings in his rookie year) and stuff (an upper-90s fastball and swing-and-miss repertoire of breaking pitches) that hint at possible postseason success.

Flaherty has the production (he was 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA in 28 starts this year) and track record (he helped lead the St. Louis Cardinals to the NLCS in 2019) of a pitcher capable of making an impact in the playoffs.

No, the Dodgers don’t have Tyler Glasnow, or Gavin Stone, or any of the other six starters who finished the year on the injured list (including Clayton Kershaw, who hasn’t given up hope of returning in the playoffs from his toe injury).

But it’s certainly a better combination than last year, when the Dodgers pitched an injured Kershaw in Game 1 and rookie Bobby Miller in Game 2 of their sweep by the Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Concern: How those two have pitched lately

Dodgers starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto works against the Colorado Rockies in the second inning Saturday in Denver.

Again, Flaherty and Yamamoto are far from the best pitching duo in this year’s playoff field.

And in October, they’ll need to elevate their form from where it’s been lately.

Although Flaherty helped steady the Dodgers’ rotation when he arrived at the trade deadline, his last three starts raised some red flags. In 14 total innings, he gave up 10 runs, 14 hits and nine walks. His fastball velocity was down in the last two outings, averaging less than 92 mph. And he worked into the sixth inning in just one of the three, something he failed to do only once in his first seven starts with the team.

Yamamoto is a different story, still trying to build back up after missing three months because of a shoulder injury. After pitching just four, four and three innings in his first three outings back from the injured list, he finally completed five frames in Colorado over the weekend. Despite the lack of workload, he also logged a 3.38 ERA in his four September appearances.

More than anything, the Dodgers need length from their front-line pairing, so as not to further tax an already overworked bullpen. At times this year, both have flashed the ability to do so. But there have been concerningly few examples lately, making ace-caliber production from either in the postseason far from a guarantee.

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Confidence: Lineup depth

For long stretches this year, the Dodgers’ offense was glaringly top-heavy. But late in the season, they finally found balance beyond their Big 3.

Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy and Will Smith brought stability to the middle of the order. Hernández finished his banner 33-homer, 99-RBI season (one that should lead to a big payday as a free agent this offseason) with a 1.012 OPS in September. Muncy returned from his midseason oblique injury and posted a .925 OPS down the stretch. Smith shook off an extended slump through the summer by hitting .289 in his last 13 games.

Switch-hitting utility man Tommy Edman also provided some late-season pop (six home runs, 20 RBIs) after being acquired at the deadline, even while he struggled from the left side of the plate.

Off the bench, Kiké Hernández and Chris Taylor both hit above .300 over the last month, giving the Dodgers two surging bats that can play across the diamond defensively. Rookie outfielder Andy Pages returned from his late-August demotion by slugging .556 as a September call-up, representing another intriguing offensive weapon.

Even second baseman Gavin Lux has rounded back into form lately, finishing his roller-coaster return from last year’s torn ACL by going seven for 15 in his final four games.

Overall, the Dodgers went from having MLB’s seventh-worst bottom-half batting average in the first half of the season (.221 from the Nos. 5-9 spots at the All-Star break) to the sixth-best average (.256) and second-best OPS (.756) the rest of the way.

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Concern: Clutch hitting

Teoscar Hernández, right, showers Shohei Ohtani with sunflower seeds as Ohtani returns to the dugout after a three-run homer.

First, a caveat: Much like their bottom-half production, the Dodgers’ situational hitting was night-and-day different in the second half of the season.

Before the All-Star break, they ranked in the bottom half of the majors in batting average (.250) and OPS (.740) with runners in scoring position.

But after that, they posted MLB-best marks in both categories (.292 average, .873 OPS), thanks in no small part to Ohtani’s personal improvement in such situations (he was 15 for his last 26 with runners on second or third base).

Nonetheless, memories of the last two Octobers will loom large for the fan base.

The Dodgers were the best situational hitting team in baseball in 2022, only to go five for 34 (.147 average) with runners in scoring position against the San Diego Padres in that year’s NLDS elimination. Last season’s series against the Diamondbacks wasn’t much better, with the team managing to go just four-for-17 (.235) in a three-game sweep.

The addition of Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández, who had six score-tying or go-ahead hits in the seventh inning or later of games, should help. But the remaining cast of characters is largely the same, meaning they’ll need to reverse their fortunes of recent playoff failures to not squander opportunities for rallies at the plate.

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Confidence: The bullpen

The Dodgers didn’t finish the season with a designated closer, though Michael Kopech was summoned for the most save opportunities after being acquired at the trade deadline.

But, they are rich in relief depth, finishing the year with six relievers who posted above-league-average numbers.

The Dodgers are NL West Champions for the 11th time in 12 years. But can they get to the World Series this year?

Blake Treinen enters October on a 15-inning scoreless streak. Alex Vesia’s 1.79 ERA on the season was fifth-best among left-handed MLB relievers. And although Evan Phillips, Daniel Hudson and Ryan Brasier each had ERAs above 5.00 in September, they are all still veteran options with postseason experience.

The big question is how much of a workload the group will be asked to shoulder, and how well they match up against specific playoff opponents.

Overall, the Dodgers’ 3.53 bullpen ERA was fourth-best in the majors. And as long as they aren’t overburdened by the rotation, they have the personnel that should be able to manage.

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Concern: Bottom of the rotation

Dodgers pitcher Landon Knack shows frustration as he pitches during the fourth inning against the Padres at Dodger Stadium.

To make sure the bullpen isn’t overworked, the Dodgers will need Walker Buehler and Landon Knack to rise to the occasion.

As recently as a month ago, neither seemed likely to make the team’s postseason staff. Buehler finished August with a 5.88 ERA, struggling in his return from a second Tommy John surgery. Knack was having a solid rookie season but had been demoted back to triple-A.

Once others started going down because of injuries, however, both right-handed pitchers reentered the equation. Buehler showed flashes of his old swagger (if not quite his old dominance) a few times down the stretch, going at least five innings with two or fewer runs in three of his final five outings, including last week’s division clincher against the Padres. Knack cemented his rotation place after returning to the majors and being given more late-season leash, finishing the year with a 3.65 ERA.

Despite that, the two still enter the postseason with a combined 4-11 record and 4.55 ERA — hardly postseason-caliber stats. Roberts said the Dodgers are also considering using an opener in front of Knack (as they did in Sunday’s regular-season finale), having rarely entrusted the former second-round draft pick to go three times through an opposing batting order.

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Confidence: Home-field advantage

Locale doesn’t always mean much in the playoffs (last year, for example, home teams were 15-26 in October, including the Dodgers’ two losses at Chavez Ravine).

But this year’s Dodgers squad has played notably better in front of its own fans.

Just look at their overall record: 52-29 at home, 46-35 on the road.

Or their pitching splits: A 3.67 team ERA at Dodger Stadium, a 4.21 ERA everywhere else.

Thanks to their MLB-best 98-64 record, the Dodgers assured themselves of home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

That means having a potential NLDS Game 5 in Los Angeles, rather than San Diego, New York or Atlanta. There will be no Game 7 in Philadelphia, either, where the Phillies have arguably the majors’ most daunting home environment.