Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 13 picks

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 9-7 (.563); season 114-62 (.648). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-9-1 (.400); season 82-82-12 (.500).

N.Y. Jets (6-5)

at Washington (4-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Redskins 18, Jets 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 704.

Line: Jets by 3. O/U: 38.

The Redskins are 2-3 at home, but one of those losses came in overtime to the solid Cowboys. The Jets are favored, but it’s hard to bank on them winning any game for sure.

Kansas City (4-7)

at Chicago (7-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bears 22, Chiefs 12

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bears by 7. O/U: 37.

In their last four games, the Chiefs have scored three, 10, three and nine points. Kyle Orton’s return to play Chicago is a good story line, but it won’t make the difference.

Tennessee (6-5)

at Buffalo (5-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Titans 23, Bills 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Bills by 1. O/U: 43.

Chris Johnson came to life last week, and now he’s facing the league’s 21st-ranked run defense. The Bills are taking eyes off the ball with penalties and dropped passes.

Oakland (7-4)

at Miami (3-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Dolphins 24, Raiders 20

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Dolphins by 3. O/U: 43.

The resurgent Dolphins have done an excellent job in recent weeks stopping the run and making plays with their pass defense. Throw in Oakland’s cross-country trip and Miami gets the edge.

Indianapolis (0-11)

at New England (8-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 48, Colts 7

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Patriots by 20. O/U: 48.

A sad shadow of the matchup this used to be, the real intrigue will be whether the Patriots will cover the massive spread. Bill Belichick isn’t likely to take his foot off the pedal.

Cincinnati (7-4)

at Pittsburgh (8-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 21, Bengals 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Steelers by 6. O/U: 42.

The Steelers won by a touchdown in Cincinnati two weeks ago and put a lot of pressure on Andy Dalton in the fourth quarter. Dalton will be better, but winning at Pittsburgh is a tall order.

Denver (6-5)

at Minnesota (2-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Broncos 17, Vikings 15

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Vikings by 1. O/U: 37.

Christian Ponder has shown some elusiveness, and he’s going to have to show a lot of it against Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. Will Tim Tebow wear down another defense in the end?

Carolina (3-8)

at Tampa Bay (4-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 27, Buccaneers 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Buccaneers by 3. O/U: 47.

The Buccaneers haven’t been able to stop the run lately, and that’s a big problem against a quarterback who can make plays with his feet. Can Panthers win consecutive games?

Atlanta (7-4)

at Houston (8-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Falcons 26, Texans 13

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 39.

As good as Houston is at running the ball, the Falcons have the No. 2 rush defense and can’t be overly concerned about third-string rookie T.J. Yates picking them apart.

Baltimore (8-3)

at Cleveland (4-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Ravens 23, Browns 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Ravens by 6. O/U: 38.

The Ravens are at their best against good teams, and at their worst against bad ones. They should win in Cleveland, but these division games are seldom a breeze.

Dallas (7-4)

at Arizona (4-7)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Cowboys 24, Cardinals 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Cowboys by 4. O/U: 45.

Kevin Kolb is back for the Cardinals, although he’s been shaky, and rookie Patrick Peterson makes the return game interesting. But the Cowboys should walk away with the win.

Green Bay (11-0)

at N.Y. Giants (6-5)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Packers 38, Giants 27

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Packers by 7. O/U: 52.

This is the biggest remaining hurdle between the Packers and a 16-0 season. Considering the way Drew Brees picked apart the Giants, Aaron Rodgers should have a big day.

St. Louis (2-9)

at San Francisco (9-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

49ers 27, Rams 13

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: 49ers by 13. O/U: 37.

The 49ers can officially lock up the division with a win, and Jim Harbaugh isn’t going to let them coast at this point. It’s unlikely this will be interesting after halftime.

Detroit (7-4)

at New Orleans (8-3)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

Saints 31, Lions 17

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Saints by 9. O/U: 54.

With or without Ndamukong Suh playing, the Saints would win this game. The Saints are rolling, and Drew Brees has too many ways to score. Lions have lost four of six.

San Diego (4-7)

at Jacksonville (3-8)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Jaguars 23, Chargers 21

TV: ESPN

Line: Chargers by 2. O/U: 39.

The way the Chargers are playing, there’s no reason to pick them at home, let alone on the road. Jacksonville might get one of those post-firing adrenaline boosts after coach Jack Del Rio’s exit.