Here’s what you need to know
Mystik Dan’s trainer and jockey are all smiles after victory
LOUISVLLE, Ky. — The margin was a nose but the smiles were a mile wide. In one of the closest finishes in almost 30 years, Mystik Dan won the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby.
The horse was generally overlooked by most but he ran a smart race on the rail and poked his head in front in the final strides to hold off Sierra Leone and Forever Young in the blanket finish.
It also completed a rare double for trainer Kenny McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez, who also won the Kentucky Oaks on Friday with Thorpedo Anna. It was only the fourth time that has been done.
“That was the longest few minutes in my life I’ve spent waiting for them to hang the dang number up,” Hernandez said.
McPeek was effusive with his praise for Hernandez.
“Brian did an amazing job,” McPeek said. “He’s just a brilliant, brilliant, brilliant jockey. He’s probably one of the most underrated riders in the business. But not anymore.”
Mystik Dan wins the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby
Mystik Dan won by less than a nose over Sierra Leone to win the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday.
Mystik Dan entered the race at 17-1 odds. It was the first Kentucky Derby win for jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.
Forever Young finished third and and Catching Freedom was fourth.
Mystik Dan pulled ahead down the final stretch and was able to just hold off late charges by Sierra Leone, the No. 2 pre-race favorite, and the Japanese horse Forever Young, which finished a nose behind Sierra Leone.
Fierceness, the pre-race favorite at 3-1 odds, faded down the stretch and finished 15th.
Final hour betting odds: Sierra Leone moves closer to favorite Fierceness
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — With the race less than an hour before the start, Sierra Leone has moved closer to Fierceness for the favorite spot. Sierra Leone has been at 5-1 all day but inched to 9-2. Fierceness remains at 7-2. Forever Young is still at 6-1 and Catching Freedom at 8-1.
A bit of a surprise is the Santa Anita Derby winner, Stronghold, is at 36-1.
Here are the odds with one hour to post time:
1-Dornach 22-1
2-Sierra Leone 9-2
3-Mystik Dan 17-1
4-Catching Freedom 8-1
5-Catalytic 32-1
6-Just Steel 22-1
7-Honor Marie 14-1
8-Just a Touch 11-1
9-Encino (Scratched)
10-T O Password 46-1
11-Forever Young 6-1
12-Track Phantom 41-1
13-West Saratoga 22-1
14-Endlessly 46-1
15-Domestic Product 28-1
16-Grand Mo the First 45-1
17-Fierceness 7-2
18-Stronghold 36-1
19-Resilience 30-1
20-Society Man 45-1
21-Epic Ride 45-1
Trainer Phil D’Amato realizes his Kentucky Derby dream thanks to Stronghold
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — It’s really quite simple. If you’re in horse racing, regardless of your job or position, you want to get to the Kentucky Derby. But the reality is very few make it.
Phil D’Amato has won multiple training titles at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He’s had 32 starts in the Breeders’ Cup. He’s missing only one thing from his rather impressive resume and that box will be checked Saturday when the gates open in the 12th race at Churchill Downs.
“This is pretty much what I’ve worked my whole career to get to this point,” D’Amato said. “It’s been my dream to have a horse in the Kentucky Derby. And to finally achieve that, I’m still taking it one day at a time. I can’t really put it into feelings. And to be able to share it with my friends, family and owners, it’s just a good feeling.”
When he talks about his “whole career” you are talking years, not decades. The 48-year-old Los Angeles native has been a head trainer only since 2014 when he took over the barn of the late Mike Mitchell. That’s not that long of a wait, unless, of course, you are the one waiting.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Epic Ride (Post 20)
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Owner: Welch Racing
Purchase price: $160,000
Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1
Winnings: $253,166
Derby points: 35
Last race: Third in the Blue Grass Stakes
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: Epic Ride got into the race when Encino was scratched. When that happens after the draw, it’s called an “also eligible.” Conventional wisdom would say that an AE can’t win the race. But, we’re only a couple years removed from Rich Strike, who also scratched into the race and won the Kentucky Derby at extremely long odds. He’s better than at least a handful of horses in the race. Four of his five races have been run on the synthetic surface at Turfway. He has got some early speed and may challenge for the lead. The question with a lot of these horses is if he has the distance.
Two Southern California horses nearly win at Churchill Downs
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Even though all the attention is on the big race there are several major undercard races, some of which include horses from Southern California.
Perhaps the best performance came from Formidable Man in the Grade 2 $600,000 American Turf, a 1 1/16 mile race for 3-year-olds. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the colt went to the lead and kept it all the way around before faltering in the stretch and losing by 1½ lengths to Trikari.
“He ran very well, I’m very proud of him,” McCarthy said. “First time traveling, big crowd like this, the horse ran well and was a game second. … I thought he was too big of a number on the odds board (24-1), but he’s obviously a horse who is on his way up. [On the lead] is kind of where we wanted him. I told [jockey] Luis [Saez] to go ahead and put him in the game and I thought Luis rode him wonderfully.”
Interestingly, the winning jockey on Trikari was Umberto Rispoli, who rides in Southern California.
Another Santa Anita-based horse who almost won was Vlahos, who finished third in the Grade 2 $600,000 Pat Day Mile. He led most of the race but got run down by Seize the Grey and Nash.
He is trained by Doug O’Neill and was ridden by Edwin Maldonado.
“I thought I was going to be able to make the rail, but they pushed me outside,” Maldonado said. “He gave everything he had. At the eighth pole he changed leads on me. He was out of gas but he still kept trying. Heck of a race for a horse going a mile for the first time.”
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Society Man (Post 19)
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Owner: Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, West Paces Racing, GMP Stables, Carl F. Pascarella and Yurie Pascarella
Purchase price: $85,000
Lifetime record: 5-1-1-1
Winnings: $196,705
Derby points: 50
Last race: Second in the Wood Memorial
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: This horse is interesting for one reason — his jockey, Frankie Dettori. If this were a television movie the story would be about this 106-1 shot finishing second in the Wood Memorial. He goes to the Derby, picks up Dettori and magic happens. Well, don’t count on it. He is the only gelding in the race and has only one win, a maiden race just before the Wood. This will be his first race outside of New York.
Latest betting odds: Win pool is up to $30.9 million
LOUISVILLE, Ky.— The odds haven’t fluctuated much with post time closing in. There has been $30.984 million pushed in the win pool, $12.137 million in the exacta pool (first and second) and $15.733 million in the trifecta pool (first, second and third).
There is also a superfecta bet, first through fourth, but it just doesn’t have the popularity of the trifecta. The super, as it’s known, only has $125,991 in its pool.
As for the favorites, it remains unchanged: Fierceness, Sierra Leone and Forever Young.
Here are the odds with two hours to post time:
1-Dornach 21-1
2-Sierra Leone 5-1
3-Mystik Dan 16-1
4-Catching Freedom 8-1
5-Catalytic 32-1
6-Just Steel 22-1
7-Honor Marie 13-1
8-Just a Touch 10-1
9-Encino (scratched)
10-T O Password 47-1
11-Forever Young 6-1
12-Track Phantom 41-1
13-West Saratoga 23-1
14-Endlessly 47-1
15-Domestic Product 28-1
16-Grand Mo the First 45-1
17-Fierceness 7-2
18-Stronghold 36-1
19-Resilience 29-1
20-Society Man 46-1
21-Epic Ride 44-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Fierceness (Post 16)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owner: Repole Stables
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 5-3-0-1
Winnings: $1,703,850
Derby points: 136
Last race: Won the Florida Derby
Morning line: 5-2
Comment: If he runs his race, he should win. And, based on past performances, if he doesn’t win he might not even hit the board. People are wondering if he is a “bounce” horse, meaning he runs great every other time. In this case, the Kentucky Derby is the “other” race. His last race was a 13 ½-length win in the Florida Derby. If jockey John Velazquez pushed him down the stretch, it would have been an even bigger win. Velazquez has won the Derby three times and is considered one of the best jockeys at rating a horse on the lead as evidenced by his win on National Treasure in the Preakness last year. It would be the first Derby win for owner Mike Repole, who sinks millions of dollars every year in buying horses, all in the hopes of winning the Kentucky Derby.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Grand Mo the First (Post 15)
Trainer: Victor Barboza Jr.
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo
Owner: Granpollo Stables
Purchase price: $135,000
Lifetime record: 5-2-0-4
Winnings: $214,650
Derby points: 40
Last race: Third in the Florida Derby
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: Grand Mo the First needed some dropouts to get in the race. He hasn’t won in 2024 nor does he have a stakes win. His first two races were wins on synthetic turf at Gulfstream Park. He then went to Santa Anita and finished third in the Zuma Beach (where his dirt career started), leading to three consecutive third-place finishes. The colt was a distant third in the Florida Derby behind Fierceness. He does seem to find trouble whenever he runs. There is little to indicate he has what it takes to win against this field at 50-1 morning-line odds.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Domestic Product (Post 14)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 5-2-1-0
Derby points: 60
Winnings: $314,200
Last race: Won the Tampa Bay Derby
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: No question this colt should be well rested after not running for eight weeks. His last race was a win in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 9. He has had six timed works since then, two of them bullets (fastest of all horses at that distance). He also has Hall of Fame jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle, although Ortiz is winless in seven Derby mounts. He beat Fierceness in the Holy Bull. In short, all these factors make him a big question mark.
Latest betting odds: Just Steel shifts two points
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Another $5 million was poured into the win pool in the past hour, upping its total to $24.378 million. Fierceness is holding steady at 7-2, a number he’s been at for the past six hours. Sierra Leone is second at 5-1 followed by Forever Young at 6-1.
It’s unusual to have swings of more than one point with this much money in the win pool, but there were two in the past hour. Just Steel went from 25-1 to 23-1 and Society Man dropped from 48-1 to 46-1. The longest shot on the board is T O Password, who qualified from Japan and is at 48-1.
Here are the odds with three hours to post time:
1-Dornach 22-1
2-Sierra Leone 5-1
3-Mystik Dan 15-1
4-Catching Freedom 8-1
5-Catalytic 32-1
6-Just Steel 23-1
7-Honor Marie 13-1
8-Just a Touch 10-1
9-Encino (Scratched)
10-T O Password 48-1
11-Forever Young 6-1
12-Track Phantom 41-1
13-West Saratoga 23-1
14-Endlessly 47-1
15-Domestic Product 27-1
16-Grand Mo the First 45-1
17-Fierceness 7-2
18-Stronghold 35-1
19-Resilience 28-1
20-Society Man 46-1
21-Epic Ride 45-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Endlessly (Post 13)
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Owner: Amerman Racing Stables
Purchase price: $25,000
Lifetime record: 6-5-0-0
Winnings: $707,200
Derby points: 100
Last race: Won the Jeff Ruby Steaks
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: The big question mark on this horse is he has never run on the dirt. His first four races were on the turf and the last two on synthetic. With that said, he has won five of six starts. His last race was the Jeff Ruby Steaks, which he easily won by four lengths. His trainer, Michael McCarthy, didn’t want to run in the Derby, but the owners did. Those that pay the bills often win those arguments. The horse also won the last El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields, which gives him an entry into the Preakness Stakes.
A year later, racing is still trying to make sense of Churchill Downs deaths
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Last year’s Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs saw 143 horses enter the starting gate. Most will remember Mage, who crossed the finish line first in the world’s most famous race. But forgotten by all who didn’t known them were Chloe’s Dream and Freezing Point, who never made it to the finish line, who never made it back to their stall, who were euthanized after suffering life-ending injuries and were the sixth and seventh fatalities in 10 days.
Racing continued at the storied track until the death count reached 12 and racing ceased at Churchill Downs on June 4, when it was moved to nearby Ellis Park for the remainder of the meeting. The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) issued a 197-page report about the fatalities on Sept. 12. It was filled with charts and graphs and all the things they teach in presentation school. What it didn’t have was a singular reason for the rash of deaths.
“It’s not like we didn’t uncover the causes,” said Lisa Lazarus, who runs HISA. “It’s that there wasn’t one singular factor that caused each of the fatalities. But we did learn a whole lot from the investigation and the data we’ve been collecting. With that we’ve been working very closely with Churchill Downs to enhance what was already a very rigorous safety protocol process.”
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: West Saratoga (Post 12)
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Jockey: Jesus Castanon
Owner: Harry L. Veruchi
Purchase price: $11,000
Lifetime record: 10-2-5-1
Winnings: $460,140
Derby Points: 67
Last race: Second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: The story might be better than the horse. Larry Demeritte is only the fourth Black trainer to run in the Kentucky Derby since the Depression. He runs a small stable and has made only 14 starts this year. The horse has been busy, running 10 races lifetime. The road to the Derby started Sept. 16 with the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. West Saratoga won it by 1¾ lengths. There is not a lot to show he can run at this competition level, the same thing you would have said about Rich Strike in 2022.
Kentucky Derby track conditions upgraded
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Before the seventh race the track condition was upgraded from muddy to good and then one race later it was upped again to fast, the top rating for a dirt surface.
No doubt, the lack of expected rain played a major role in the track’s condition. Both the track and the bettors prefer a fast track, but because there is not a specific machine that determines a track’s condition it’s left up to humans to give it a designation. So, these things are a judgment call.
Through the years, the track has been rated fast 104 times, good 11 times, muddy seven times and sloppy nine times. There are other designations, some of which aren’t used anymore.
Only three times in the 2000s has the track not been fast. It was muddy when Orb won in 2013, Justify won in 2018 and Country House won by disqualification in 2019.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Track Phantom (Post 11)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owner: L & L Racing, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom and Breeze Easy
Purchase price: $500,000
Derby points: 70
Lifetime record: 7-3-2-1
Winnings: $405,000
Last race: Fourth in the Louisiana Derby
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: Trainer Steve Asmussen is the best trainer to have never won the Kentucky Derby. It’s a statistical oddity that the all-time winningest trainer is 0-25 in the biggest race in the sport. It’s not looking good for a win this year. Track Phantom’s only style is running on the front, and he usually comes up short at longer distances. His three wins came at 1 1/16 miles, and he faltered when going 1 1/8 and 1 3/16 miles. He finished fourth in the Louisiana Derby. He is adding blinkers, which might be seen as a desperation move to get him to go longer. He did break his maiden at Churchill Downs.
Latest betting odds: Fierceness remains the favorite, but that may not be good fortune
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Barring a strange change in betting patterns, Fierceness will be the favorite in the 150th Kentucky Derby. Is that a good thing? The last five years the favorite has not won the race. The last one to win was Justify, who went on to win the Triple Crown, in 2018.
In the last hour, $4 million more was bet to win on the Derby. That number will grow with every hour until post time. The win pool is at $19.455 million. By comparison, the place pool (first or second) is at $4.383 million and the show pool (first, second or third) is at $4.386 million.
Here are the odds with four hours to post time:
1-Dornach 22-1
2-Sierra Leone 5-1
3-Mystik Dan 15-1
4-Catching Freedom 8-1
5-Catalytic 32-1
6-Just Steel 25-1
7-Honor Marie 13-1
8-Just a Touch 10-1
9-Encino (scratched)
10-T O Password 48-1
11-Forever Young 6-1
12-Track Phantom 41-1
13-West Saratoga 23-1
14-Endlessly 48-1
15-Domestic Product 27-1
16-Grand Mo the First 44-1
17-Fierceness 7-2
18-Stronghold 35-1
19-Resilience 29-1
20-Society Man 48-1
21-Epic Ride 45-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Forever Young (Post 10)
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Owner: Susumu Fugita
Purchase price: $729,603
Lifetime record: 5-5-0-0
Winnings: $2,049,451
Derby points: 100
Last race: Winner of the UAE Derby
Morning line: 10-1
Comment: This is the horse where people have the biggest difference of opinions. The conventional wisdom is that you automatically throw out a horse that comes from the Middle East because they are 0-18 in the Derby. But at some point a Japanese horse, usually running in Dubai or Saudi Arabia, will eventually win the Kentucky Derby. So is this the year? This colt looks pretty good as he is undefeated in five starts and won both the Saudi Derby and the UAE Derby. Before that he won three races in Japan. This will be the first Derby start for both the trainer and jockey. However, trainer Yoshito Yahagi has won two Breeders’ Cup races, both in the same year at Del Mar. The move from the 11 to the 10 gate means he went from being the first horse loaded to the last horse to go in the gate, so there won’t be a lot of standing around. The Derby uses a double-load system where two horses are loaded at the same time.
Kentucky Derby track conditions upgraded ahead of big race
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The track was upgraded from sloppy to good before the seventh race. The rain has stayed away so far on Saturday and The Weather Channel has also dropped the rain chances into the teens. At 7 p.m., the time of the Derby, the chance of precipitation is now 10% with a temperature of 79 degrees.
A sloppy track is one that is wet but has no standing water. A good track is one that has not completely dried out and is not as consistent as a fast track. Assigning a track condition is mostly noticed by handicappers but not that important to the general public.
Some horses run better on wet tracks while others slip and slide and hate running in the slop.
Mystik Dan, running from the 3 in the Derby, won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn by eight lengths, so he would be looked at if the track were wet. And Sierra Leone, in the 2, won the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds on a sloppy track.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Stronghold (Post 17)
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Owner: Sharon and Rick Waller
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 6-3-3-0
Winnings: $827,200
Derby points: 125
Last race: Won the Santa Anita Derby
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: When Encino was scratched, Stronghold moved from the 18th gate to the 17th, which has never had a winner in 44 tries. He got his first win in a maiden race at Churchill Downs, where he beat two other Derby horses, Resilience and Track Phantom. Given his somewhat light schedule there is a good chance we haven’t seen his best yet. He won a good stretch battle with Imagination in the Santa Anita Derby. This is the first Derby for both Phil D’Amato and Antonio Fresu. Just being the Santa Anita Derby winner gives you some gravitas, but his best race is not likely to beat the best race of Fierceness or Sierra Leone.
Future of California horse racing does not look bright
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Phil D’Amato is the only California trainer with a horse in the Kentucky Derby. It’s his first Derby, but will it be his last one as a California trainer.
It’s no secret that California racing is in distress with low purses, low attendance and a shrinking number of horses. Without supplemental gaming income the future is not very bright. In fact, Golden Gate, in its final days, has been scheduling racing only two days a week.
D’Amato was at his barn on Wednesday talking casually to two reporters from California and one from Kentucky, mostly about Stronghold. He wasn’t trying to hint at anything, just answering questions.
He was asked about the future of racing in California.
“I think everybody in California is worried about it,” D’Amato said. “But we’re all, at the same time, trying to work together to see if we can get it going back in the right direction. California definitely is a beautiful place to train, the weather’s great, [I was] born and raised there. So definitely, I would like to see California racing keep going.
“At the same point and time, you’ve got to always look for the future. In Kentucky, these purses are incredible. So, you’ve got to always have your foot in the door over here to take advantage of all Kentucky has to offer.”
Foot in the door, or out the door?
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: T O Password (Post 9)
Trainer: Daisuke Takayangi
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Owner: Tomoya Ozasa
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0
Winnings: $163,339
Derby points: Won the Fukuryu Stakes
Last race: Won handicap in Japan
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: This colt has had only two races, both in Japan. He qualified by winning the Japan Road to the Derby series. His jockey, Kazushi Kimura, ran in this race last year, finishing 12th on Mandarin Hero. He is based in the U.S. and has been riding at Santa Anita. He should go to the front and could be a factor in setting the pace. It would certainly be a surprise if he hit the board.
Latest betting odds: Bets on favorite Fierceness tick closer to $3 million
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Once again, no significant movement on the tote board as to who will be the post time favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Catching Freedom did tick down from 8-1 to 7-1, just behind Forever Young for the third favorite spot.
Fierceness at $2.776 million bet to win on him is the favorite and Sierra Leone is the only other horse with more than $2 million bet on him at $2.037 million. The total win pool has been going up about $2 million an hour and is now at $15.416 million.
Here are the odds with five hours to post time:
1-Dornach 22-1
2-Sierra Leone 5-1
3-Mystik Dan 15-1
4-Catching Freedom 7-1
5-Catalytic 32-1
6-Just Steel 25-1
7-Honor Marie 12-1
8-Just a Touch 10-1
9-Encino (scratched)
10-T O Password 49-1
11-Forever Young 6-1
12-Track Phantom 40-1
13-West Saratoga 23-1
14-Endlessly 48-1
15-Domestic Product 28-1
16-Grand Mo the First 44-1
17-Fierceness 7-2
18-Stronghold 34-1
19-Resilience 29-1
20-Society Man 47-1
21-Epic Ride 46-1
Resilience’s Kentucky Derby hopes carry a memory and a legacy
A little after 6 p.m. on Saturday, Resilience will be pulled from his stall in Barn 19 and readied for the walk from the backside to the paddock at Churchill Downs. He’ll be accompanied by his trainer, Bill Mott, who will make the walk for the 11th time with his 13th entrant in the Kentucky Derby.
Also in tow will be owners Emily Bushnell and Ric Waldman, each making the storied stroll for the first time. But missing will be the person who made Resilience possible, who made Wall Street dreams for many probable and who, at one time, was the king of California thoroughbred breeders.
Martin Wygod died in La Jolla on April 12 after struggling with lung disease. Emily is his daughter and Ric is his longtime bloodstock agent. Resilience was not an inheritance gift by Wygod, the horse was free.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Just a Touch (Post 8)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owner: Qatar Racing, Resolute Racing and Marc Detampel
Purchase price: $300,000
Lifetime record: 3-1-2-0
Winnings: $281,700
Derby points: 75
Last race: Second in the Blue Grass Stakes
Morning line: 10-1
Comment: He is a son of Justify, and like his father, did not run as a 2-year-old. In fact, next to the Japanese horse T O Password, he is the most lightly raced horse in the race. When speaking to the media, trainer Brad Cox lights up, showing his belief that the horse has a significant upside. He battled Sierra Leone to a strong second in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has never run a bad race, although he has run only three times. He’s also getting some interest from the wiseguy crowd (bettors).
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Resilience (Post 18)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Owner: Emily Bushnell and Rick Waldman
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 6-2-1-1
Winnings: $494,630
Derby points: 110
Last race: Won the Wood Memorial
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: The Wood Memorial has not been a great predictor of Kentucky Derby success as of late. But the backstory of co-owner Emily Bushnell being gifted the horse by her father, Marty Wygod, as a yearling is a true pull-on-your-heartstrings story. Wygod died last month. But, great stories don’t necessarily win races. The colt does benefit from having trainer Bill Mott. But, his only other win besides the Wood was a maiden. He was also beaten in a maiden at Churchill Downs by Stronghold. Do you believe in miracles?
Latest betting odds: So far, $13.019 million has been bet on the Kentucky Derby
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — As the big race gets closer and the betting starts to increase, it gets more difficult to change the odds because there is so much money in the mutuel pool. The order of the top horses has not changed since the morning. Fierceness is at 7-2, up from his 5-2 morning line number. Sierra Leone is still 5-1 and Forever Young is 6-1. If Forever Young wins, he’ll be the first horse to win both in the Middle East and the Derby. He would also be the first horse bred in Japan to win the race.
So far, $13.019 million has been bet to win on the race. The exacta pool is $5.942 million and $7.528 million has been bet on trifectas.
Here are the odds with six hours to post time:
1-Dornach 22-1
2-Sierra Leone 5-1
3-Mystik Dan 15-1
4-Catching Freedom 8-1
5-Catalytic 33-1
6-Just Steel 25-1
7-Honor Marie 12-1
8-Just a Touch 10-1
9-Encino (Scratched)
10-T O Password 49-1
11-Forever Young 6-1
12-Track Phantom 40-1
13-West Saratoga 24-1
14-Endlessly 48-1
15-Domestic Product 29-1
16-Grand Mo the First 44-1
17-Fierceness 7-2
18-Stronghold 34-1
19-Resilience 29-1
20-Society Man 48-1
21-Epic Ride 46-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Honor Marie (Post 7)
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Ben Curtis
Owner: Ribble Farms, Michael H. Eiserman, Earl I. Silver, Kenneth E. Fishbein and Dave Fishbein
Purchase price: $40,000
Lifetime record: 5-2-2-0
Winnings: $526,175
Derby points: 65
Last race: Second in the Louisiana Derby
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: If you haven’t heard of Whit Beckman, it’s because it’s his first Derby as the head trainer. But, he has been here before as an assistant for both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown. The horse’s jockey, Ben Curtis, is also making his first Derby appearance. The colt has won twice over the Churchill surface, first in his maiden win and then in the Kentucky Jockey Club, a Grade 2 victory. He won’t be as far back as other closers, so you can probably expect to see him mid-pack before making his move. He might draw some interest from the wiseguy crowd (professional gamblers).
Will Taylor Swift attend the Kentucky Derby?
LOUISVILLE, Ky . — The second most asked question at Churchill Downs on Saturday, right behind “Who will win the Derby?” is “Will Taylor Swift be at the Derby?”
While this could be seen as a shameless attempt to get people to read this item, there is a bit of plausibility to the rumor.
You see, Travis Kelce is in Louisville and was hanging out with The Chainsmokers on Friday night. He plans to be at the Derby. Swift was doing a concert in The Netherlands on Friday, but she does have a private jet and she’s not scheduled to perform again until Thursday in France.
Whether it is worth it to fly the almost 5,000 miles to see her boyfriend is a question that is currently unanswerable.
But if she does show up, will it be a bigger deal than when Queen Elizabeth II showed up at the Derby in 2007? Guess it depends on how you define “bigger deal.”
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Just Steel (Post 6)
Trainer: Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Keith Asmussen
Owner: BC Stables and Henry Schmueckle
Purchase price: $500,000
Lifetime record: 11-2-4-1
Winnings: $724,545
Derby points: 65
Last race: Second in the Arkansas Derby
Morning line: 8-1
Comment: If experience is the winning formula, then this horse should be a lock. But that’s not the case. Wayne Lukas likes to run his horses as evidenced by the 11 starts. There is a question of whether this horse can go the distance. He is a Justify horse, but Justify’s progeny have performed best on turf. Definitely a long shot despite the presence of Lukas.
NBC holds off Fox, will broadcast Kentucky Derby through 2032
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — It was a race that was over even before it started. There was a lot of speculation that Fox was trying to grab all the Triple Crown races, especially after getting the Belmont Stakes.
But NBC beat them to the punch and announced that the Kentucky Derby will remain with the network through 2032. The financial terms were not disclosed. The television rights for the Preakness, which is also on NBC, expire next year. The Kentucky Derby has been on NBC since 2001.
“Telling the rich stories surrounding the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May is part of the fabric of NBC Sports, and we are thrilled to continue that tradition with Churchill Downs,” said NBC Sports president Rick Cordella in a statement. “We look forward to surrounding the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby with wall-to-wall coverage and extensive promotion on the platforms of NBCUniversal.”
NBC has assembled a smart group of analysts headed by Jerry Bailey and Randy Moss. It also uses part-time Del Mar race caller Larry Collmus to call its two Triple Crown races and the Breeders’ Cup.
It was thought that Fox wanted in the racing game in a bigger way, especially after buying 25% of NYRA Bets, the advance deposit wagering arm of the New York Racing Assn.
Another betting angle for the 150th Kentucky Derby
One of the more talked about betting angles is to look at what races produce the most Kentucky Derby winners. It’s no secret that the Florida Derby is by far the best predictor with 25 wins. Ray Paulick of the Paulick Report, in conjunction FanDuel, put together the list below.
The list of races and number of Kentucky Derby winners is supplemented with the horse that won it this year, only if they are in the race. If the space is blank, the winner didn’t make it to Saturday or the race no longer exists.
Florida Derby, 25: Fierceness
Blue Grass, 23: Sierra Leone
Wood Memorial, 20: Resilience
Santa Anita Derby, 19: Stronghold
Fountain of Youth, 14: Dornoch
San Felipe, 13
Arkansas Derby, 7
Louisiana Derby, 5: Catching Freedom
Holy Bull, 3
Hutcheson, 3
Jeff Ruby Steaks, 3: Endlessly
Rebel, 3
Risen Star, 3: Sierra Leone
Robert B. Lewis, 3
Bay Shore, 2
Lecomte, 2: Track Phantom
Lexington, 2
Sham, 2
Southwest, 2: Mystic Dan
Tampa Bay Derby, 2: Domestic Product
El Camino Real Derby, 1: Endlessly
Gotham, 1
Gunn Runner, 1
John Battaglia, 1
Palm Beach, 1
Sunland Derby, 1: Stronghold
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Catalytic (Post 5)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Owner: Tami Bobo, Julie Davies and George G. Isaacs
Purchase price: $125,000
Lifetime record: 3-1-2-0
Winnings: $216,825
Derby points: 50
Last race: Second in the Florida Derby
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. was suspended last year during Derby time when two of his non-Derby horses died of sudden death. No cause was found. He’s very lightly raced with only three starts and no win since he broke his maiden last year. Jose Ortiz will be his fourth jockey in as many starts, not a good sign. Fierceness won the Florida Derby so convincingly, no one was paying attention to the rest of the field in which Catalytic finished second.
Latest betting odds hold steady
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — There was very little movement in the odds during the last hour and all the top horses remained the same. Endlessly’s odds got bigger as he moved from 48-1 to 49-1. And Grand Mo the First climbed from 44-1 to 45-1.
So far, $10.133 million has been bet to win on the Derby. There are three horses that have had more than a million wagered on them. They are Fierceness at $1.812 million, Sierra Leone with $1.364 million and Forever Young at $1.091 million.
Here are the odds with seven hours to post time:
1-Dornach 21-1
2-Sierra Leone 5-1
3-Mystik Dan 15-1
4-Catching Freedom 7-1
5-Catalytic 33-1
6-Just Steel 26-1
7-Honor Marie 12-1
8-Just a Touch 11-1
9-Encino (scratched)
10-T O Password 49-1
11-Forever Young 6-1
12-Track Phantom 40-1
13-West Saratoga 24-1
14-Endlessly 49-1
15-Domestic Product 28-1
16-Grand Mo the First 45-1
17-Fierceness 7-2
18-Stronghold 34-1
19-Resilience 29-1
20-Society Man 48-1
21-Epic Ride 47-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Catching Freedom (Post 4)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Purchase price: $575,000
Lifetime record: 5-3-0-1
Winnings: $877,350
Derby points: 125
Last race: Won the Louisiana Derby
Morning line: 8-1
Comment: This colt is a lot like Sierra Leone in that he finishes strong. But he will offer a much better return for bettors if he wins. He went from 11th to win the Louisiana Derby. The six-week layoff shouldn’t hurt him based on current training methods. Both the trainer and jockey have won the Kentucky Derby but not in the traditional way. Brad Cox won when Medina Spirit was disqualified and Mandaloun was elevated to first. Country House, who never won another race, was the winner when Maximum Security was disqualified and Flavien Prat had his first and only Derby win.
Inside the numbers: Kentucky Derby horse ratings
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — In an effort to help you pick a winner, or at least narrow things down, lets look at some numbers from Brisnet.com, the data company owned by Churchill Downs Inc.
For every race it shows individual categories that can help you better judge a horse. Here are the top five and the bottom five of each category to help you evaluate who to keep and who to toss. There are no stats on the two Japanese horses, T O Password and Forever Young, so they are not included.
Speed rating from each horse’s last race
Best: Fierceness (106), Resilience (104), Society Man (102), Sierra Leone (101), Catching Freedom (100).
Worst: Domestic Product (84), West Saratoga (87), Grand Mo the First (88), Catalytic (90), Endlessly (91).
Average class rating from last three races
Best: Fierceness (120.2), Sierra Leone (120.0), Dornoch (118.3), Just a Touch (118.1), Catching Freedom (118.0).
Worst: West Saratoga (115.2), Society Man (115.4), Grand Mo the First (115.6), Domestic Product (115.9), Catalytic (115.9).
Prime power rating
Best: Just a Touch (148.7), Fierceness (148.5), Sierra Leone (147.6), Dornoch (146.4), Track Phantom (144.7).
Worst: Domestic Product (120.9), Grand Mo the First (130.7), West Saratoga (134.7), Catalytic (134.7), Honor Marie (136.8).
Early pace rating from last race
Best: Just a Touch (103), Dornoch (101), Epic Ride (101), Resilience (99), Track Phantom (94).
Worst: Domestic Product (49), Catching Freedom (78), Grand Mo the First (81), Honor Marie (81), Mystic Dan (81).
Late pace rating from last race
Best: Domestic Product (125), Fierceness (113), Catching Freedom (101), Resilience (98), Sierra Leone (97).
Worst: Epic Ride (76), Dornoch (76), West Saratoga (80), Track Phantom (82), Just a Touch (83).
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Mystik Dan (Post 3)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Owner: Lance Gasaway, 4G Racing, Danile Hamby III and Valley View Farm
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 6-2-1-1
Winnings: $641,360
Derby points: 46
Last race: Third in the Arkansas Derby
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: This horse looms big if there is a wet track, which isn’t expected, but it’s Kentucky. That assessment is based on his performance in winning the Southwest at Oaklawn by eighth lengths over a muddy track. But the track surface aside, he may not have the stamina to go to 1 ¼ miles. His best race was a 5 ½ furlong win at Churchill in his second start as a maiden. It would be an uphill climb for him to contend for the win.
Derby track opens the day sloppy, but conditions could improve
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The water that turned Friday’s Churchill Downs racing surface into a quagmire did not dry out as much as racing officials had hoped. The first race on Saturday had a sloppy designation. On Friday, it was muddy.
The different designations can be confusing. A dirt track that is in its best shape is called “fast.” It’s the preferable way that races are run. The next step down is “good,” which means the track isn’t fast, but it’s not terrible. If the rain is light or stays away, the track may get to good by the time the Derby begins. It would take magic to get to fast.
The next designation below good is “muddy,” which means that the track is wet but there is no standing water. The lowest designation is “sloppy,” which is given when there is standing water on the track.
There are two designations for the turf. The best is “firm,” meaning exactly what it says, and then there is “good,” which means the grass is in top form and might even be slippery. If it goes below that, the race is taken off the turf.
Fierceness ticks up in latest betting odds
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — In the past hour, Fierceness ticked up to 7-2 from 3-1 but remains the Kentucky Derby favorite. Sierra Leone is still the second choice at 5-1, with Forever Young holding steady at 6-1. There was some action on Catching Freedom, who went from 8-1 to 7-1.
Other movers included West Saratoga, who went from 26-1 to 24-1 and Endlessly, who lost some sentiment going from 46-1 to 48-1.
Here are the odds with eight hours to post time:
1-Dornach 21-1
2-Sierra Leone 5-1
3-Mystik Dan 15-1
4-Catching Freedom 7-1
5-Catalytic 33-1
6-Just Steel 26-1
7-Honor Marie 12-1
8-Just a Touch 11-1
9-Encino (scratched)
10-T O Password 49-1
11-Forever Young 6-1
12-Track Phantom 40-1
13-West Saratoga 24-1
14-Endlessly 48-1
15-Domestic Product 28-1
16-Grand Mo the First 44-1
17-Fierceness 7-2
18-Stronghold 34-1
19-Resilience 29-1
20-Society Man 48-1
21-Epic Ride 47-1
Horse racing is looking to move on from Bob Baffert-Churchill Downs feud
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Kentucky Derby 150, just like 149 and 148, will be run without trainer Bob Baffert, the most recognizable name in the sport, even to those who don’t follow it. And, for the first time, none of his horses were moved to other trainers, meaning the race won’t have all the best horses in it.
The overwhelming number of people who attend the Derby are not there to see a great horse race but attend an epic party with hats. But to those who do care about the racing, the sentiment of who is the villain and who is the victim may be shifting in the now three-year fight between Baffert and Churchill Downs.
“It’s very split, you’ve got half the people who say keep the ‘cheater’ out, we don’t want him,” said Louis Rabaut, host of Rabaut & Co. on ESPN Louisville radio and co-host of the Horse Racing Happy Hour. “The other half is, ‘We want the best horses here.’ It’s been long enough.
“Obviously it’s not the issues they are talking about anymore. I’m thinking last year it was about 80% that we’re glad he’s not here but this year it’s 50-50, that’s a big shift.”
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Sierra Leone (Post 2)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Owner: Peter M. Brant, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg and Brook T. Smith
Purchase price: $2.3 million
Lifetime record: 4-3-1-0
Winnings: $918,000
Derby points: 155
Last race: Won the Blue Grass Stakes
Morning line: 3-1
Comment: Sierra Leone has won three of his four races with his only loss in the Remsen Stakes by a nose to Dornoch. But a lot of people will point to his race in the Blue Grass Stakes, where he wouldn’t go into the gate, holding up the start. His jockey said the crowd noise at Keeneland was bothering him. Well, Keeneland and Churchill Downs on Derby Day are two very different situations and not to his benefit. Another problem is he comes from behind, and in a 20-horse field from an inside post the situation gets even tougher. He needs a speed duel up front to have a chance in the stretch. All that said the $2.3-million purchase is the second favorite.
Fierceness remains favorite as early betting starts
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — As early betting starts for the 150th Kentucky Derby, Fierceness is the favorite at 3-1, just off the morning line odds of 5-2. Sierra Leone is second at 5-1. The surprise is the action that the Japanese horse is taking — Forever Young, 10-1 on the morning line, is 6-1 and the third betting choice:
A horse that has shipped from the Middle East has never won the Derby . But, apparently, bettors are thinking this might be the year all of that changes.
The lone California horse, Stronghold, isn’t getting a lot of action, coming in at 32-1 off a 20-1 morning line.
Here are the odds with nine hours to post time.
1-Dornach 21-1
2-Sierra Leone 5-1
3-Mystik Dan 15-1
4-Catching Freedom 8-1
5-Catalytic 34-1
6-Just Steel 25-1
7-Honor Marie 12-1
8-Just a Touch 11-1
9-Encino (scratched)
10-T O Password 49-1
11-Forever Young 6-1
12-Track Phantom 40-1
13-West Saratoga 26-1
14-Endlessly 46-1
15-Domestic Product 29-1
16-Grand Mo the First 45-1
17-Fierceness 3-1
18-Stronghold 32-1
19-Resilience 28-1
20-Society Man 49-1
21-Epic Ride 47-1
Intermittent rain in the forecast for Churchill Downs
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — It’s unclear what the racing surface will look like for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. There shouldn’t be any torrential downpours but the weather forecast does show intermittent rain throughout the day. On Friday’s Kentucky Oaks day the track was sloppy and some horses had trouble handling the surface.
According to The Weather Channel, the first hint of rain should be around 3 p.m. ET when the probability of showers is 22%. It remains in the 20s the rest of the afternoon.
Sometime between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. the sky goes from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy. At post time of 7:03 p.m., the temperature is predicted to be 79 degrees with a 22% chance of rain and a southwest wind of about 7 m.p.h.
But, it’s Kentucky in May and it’s the weather, so it’s really anyone’s guess.
Where’s My Ring falters in the Kentucky Oaks
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — While all the attention is on the $5 million Kentucky Derby there are plenty of big races over the week. Next to the Derby in stature is the Kentucky Oaks, for 3-year-old fillies. It’s essentially the female version of the Derby.
The race was won by favorite Thorpedo Anna. She took the lead on the first turn, held on down the backstretch and pilled away down the stretch to win by 4 ¾ lengths over a track made sloppy by nearly day-long rain. The filly is trained by Kenny McPeek and was ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr.
There was a Southern California horse in the 14-horse race. Things didn’t go so well for Where’s My Ring, who finished 10th.
“she didn’t break and I know for sure she didn’t like the track,” said trainer Val Brinkerhoff.
You could see the filly had trouble grabbing the dirt, almost appearing as if she was slipping on the surface.
“She broke a little slow today,” said jockey Jose Lezcano. “There were a lot of horses that had speed. I tried to go [with them] but she relaxed. I got a little run from her in the middle of the race but she just finished even.”
She was running her ninth lifetime race. She ran her first race at Del Mar and then the next six at Santa Anita. Brinkerhoff shipped her to New York to run in the Gazelle Stakes where she not only broke her maiden but won by 4 ¼ lengths in a graded stakes race.
She’ll likely return to Southern California as they decide her next race.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Dornoch (Post 1)
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Luis Saez
Owner: West Pace Racing, R.A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing & Breeding, Two Eight Racing & Pine Racing Stables
Purchase price: $325,000
Lifetime record: 6-3-2-0
Winnings: $552,275
Derby points: 75
Last race: Fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: The best thing you can say about this colt is that he is a brother to last year’s winner, Mage. But he took a giant step backward in the Blue Grass Stakes, finishing fourth after winning four races in a row, including a short-field Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. Breaking from the one isn’t ideal but not the negative it used to be until they got the new gate. He is the only horse to beat Sierra Leone when he won the Remsen Stakes by a nose.
A look at the Kentucky Derby odds and favorites
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — One of the most reliable indicators of how betting will go is what’s known as the “will pays.” It shows where bettors seem to be looking. The bet, in this case, is a $1 wager where you connect the winner of the Kentucky Derby. The payoffs are what the bet “will pay” now that you know who won the first half.
What it tells us is that Fierceness should be the easy favorite, followed by Sierra Leone. The next tier of horses is made up of Catching Freedom, Forever Young, Just a Touch and Honor Marie. It also tells you that the “wiseguy” horse, or the longshot the professional gamblers are keying on, is Honor Marie, who was 20-1 on the morning line.
Here’s a look at what a $1 Oaks/Double will pay now that it’s known that Thorpedo Anna (No. 5) won the Kentucky Oaks. Also remember that Kentucky has penny breakage meaning the result does not round off to 10-cent increments like it does in California.
1-Dornoch $233.07
2-Sierra Leone $25.99
3-Mystic Dan $118.43
4-Catching Freedom $51.47
5-Calytic $447.33
6-Just Steel $195.01
7-Honor Marie $92.47
8-Just a Touch $69.63
9-Encino (Scratched)
10-T O Password $433.24
11-Forever Young $58.29
12-Track Phantom $324.95
13-West Saratoga $668.15
14-Endlessly $307.34
15-Domestic Partner $136.63
16-Grand Mo the First $820.11
17-Fierceness $16.68
18-Stronghold $174.41
19-Resilience $163.45
20-Society Man $663.40
21-Epic Ride $629.79
Kentucky Derby storylines: 150th running clouded by who is not in race
Regardless whether you think this is Kentucky Derby 150, Kentucky Derby 150* or Kentucky Derby 149½, most of the animus around this year’s historic race will be forgotten, if only briefly, when the gates open at Churchill Downs on Saturday evening.
Somewhere around 20 of the best 3-year-old horses in the world will be hoping to win the most famous horse race on the planet and cement their place in history and lucrative fees in the breeding shed.
The reason the race doesn’t have a full octane endorsement among the public is because not all of the best 3-year-olds will be running after Churchill Downs expanded its ban of trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race six times. It’s hardly an argument anymore that Baffert is the best trainer of Derby prospects currently in the game.
Churchill Downs banned him for two years after 2021 winner Medina Spirit tested positive for a legal medication banned on race day. The belief was that the ban was two years, but Churchill Downs left an out clause that said it could be extended. Despite no violations of any kind, Baffert was inexplicably banned for a third year because Churchill Downs didn’t believe he was contrite enough.