Horse racing newsletter: Flatter’s insights on the Belmont

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we tell a sad tale from the start of last year’s Del Mar’s summer season.

Before we get to the good stuff, thought we would direct you to a story I had Friday online and in Saturday’s print edition of The Times. I’ll copy over the top of the story. And, it’s not for the squeamish.

“On the second day of Del Mar’s summer season last year, the morning quiet was shattered by the sound of two horses crashing into each other, killing both instantly. That kind of freak accident is extremely rare, but when it happens in the midst of unprecedented attention on horse fatalities in Southern California, it is a crisis.

“Del Mar decided to be proactive and within hours called a news conference.

“Joe Harper, chief executive of Del Mar, compared the track mishap to a wrong-way driver on a freeway. Dr. Rick Arthur, equine medical director for the California Horse Racing Board, promised necropsies, as is mandated by CHRB rules.

“It was then that a bad situation got worse.

“Instead of being transported to a UC Davis Animal Health and Safety Laboratory in San Bernardino, Charge A Bunch and Carson Valley were taken to a rendering plant near the El Sobrante Landfill in Corona, processed into animal by-products such as fertilizer and bone meal, and the remains sent to the landfill.”

If you want to read the full story, just click here.

How this happened is simple to explain; it was just a mistake by the vendor that hauls the deceased animals. Nothing nefarious. No conspiracies. So, the story I tried to tell, and what I thought was more interesting, is why we are just now learning about it.

So, if you are interested in that aspect, it’s definitely worth a read. The racing business has made transparency one of its top priorities of late. But here, no one seemed to want to make an announcement. So, there was none.

Until last year, I taught a masters’ level class on the business of sports media. It wasn’t for journalists but those who wanted to be sports executives. One of my main themes was crisis management and how to handle situations like this.

You can make up your own mind on how this was handled.

Ron Flatter’s weekly insights

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up some crystal ball comments on the Belmont Stakes. Ron, what insights do you have?

“It would not be a Triple Crown spring without having a Kentucky Derby favorite scratched in May.

“The unfortunate circumstances surrounding Nadal’s injury and retirement meant that his Derby fate became the same as Omaha Beach’s did at this time last year, give or take three weeks.

“But there were other indications this week that the classics are getting closer. The New York Racing Assn. told the media that they will be welcomed in a limited capacity to this summer’s Belmont Stakes. That’s right. June 20 is the first day of summer. All the more reason for NBC to show yet another race in the gloaming, the better to find millions of eyes squinting deep into prime time.

“More important for horseplayers, though, was Brisnet publishing its early past performances for the Belmont. That would be the 1⅛-mile version, the first Triple Crown race to be that short in 96 years and the first to go only one turn in a century. Twelve horses are listed, including Florida Derby winner Tiz The Law (2-1), the betting favorite in overseas Belmont futures.

“Even with Nadal out, the PPs show that Bob Baffert still holds the key to the early pace, which may go further to determine the winner than any Belmont in recent memory. The absence of a stable mate could clear the way for Charlatan to be entered after Baffert had indicated a preference to put him into the Grade 2 Woody Stephens sprint — and keep him apart from Nadal.

“Charlatan (4-1), the second choice in overseas Belmont futures, carries an ‘E 8’ designation in the PPs — the same as Nadal would have had. That is the Quirin Speed Points way of saying that they are fast pacesetters. The only other Belmont possibilities that come close, according to Brisnet, are Ny Traffic (33-1) with an ‘E 7,’ meaning a little slower early, and Shivaree (22-1) with an ‘E/P 8,’ more of a mid-race stalker.

“Still on a break from his Florida Derby win in late March, Tiz The Law is an ‘E/P 5,’ which translates to a stalker. Conversely, if Maxfield (9-2) gets the call to make the quick turnaround from last week’s victory in the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs, he shows up as an ‘S 2,’ a closer. “It all may come down to who ends up in the entry box, one that may be stuffed because of Nadal’s injury.

“’I think Nadal was keeping people away,’ said Anthony Stabile, a TV analyst and sometimes race caller for the New York Racing Assn. when he is not a host on the Horse Racing Radio Network. ‘I don’t know if Tiz The Law and Charlatan are scaring anybody away. I think the complexion of the race changes completely. Maybe the field goes from 12 or 13 to a full 16. Now you may have horses that are on top of Charlatan a little earlier in the running.’

“If that happens, Stabile believes that the race opens up for closing speed. It is not just because the early pace may burn out. It is also a concession to the nine furlongs starting from the backstretch chute that seems as far from the turn for home as the Cross Island Parkway is from Montauk.

“’You have a five-furlong run up to the only turn,’ Stabile said. ‘There’s nowhere in America where that happens. Imagine if they go 46 and change or 47 (the first half-mile). Good luck trying to take them wire to wire.’

“So, pace may truly make the unique running of this race. If Stabile’s theory holds, Tiz The Law, Maxfield and Sole Volante (16-1), an “S 0” deep closer, stand to benefit the most from a parade of pacesetters led by Charlatan.

“By the way, if the maximum 16 go to the post, it would be a record field for the Belmont, and it would fill the gate. Actually, the gates. The only time that auxiliary stalls had to be used for the race was 1983, when 15 went to the post. The extra gate was set up mostly on the turf course with two stalls next to the dirt rail. The other 13 horses broke from the main gate, putting a gap between posts 2 and 3.

“That would not quite work this year, since the start will be in the 90-foot-wide chute far from the turf course. The main and auxiliary gates are a combined 80 feet long, so that would leave little room for the horses to get in position to load.

“But since spectators will not be allowed, that may come as close to a crowd forming for next month’s race as anyone may see. For bettors, though, how that crowd disperses itself after the start is the more important question.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also hosts “The Ron Flatter Racing Pod.” On the current episode, owner George Bolton discusses the injury and sudden retirement of Kentucky Derby favorite Nadal, New York Racing Assn. analyst Anthony Stabile looks at the new season at Belmont Park and the revised Triple Crown, Paul Zilm of Circa Sports discusses Kentucky Derby futures, and VSiN’s Dave Tuley, Racing Post’s Paris correspondent Scott Burton and Japan analyst Kate Hunter handicap Saturday, Sunday and Monday races. Just click here.

Santa Anita review

Race caller Frank Mirahmadi called it perfectly when he referred to it as a match race and that’s what Friday’s feature turned out to be. It was an allowance/optional claimer for 3-year-old fillies going 5½ furlongs on the turf. Lofty and Lighthouse went to the lead and went stride for stride until deep stretch when Lighthouse went in front of favorite Lofty to win by a half-length.

It was only a four-horse race with one scratch so there was no show betting. Lighthouse paid $7.80 and $2.80. Lofty was second followed by Mean Sophia and Kustom for Karl.

“She ran big to a really nice filly last time and [trainer] Simon [Callaghan] said she was on her toes today, ‘don’t take anything away from her,’” jockey Drayden Van Dyke told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “She actually likes being inside, so I let her bounce out of there and I knew that other filly would be right with us on the outside. She was very comfortable the whole way and she won pretty impressively.”

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita’s Saturday card is nine races including a graded stakes. It starts at 12:30 p.m. There are four turf races, two allowance/optional claimers and two maiden specials. The feature is the Grade 3 $100,000 Honeymoon Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the turf.

The favorite at 2-1 is Stela Star for trainer John Sadler and jockey Flavien Prat. This filly has won two of five starts, with her first four starts in Ireland. She is coming off a second in the China Doll back in March and next back is a win in a Grade 3 in Ireland. She should benefit from the added distance.

Second at favorite is Laura’s Light at 5-2 for Peter Miller and Abel Cedillo. She has won three of five including the Grade 3 Sweet Life and the Blue Norther, both at Santa Anita. It’s a nine-horse field scheduled to go at 3:37 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 7, 6, 7, 10 (1 also eligible), 5, 9, 12, 11.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 4 Croughavouke (8-1)

Croughavouke ran a closing second in December before hitting the bench till running back in the China Doll in March. After bobbling at the start the horse again made a closing five wide move to finish seventh less than three lengths back. Saturday they finally add some extra distance and this time we get a ground saving inside post. 8-1 this looks like the best value on the card today. Jockey Umberto Rispoli gets the win Saturday for us.

Friday’s result: Fantastic Day was anything but. Claim bait using Flavien Prat was just not cool!

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate weekend preview

Here’s our weekly look at the best racing going on at Golden Gate Fields. We’re delighted to have race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman as our host for previews and other musings. So, take it away, Matt.

“A full field of filly and mare sprinters go five furlongs on the turf in this Saturday’s feature, the $75,000 Camilla Urso Stakes. Ten is the maximum number of starters that are allowed to race five furlongs in any given turf sprint. Fourteen were entered so four are on the outside looking in: Mucho Amor, Mother of Dragons, Dearborn and Bezzy. However, Mother of Dragons and Bezzy are both entered in a sprint on Sunday, meaning they will scratch from the also eligible list.

“The morning-line favorite is 4-1 Storming Lady, a Southern California shipper from the Alfredo Marquez barn. She was last seen winning a second-level allowance at Santa Anita while sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the grass course. The other Southern California entrant, Fantasy Heat, makes her first start of the year for trainer Mark Glatt. In 2019, she won a pair of allowance races before finishing off-the-board in the $100,000 Unzip Me Stakes at Santa Anita in September.

“The majority of the field is composed of locals. Ima Happy Cat ran second in this race last year behind graded stakes winner S Y Sky. Princess Vivian, 9-2 on the morning line, is the local with arguably the best recent form. Tomlin, a Grade 2-placed mare, makes her career debut on turf and draws the rail. The Kentucky-bred daughter of Distorted Humor wheels back quickly after an off-the-board finish in the Grade 3 Desert Stormer on dirt last month at Santa Anita. Left Alone has won her last two races against tough local company but is 0 for 7 on grass, so she must show she can be as effective on turf as she is on synthetic. Coco Bee, Gotham Desire and Vronilla Parfait complete the list of locals. The Camilla Urso goes as the eighth race on the nine-race Saturday card, with a post set at 4:23 p.m.

“Eight races take place on Sunday with the headliner being the seventh, the $75,000 California Oaks for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the Tapeta. Among the seven fillies is Eclair, winner of the Golden Gate Debutante. Trained by Bob Baffert, the daughter of Bernardini has yet to run as a 3-year-old and makes her 2020 debut. Drayden Van Dyke is listed on the overnight to ride Éclair. Also from Southern California, trainer Simon Callaghan ships a pair for the Oaks. Paige Anne, who last ran fourth in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes at Santa Anita, has experience on the Tapeta. In January, she won an allowance race by a half-dozen lengths and defeated two rivals (Reiwa and Mollie O’ McEvoy) who also enter this race. Juan Hernandez was aboard for the runaway score that day. Coincidentally, Hernandez lands on the other Callaghan entrant, Mind Out, an $850,000 sale purchase by Tapit. After breaking her maiden and finishing second in the Surfer Girl Stakes over the summer, she returned from a layoff to finish as the runner-up behind stablemate Parkour in an allowance turf route at Santa Anita on March 22. Mind Out makes her second start off a layoff in the California Oaks.

“Leading Golden Gate trainer Jonathan Wong saddles a duo of contenders in Reiwa and Dynasty Of Her Own. Reiwa has hit the board in her last three races while Dynasty of Her Own is already a stakes winner, having won the Borderplex Stakes at Sunland Park as a 2-year-old. Most recently, Dynasty of Her Own won an allowance race over Reiwa in March.

“Price shots Mollie O’ McEvoy and Fashion Royalty round out the field. The California Oaks will go off about 3:45 p.m. as the seventh race.”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

3:37 Santa Anita (7): Grade 3 $150,000 Honeymoon Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Stela Star (2-1)

1:08 Churchill (7): Grade 3 $100,000 Winning Colors Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Mia Mischief (8-5)

3:13 Churchill (11): Grade 3 $100,000 Old Forester Mint Julep Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Julie Foxtrot (5-2)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 2 Casons Dream (5-1)

She broke slowly and inward to lose over a length at the start against a perfect-tripped victor in her last effort 20 nights ago. With a good amount of ground to make up, this runner finished well on her own and under a slight hold nearing the finish to light up the superfecta placing followed by a huge gallop out. The 7-year-old mare matches up well against this group of rivals and will be there if she can benefit from a clean break.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.