Horse racing newsletter: Santa Anita’s COVID-19 scare: Nothing to see here

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get ready for the first Triple Crown race … in another week.

It started with an email from a reader of the newsletter, saying there was a big COVID-19 outbreak at Santa Anita and racing was about to be halted. And then a text from a friend with some more details. Then more emails and texts as the net keeps widening. (By the way, many thanks to those who send me tips. Keep them coming.)

Lots of rumors, but no facts you could put a name to. Colleague Eric Sondheimer calls and offers to call one of his sources. I alert my editor, who offers up people to help.

And a couple hours later we have a story with as much impact as Y2K.

It seems as if there were six inconclusive tests involving two jockeys, someone in the racing office and at least one valet, which I learned in horse racing is pronounced val-et, not val-a. Early reports had the numbers much higher.

Aidan Butler, the big guy at Santa Anita, thought he was doing the right thing by shutting down morning training to jockeys. And it was. But it sparked a firestorm of rumors that made you think Santa Anita was the new center of the pandemic.

But all was well, as everyone tested negative on second look. I wrote a more fact-based story for the web. (Just click here.)

And racing went off as scheduled. On to the good stuff.

Ron Flatter’s weekly insights

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up some thoughts on next week’s Belmont Stakes. Ron, what insights do you have?

“Yes, it has happened. Thirteen times, in fact. In years when there was not a Triple Crown about to be clinched — or denied — the Belmont Stakes has had odds-on favorites.

“There were those three times in the ’40s — in and around four Triple Crowns and one near-miss. Then eight more times in the ’50s and ’60s, including two odds-on horses in the same year. Talk about a big takeout.

“It is all but certain to happen again for a 14th time next Saturday, when Florida Derby winner Tiz The Law faces a suspect field in the 152nd running of America’s oldest classic.

“Aside from the race being only nine furlongs and around one turn this year, history is repeating itself almost in lockstep with 1976. That was when Kentucky Derby winner Bold Forbes arrived at the Belmont Park starting gate three weeks after a third-place finish in the Preakness Stakes.

“’There’s no class in the race except Bold Forbes,’ trainer John Campo Sr. told a media gathering two days before the race. ‘The rest of them are bums.’

“He might have been written off for his lack of diplomacy — or for invoking ghosts of the Brooklyn Dodgers. But Campo was hardly a braggart. That is because he was not the trainer of Bold Forbes. Laz Barrera was.

“Campo trained Play The Red, an allowance winner that actually finished second in the Preakness — a half-length ahead of Bold Forbes — and was the clear second choice for the Belmont.

“The public agreed with his assessment — or seized on it. Bold Forbes went from a 7-5 morning-line favorite to a 9-10 underlay at post time. Play The Red was forecast to be a 4-1 second choice; he went off at 3-1.

“Tiz The Law is not quite a 4-5 favorite (–135) in Belmont futures being booked at Circa Sports in downtown Las Vegas. So, he is the latter-day Bold Forbes in this tale. At about 4-1 at Circa (+425), Sole Volante assumes the role of Play The Red. That is if he really comes back from winning an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Wednesday, only 10 days before the Belmont. Trainer Patrick Biancone said that a decision about the Belmont will be made Sunday.

“Sole Volante (pronounced “SO-lay vo-LAWN-tay”) may be overqualified for the reprise, since he has graduated from being an allowance winner. He finished first in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes four months ago. The other six horses that are considered at least possibilities for next weekend have a combined two graded-stakes victories this year.

“Remember a couple weeks ago before Nadal and Charlatan and Maxfield and Wells Bayou and Gouverneur Morris and Ny Traffic and Shivaree were all hurt or sidelined or found better things to do? That was when there was talk that the Belmont might be turning away horses.

“Now it seems as if no one can come to the party. It was like that in 1976, too. Honest Pleasure had been favored in the Derby and Preakness only to lose them both, so his connections took a pass on the Belmont. So did Elocutionist, the 10-1 shot that let Bold Forbes and Honest Pleasure burn themselves out on the lead before he poached the Preakness.

“But then as now, even with this year’s reduced $1-million purse that pays down to $20,000 for eighth place, there was money to be made even by losing the then $195,000 Belmont. The New York Racing Assn. really did not have to scrounge when it got a supporting cast for Bold Forbes. Where the latecomers might have conceded the $117,000 first-place money, fourth still paid $11,700. “’They came out of nowhere,’ NYRA racing secretary Tommy Trotter told New York Times sports writer Steve Cady back on the day of the 1976 draw. ‘We had no idea until this morning we’d have this many.’

“Even Barrera was surprised that 10 horses would show up to lose. And that they did. Well, nine of them did; one was scratched.

“Bold Forbes led at every call as he had had in the Derby and as he had until he turned into the stretch in the Preakness. Ángel Cordero Jr. guided him to an easy lead, and he skillfully held on for a narrow victory over McKenzie Bridge and Great Contractor, two of those gatecrashers that were nowhere to be found in Louisville or Baltimore.

“The same thing might happen next week. There are plenty of Triple Crown-nominated horses that just need an entry filled out for them. And for anyone that is not nominated, a $15,000 payment buys a spot in the gate, effectively making it a 1-3 proposition for a gambling owner to finish eighth.

“So, do not be surprised to see some extra Belmont entries next week come from ‘out of nowhere,’ with ‘nowhere’ being a New York stable or two. But that will not lead to a fade on Tiz The Law.

“After Maxfield’s condylar fracture was announced, Tiz The Law was cut to 4-5 (–125) in the Circa Sports futures for the Belmont. He shortened to 2-3 (–150) before coming back to –135. It has become such a one-horse proposition that Circa even wrote one. Bettors can get slightly better than even money (+105) if they bet that Tiz The Law will lose next weekend.

“Campo died nearly 15 years ago, so the family business is now in the hands of his son, trainer John Campo Jr., and his grandson, longtime track executive turned jockey agent P.J. Campo. The judgment of the ‘bums’ has been left to latter-day bettors who are already putting their money where their mouths might be saying that Tiz The Law is the next Bold Forbes. At least next Saturday.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM Channel 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. On the current episode, OptixEQ’s Emily Gullikson applies analytics to the ever-changing field for the Belmont Stakes, Racing Post’s Lee Mottershead previews next week’s races at Royal Ascot, VSiN’s Vinny Magliulo handicaps weekend races, and there is a commentary on the skimpy menu of racetracks available to Nevada horseplayers. Just click here.

Santa Anita review

Friday’s feature was a $53,000 allowance for fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. The winner, going gate to wire, was Mischiffie for trainer Phi D’Amato and jockey Ruben Fuentes. The winning margin was half-a-length.

Mischiffie paid $35.80, $9.20 and $3.80. Querelle was second and Gypsy Blu finished third.

Santa Anita preview

Saturday’s card is nine races starting at 1 p.m. There are three turf races and two stakes. The bigger stakes is the $100,000 Thor’s Echo Handicap for Cal-breds going six furlongs. There are only five starters.

The favorite, at 6-5, is Desert Law for trainer Carla Gaines and jockey Flavien Prat. Desert Law is coming off a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar on July 27 of last year. So, he’s been off for a while. He’s won five of 16 lifetime and has won two of his last four. He won this race last year by 6 ¼ lengths. There are a pair of second favorites at 3-1 in Tiger Dad for Gaines and Victor Espinoza and Principe Carlo for Ryan Hanson and Agapito Delgadillo. Post is around 3:34 p.m.

The other stakes is the $75,000 Angels Flight Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going 6 ½ furlongs. It is also a five-horse field. The favorite is Been Studying Her at 9-5 for Art Sherman and Prat. She has won three of seven and coming off a third in the Evening Jewel. At 5-2 is Gingham for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. She has won two of eight and is coming off a third in an ungraded stakes at Oaklawn.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 5, 6, 6, 7, 5, 6, 5, 8.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE THREE: No. 3 Rational (6-1)

Sometimes I will look for value when I feel the top choices are not worth the morning-line odds they are being given. Rational is a debut horse in a race where the top two choices, including a 4-5 favorite, are sent out by the same trainer. No thanks! Instead Rational, at 6-1 as a debut runner for trainer Hector Palma who is heating up, is what I want to bet. Hector is 15% in debut races and generates a flat bet profit. Dam has five winners from six starters. Tough card for value players today so this is my spot.

Friday’s result: Suezaaana was bet down to 5-1. She tracked perfectly but was no match for the winner and ran second.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate weekend preview

Here’s our weekly look at the best racing going on at Golden Gate Fields. We’re delighted to have race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman as our host for previews and other musings. So, take it away, Matt.

“We’re ending our winter/spring meet at Golden Gate Fields with 11 races a day on Saturday and Sunday. First post is 12:15 p.m. There are plenty of good field sizes, competitive sequences, mandatory payouts and even a guaranteed late Pick 4 pool on Sunday. The marquee race of the meet, the $250,000 Grade 3 San Francisco Mile, has eight runners.

“There are 99 horses entered to run in 11 races on Saturday. The feature is the $75,000 Alcatraz Stakes for 3-year-olds. A local who could very well go off as the favorite, Indian Peak, picks up the services of jockey David C. Lopez for the first time. The Dr. and Mrs. William T. Gray home-bred has run once against stakes company, with a third-place finish behind Azul Coast in the El Camino Real Derby. Most recently, he finished a better than looked second on the turf at Santa Anita behind the well-regarded California-bred Margot’s Boy in an allowance.

“Other notables include the Richard Mandella-trained Kanderel, Grade 3-placed router Zimba Warrior for trainer Keith Desormeaux, multiple Golden Gate Fields stakes winner Bettor Trip Nick for trainer Bill Delia.

“Sunday is closing day of the meet, which means mandatory payouts including the 20 Cent Golden Pick Six Jackpot, Rolling Super High Five and both Pick 5s. There are 105 horses on the Sunday card.

“The late Pick 4 (races 8-11), will have a guaranteed pool of $250,000. Each race is on the grass, making it an ‘all-turf’ sequence, and the first leg goes as the $250,000 Grade 3 San Francisco Mile.

“The top three finishers in last month’s Grade 3 All American Stakes, Restrainedvengence, Kiwi’s Dream and Camino Del Paraiso, all enter back into the San Francisco Mile. Although the All American was run on Tapeta, all three contenders have previously raced on turf.

“One of the likely favorites, Neptune’s Storm, races in the ‘Mile for Southern California trainer Richard Baltas. The son of Stormy Atlantic makes his second start off a five-month vacation after a five-length loss in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita on May 25. Last year, Neptune’s Storm won the Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes at Belmont Park and also hit the board in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby and Grade 1 Hollywood Derby.

“Another Southern California entrant, Majestic Eagle, is also a graded stake winner. He won the Grade 3 All American Stakes at Santa Anita in 2019 but has lost five straight races, including a three-length loss in the Thunder Road Stakes to Grade 1 winner River Boyne and Camino Del Paraiso in February.

“Southern California jockey Umberto Rispoli flies up to ride for trainer Neil Drysdale, who also campaigns Simply Breathless. A mare facing boys this Sunday, Simply Breathless won the Golden Poppy Stakes in 2019 over this turf course. In her last two starts, she finished off-the-board against Grade 1 company in Southern California.

“From the whole team at Golden Gate Fields, thank you to all of the horseplayers, fans, horsemen, front side and backstretch personnel and the horses for your participation and support for the duration of our meet. See you later on this summer!”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:06 Woodbine (3): $126,800 maiden special weight, fillies 2-years-old, 4 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Tequila Queen (5-2)

11:39 Woodbine (4): $123,200 maiden special weight, 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Bold Victory (5-2)

12:16 Woodbine (5): $108,700 allowance/optional claimer, fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Sister Peacock (4-5)

1:21 Woodbine (7): $100,000 Woodstock Stakes, 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Untitled (5-2)

1:53 Woodbine (8): $100,000 Star Shoot Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: New York Groove (5-2)

2:36 Belmont (9): Grade 1 $300,000 Ogden Phipps Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Ollie’s Candy (8-5)

2:54 Woodbine (10): $101,200 allowance, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs on the turf. Favorite: Monastery Lane (3-1)

3:22 Churchill (11): Grade 3 $100,000 Louisville Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Arklow (8-5)

3:34 Santa Anita (6): $100,000 Thor’s Echo Handicap, Cal-breds 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Desert Law (6-5)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 6 Kool Interest (9-2)

She posted a better-than-looked fifth place 22 nights ago in her racing debut following a C+ morning gate work drill. The filly broke inward in her first start and then was bumped out to lose over a length of ground. She then got crossed by quicker rivals to lose even more of her momentum before finishing well under a hold late. With everything factored in (trouble plus track variant), the grey earned a solid figure for this level of competition and she should be a contender for all the board placings at a medium price.

Now, the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.