Horse racing newsletter: Jon White’s final Kentucky Derby rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get a horse-by-horse breakdown on the Kentucky Derby.

You need nothing from me, let’s get right to the good stuff.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Jon White is back with his Triple Crown rankings. Jon is one of the foremost historians on horse racing as well as being the morning-line maker at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He even has done stints as a steward. He does it all. So, let’s get right to it with his final Kentucky Derby rankings this year—and it’s not September. It’s brought to you courtesy of Xpressbet.com. Take it away, Jon.

“When this newsletter’s rankings for the $3 million Kentucky Derby began back on Jan. 8, Essential Quality was No. 1. All these weeks later, it’s none other than Essential Quality who occupies the top spot in the final rankings for Saturday’s 147th running of the 1 1/4-mile classic.

“This is how I rank the Kentucky Derby entrants, courtesy of Xpressbet:

“1. ESSENTIAL QUALITY. Post position 14. Morning-line favorite at odds of 2-1. Trainer Brad Cox. Jockey Luis Saez.

“Essential Quality is undefeated in five career starts. A huge asset is he’s not pace dependent. He’s been victorious whether the pace was fast, moderate or slow. Though Essential Quality won the Blue Grass by only a neck, the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt did travel 29 feet farther than runner-up Highly Motivated, according to Trakus. Can Essential Quality follow a Blue Grass victory with a win in the Run for the Roses, something that has not been done since Strike the Gold did it 30 years ago? The belief here is that he can.

“2. ROCK YOUR WORLD. Post position 15. Morning-line odds 5-1. Trainer John Sadler. Jockey Joel Rosario.

“Rock Your World is three for three and goes into the Kentucky Derby off a Santa Anita Derby victory in his first start on dirt. Justify likewise was three for three going into the Kentucky Derby after winning the Santa Anita Derby. Justify then swept the Triple Crown. Can Rock Your World win Saturday when going farther than 1 1/8 miles for the first time? His sire, Candy Ride, won Del Mar’s 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic on dirt in 2003 while setting a track record that still stands. Rock Your World looked terrific in a recent five-furlong workout at Santa Anita. Rock Your World, Soup and Sandwich are the three entrants seeking to join Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018 as the only Kentucky Derby winners to have not started at 2.

“3. KNOWN AGENDA. Post position 1. Morning-line odds 6-1. Trainer Todd Pletcher. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

“Known Agenda won just one of his first four races, but he’s two for two since having blinkers added to his equipment. With four 1 1/8-mile races under his belt, the Florida Derby winner certainly has a solid foundation. Yes, he drew the dreaded inside post. But it helps Known Agenda that he has an outstanding jockey. Known Agenda is a Kentucky-bred son of Curlin, who finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby before winning the Preakness Stakes and two Horse of the Year titles. Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice (Super Saver in 2010, Always Dreaming in 2017). Pletcher also is represented in this year’s Kentucky Derby by Dynamic One, Sainthood and Bourbonic.

“4. HOT ROD CHARLIE. Post position 9. Morning-line odds 8-1. Trainer Doug O’Neill. Jockey Flavien Prat.

“Can Hot Rod Charlie turn the tables on Essential Quality? Essential Quality won the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by three-quarters of a length at odds of 7-2, while Hot Rod Charlie ran second at a humongous 94-1. Hot Rod Charlie is coming off a win in the Louisiana Derby. His sire, Oxbow, won the 2013 Preakness Stakes after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby. Hot Rod Charlie is a grandson of Indian Charlie, who finished third as the favorite in the 1998 Kentucky Derby. O’Neill is a two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer (I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016). Prat won the controversial 2019 Kentucky Derby when he rode 65-1 longshot Country House, who finished second and was moved up to first via the disqualification of Maximum Security.

“5. MEDINA SPIRIT. Post position 8. Morning-line odds 15-1. Trainer Bob Baffert. Jockey John Velazquez.

“Only two horses have ever defeated Medina Spirit (Life Is Good twice and Rock Your World once). The Kentucky-bred Protonico colt is capable of proving a tough customer Saturday, especially considering who trains him and rides him. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times (Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002, American Pharoah in 2015, Justify in 2018 and Authentic in 2020). Ben Jones is the only other trainer with six Kentucky Derby wins to his credit. Velazquez is a three-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey (Animal Kingdom in 2011, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Authentic in 2020).

“6. MANDALOUN. Post position 7. Morning-line odds 15-1. Trainer Brad Cox. Jockey Florent Geroux.

“Mandaloun moves up two notches in the rankings this week. That’s mainly because he seems to have trained splendidly since finishing sixth as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby after winning the Risen Star Stakes. Mandaloun ‘had no physical excuse’ for his Louisiana Derby clunker, according to Cox. ‘We’re hoping he just had an off day and bounces back,’ Cox said in a recent interview. Mandaloun is one of three Into Mischief colts in this race, along with Highly Motivated and Soup and Sandwich. Into Mischief is the sire of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. Mandaloun is a grandson of 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker.

“7. HIGHLY MOTIVATED. Post position 17. Morning-line odds 10-1. Trainer Chad Brown. Jockey Javier Castellano.

“Highly Motivated, who as mentioned above is by Into Mischief, finished a close second to give big favorite Essential Quality a real scare in the Blue Grass Stakes. Is the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby farther than Highly Motivated would prefer to go? Perhaps. But keep in mind many doubted a son of Bold Ruler would ever have sufficient stamina to win the Kentucky Derby until Secretariat came along and did it in 1973. Similarly, many were skeptical that a son of Into Mischief would ever possess enough late oomph to win the Kentucky Derby until Authentic came along and did it last year. Highly Motivated drew post 17. No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post 17.

“8. MIDNIGHT BOURBON. Post position 10. Morning-line odds 20. Trainer Steve Asmussen. Jockey Mike Smith.

“Midnight Bourbon has not finished worse than third in seven lifetime starts. His biggest victory so far came in the Lecomte Stakes in January. Most recently, the Kentucky-bred colt ran second in the Louisiana Derby. How will Midnight Bourbon do Saturday when racing 1 1/4 miles, farther than ever before? His sire, Tiznow, won the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2000 and 2001. Smith is a two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey (Giacomo in 2005 and Justify in 2018).

“9. SUPER STOCK. Post position 18. Morning-line odds 30-1. Trainer Steve Asmussen. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.

“’Super Stock capitalized on what Santana accurately described as ‘a beautiful trip’ to win the Arkansas Derby going away in a 12-1 upset. Super Stock ‘keeps getting better and better,’ Asmussen said after the Arkansas Derby. Super Stock’s sire, Dialed In, ran eighth in the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Super Stock, bred in Kentucky, is a grandson of Closing Argument, who finished second at odds of 71-1 in the 2005 Kentucky Derby.

“10. O BESOS. Post position 6. Morning-line odds 20-1. Trainer Greg Foley. Jockey Marcelino Pedroza.

“O Besos came charging late to finish third in the Louisiana Derby. His sire is Orb, who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby when he was second with a furlong to go. Being first or second a furlong from the finish is historically significant. That’s because 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong from the finish. The feeling here is O Besos will not be able to be one-two with a furlong left to run, which would greatly reduce his chances to win Saturday. But it will not be surprising to see O Besos come on late to finish second, third or fourth.

“11. KEEPMEINMIND. Post position 4. Morning-line odds 50-1. Trainer Robertino Diodoro. Jockey David Cohen.

“In his final 2020 start, Keepmeinmind rallied to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. The Kentucky-bred Laoban colt was No. 5 on Jan. 8 in this newsletter’s first rankings for the 2021 Kentucky Derby. But he then finished fifth and sixth in his two starts so far this year. Keepmeinmind had a four-furlong workout in :46.20 last Friday at Churchill, best of 108 works at the distance. In light of that excellent drill, you might want to keep him in mind as someone at 50-1 on the morning line who just might get into in the exacta, trifecta or superfecta. Keepmeinmind is a grandson of 1998 Belmont Stakes winner Viictory Gallop.

“12. DYNAMIC ONE. Post position 11. Morning-line odds 20-1. Trainer Todd Pletcher. Jockey Jose Ortiz.

“Dynamic One probably was best when he narrowly lost the Wood Memorial at odds of 15-1. He finished second to Bourbonic, who pulled off a 72-1 upset. Dynamic One seems to have trained well up to the Kentucky Derby. His sire, Union Rags, won the 2012 Belmont Stakes.

“13. KING FURY. Post position 16. Morning-line odds 20-1. Trainer Kenny McPeek. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.

“King Fury splashed home to win the Lexington Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths on a sloppy track at odds of 18-1 in his first 2021 start. Off that comeback performance, will he have a big say in the Kentucky Derby? Maybe. But he must improve on his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile effort when he finished seventh at odds of 59-1 and was outrun by Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie and Keepmeinmind. King Fury’s sire, Curlin, finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, then won the Preakness Stakes and two Horse of the Year titles.

“14. HELIUM. Post position 12. Morning-line odds 50-1. Trainer Mark Casse. Jockey Julien Leparoux.

“How good is Helium? Who knows? Helium is going into the Kentucky Derby undefeated, like Essential Quality and Rock Your World. Helium is three for three. In his two 2020 starts, the Kentucky-bred Ironicus colt won a maiden race and the Display Stakes on Woodbine’s synthetic surface. Helium took the Tampa Bay Derby in his only 2021 race to date while making his first start on dirt. Helium is a grandson of Thunder Gulch, who won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes in 1995.

“15. SOUP AND SANDWICH. Post position 19. Morning-line odds 30-1. Mark Casse. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

“Soup and Sandwich appears to be very talented, but he’s also light in experience inasmuch as he’s made only three career starts to date. The Florida-bred Into Mischief colt ran second in the Florida Derby, which was his stakes debut. Could Soup and Sandwich possibly be in the thick of it all the way to the end Saturday? Yes, it’s possible. On the other hand, it will not be surprising if he finishes way back.

“16. SAINTHOOD. Post position 5. Morning-line odds 50-1. Trainer Todd Pletcher. Jockey Corey Lanerie.

“Sainthood is another who could possibly sneak into the Kentucky Derby exacta, trifecta or superfecta if the Kentucky-bred Mshawish colt experiences better racing luck than in his most recent start. Sainthood finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on synthetic footing, but he had a nightmarish trip. Corey Lanerie rides this time. Lanerie has won numerous riding titles at Churchill Downs. Sainthood is a grandson of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid.

“17. BOURBONIC. Post position 20. Morning-line odds 30-1. Trainer Todd Pletcher. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche.

“Last early, Bourbonic got up to win the Wood Memorial by a head. The Kentucky-bred colt returned $146.50 for each $2 win wager. It was the highest win mutuel in the 96-year history of the Wood, breaking the record of $129.50 Manassa Mauler paid in 1959. Can Bourbonic win again Saturday? It appears unlikely, though he is three for four since having blinkers added. Bourbonic’s sire, Bernardini, won the 2006 Preakness Stakes. Bourbonic is a grandson of Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 2005.

“18. BROOKLYN STRONG. Post position 3. Morning-line odds 50-1. Trainer Danny Velazquez. Jockey Umberto Rispoli.

“In his lone 2021 start, Brooklyn Strong ran fifth in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial, a race in which the final time was an extremely slow 1:54.49. The New York-bred Wicked Strong gelding did win the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes in his final start at 2, but this appears to be a mighty tall task for him.

“19. LIKE THE KING. Post position 2. Morning-line odds 50-1. Trainer Wesley Ward. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke.

“Like the King won the Jeff Ruby Steaks at odds of 7-1 on a synthetic surface. But the truth is the Kentucky-bred colt might not have won that race if not for runner-up Sainthood’s horrible trip. Like the King’s sire, Palace Malice, won the 2013 Belmont Stakes.

“20. HIDDEN STASH. Post position 13. Morning-line odds 50-1. Trainer Vicki Oliver. Jockey Rafael Bejarano.

“Hidden Stash is winless in three starts this year. He ran fourth at odds of 18-1 in the Blue Grass, well behind both Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. If Hidden Stash wins Saturday, it will be a huge upset, though probably not nearly as much as when Venezuelan shipper Canonero II shocked the racing world 50 years ago with his improbable Kentucky Derby triumph.

Mitchell to stay on CHRB

In a reversal from earlier this month, Wendy Mitchell was confirmed to a second term as a member of the California Horse Racing Board. On April 5, in a move that caught many by surprise, Mitchell was turned down for re-appointment to the CHRB, the first time a governor’s appointment had been voted down in at least 20 years. She lost that vote, 21-16, despite being unanimously confirmed to fulfill a term on the CHRB in September. Thursday’s vote was 23-7 in favor of re-appointment with 10 abstentions. You need 21 votes to be approved. All the votes against Mitchell, a Democrat, were from Republicans. Want to read more, just click here.

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita has eight races starting at 1 p.m. on Friday, but the gates open at 7 a.m. for those that want to bet the simulcast card from Churchill Downs (and other places as well). There are four races on the turf, three races just for Cal breds and nothing that really says, “Gee, I can’t wait to see this card.” There are three races worth $61,000, two are maiden specials for Cal-breds 3 and up and one for 2-year-old Cal-bred fillies going 4 ½ furlongs. We believe this to be the first 2-year-old race of the year at Santa Anita. Anyway, we can’t find a feature here, so, as they say, move along.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 6, 8, 6, 6, 7, 5, 8.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 2 Cover Vision (8-1)

Cover Vision has been a value play for me a few in the past and has done very well those times. Alex Centeno and his weight break hops back on today at what seems an ideal distance of a mile. The horse drops in class Friday but still races protected and comes in with a sharp workout Sunday. We are getting an 8-1 value, a very nice price with the short fields we have today.

Sunday’s result: Flatterwithjewls scratched. Secret Maneuver fell asleep in the gate, raced midpack and then faded badly. Night time racing may be in the cards.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at thoroughbred graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Friday. All times PDT.

7:30 Churchill Downs (1): $118,000 allowance, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Favorite Sin (5-2)

8:00 Churchill Downs (2): $115,000 maiden special weight, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Seaside Retreat (7-2)

8:30 Churchill Downs (3): $118,000 allowance/optional claiming, fillies 3-years-old, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Zainalarab (3-1)

9:05 Churchill Downs (4): $118,000 allowance/optional claiming, fillies 3-year-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: American West (3-1)

9:43 Churchill Downs (5): $124,000 allowance/optional claiming, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Ramsey Solution (7-2)

10:26 Churchill Downs (6) Grade 2 $400,000 Alysheba Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Maxfield (4-5)

10:36 Belmont (3): $100,000 Flat Out Stakes, 4 and up, 1 3/8 miles. Favorite: Rocketry (2-1)

11:09 Churchill Downs (7): Grade 2 $300,000 Edgewood Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Aunt Pearl (4-5)

12:03 Churchill Downs (8): Grade 1 $500,000 La Troienne Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Shedaresthedevil (8-5)

1:04 Churchill Downs (9): Grade 2 $300,000 Eight Belles Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Dayoutoftheoffice (3-1)

1:55 Churchill Downs (10): Grade 2 $250,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint, 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Fast Boat (7-2)

2:05 Belmont (9): $100,000 License Fee Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Sweet Melania (7-2)

2:25 Oaklawn (8): $105,000 allowance/optional claiming, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: D’Rapper (3-1)

2:51 Churchill Downs (11): Grade 1 $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks, fillies, 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Malathaat (5-2)

3:02 Oaklawn (9): $108,000 allowance/optional claiming, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Empire of Gold (2-1)

3:25 Churchill Downs (12): $121,000 allowance/optional claiming, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: More Than Unusual (7-2)

3:40 Oaklawn (10): $200,000 Arkansas Breeders’ Championship, Ark-bred 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Tempt Fate (5-2)

4:00 Churchill Downs (13): $115,000 maiden special weight, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Callen’s Charisma (4-1)

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only game in town at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“The main grandstand building and the Vessels Club at Los Alamitos Race Course will open at 7 a.m. on both Friday and Saturday for simulcasting on Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day. On Derby Day the clubhouse will also open at 7 a.m. with Burgart’s following at 9 a.m. All areas at the track are limiting capacity per local guidelines. As for the Derby, Zedan Racing Stables’ Medina Spirit has local ties, as his first ever start came during the afternoon at Los Alamitos, winning for trainer Bob Baffert on Dec. 11.

“The live racing action on Friday will be headed by Comaneci running in the featured $13,200 allowance. Unraced as a 2-year-old, Comaneci was a maiden winner earlier this year and then returned with a solid trial effort to the $428,000 Los Alamitos Oaks. In the trials, Comaneci took on a field headed by Oklahoma Futurity winner Aint She Tempting. She recovered from a poor start to finish third and her time was good enough to qualify to the Oaks, running sixth to the superb Apollitical Patty on March 27. Jesus Rios Ayala will ride Comaneci for the first time starting from the one.

“The eight-race card will also feature 38 juveniles in six maiden events. A lot of these 2-year-olds are prepping for the trials to the Ed Burke Million Futurity to be held on May 30.

“On Saturday night, jockey Ramon Sanchez will look to become only the second quarter-horse rider to win 150 stakes races at Los Alamitos when he pilots recent stakes winner Mental Error in the Grade 3, $35,000 Kaweah Bar Handicap.

“Ten sprinters will go in the 350-yard feature, which is really the main event of what has been three nights of mostly quarter horses. Of the last 25 races at Los Alamitos, 23 have been straightaway events. It counts the nine trials to the Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity last Sunday night, plus seven dashes on Saturday and now this full night of racing in which the first race will be held at 1,000 yards followed by seven races at distances ranging from 220 yards to the Kaweah Bar distance of 350 yards.

“Sanchez is one stakes win away from joining Eddie Garcia as the only riders at Los Alamitos with 150 stakes wins. Once Sanchez reaches that mark, he’ll be only three away from matching Garcia’s record of 153 wins. Sanchez has a good chance to reach the 150 milestone with Mental Error, a gray horse by Favorite Cartel trained by Paul Jones. Mental Error won the First Day Of Spring Stakes by daylight on March 20, a race that gave Sanchez his 149th stakes victory. Mental Error will start from post three in the Kaweah Bar.

“Owner Martha Wells has three solid contenders in the Kaweah Bar led by Old School Icon, who was third in the First Day Of Spring to go along with stakes placed finishes in the Southern California Derby and El Primero Del Año Derby last year. Red Hawk Cartel and Chicks Fayvorite complete the triumvirate for Wells. The field also has Circle City, winner of the Golden State Derby last year, plus red-hot horses Up Is Up and Redneck Ryan. The multiple stakes winning veteran Black Fryday, Cartel Love, and Spirit Foose will also race.

“Looking back at last Sunday’s trials to the Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity, the fastest qualifier was a big surprise as Val Frida set the pace after winning the sixth trial in 15.53 seconds. For owner Jose Luis Valdez, who also bred the filly by Stel Corona, the win was the biggest in his quarter-horse career. It was also his 14^th quarter-horse win from 183 starters.

“The $297,900 Kindergarten Futurity final will be Sunday, May 16.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 3 Famous Fantsy Pants (4-1)

He finished a solid third when making his career debut after prepping well with a workout that I gave a B grade. In his first start, this colt broke well but kinda inward at the gate opening but was near the lead from the get-go. He continued on well to finish a solid third and then followed it with a huge gallop out past the wire. With a quality number in his holster along with an expected step of improvement and the added yardage this evening, we’ll push the chances of this long strider steadily at a nice price.

And now the star of the show, Friday’s entries.