Dodgers Dugout: Survey shows fans are solidly behind Dave Roberts

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell, and I can’t believe some people are already giving up on the Dodgers.

In the previous newsletter, there were four polls designed to get a sense of how a majority of readers (there are enough readers of this newsletter to fill Dodger Stadium with people left waiting to get in) really feel about this team. The really unhappy people email frequently and are seldom supportive of the team. So, do a majority of the fans feel the same way?

Well, if you are a fan of Dave Roberts, you’ll be happy to note that most people do not think the sky is falling. Most readers remain solidly in Roberts’ corner, despite those who tell me “Every Dodger fan wants Dave Roberts to go.”

How many games will the Dodgers win this season?
After 16,673 responses

At least 100: 58%
90-99: 38.8%
81-89: 2.8%
They will finish below .500: 0.4%

The Dodgers are currently on pace to win 88 games. It would be a shock and a disappointment if they won fewer than 90.

What is the Dodgers’ biggest weakness?
After 16,132 responses

The bottom of the lineup: 31.4%
The bullpen: 24.9%
Poor clutch hitting: 16.7%
The infield defense: 9.9%
The rotation: 9.6%
Dave Roberts, 5.3%
Something else, 2.2%

We’ll discuss the two biggest weaknesses below.

Should Dave Roberts remain manager of the Dodgers?
After 15,657 responses

Yes, 79.9%
No, 20.1%

Roberts is off to the best regular-season start in managerial history. However, Roberts’ biggest weakness — bullpen management — proves costly in the postseason. The question for those who want to get rid of Roberts: Who do you replace him with? Until Bruce Bochy calls and says he wants to manage the Dodgers, there aren’t a lot of candidates out there with a better track record.

Who is the best player on the Dodgers?
After 15,390 responses

Mookie Betts, 88.2%
Freddie Freeman, 5.1%
Shohei Ohtani, 3.6%
Will Smith, 3.1%

Didn’t think it would be quite the runaway victory for Betts, but he clearly is the best player on the team, at least until Ohtani starts pitching again.

The weaknesses

It’s no big secret the Dodgers are scuffling right now. As mentioned, they are on a pace to win 88 games. They will still make the playoffs (yes, for those of you who asked “Is it still too early?” after the two losses to the Mets, it is still far too early to give up).

But, it’s never too early to look at the weaknesses. You can bet Andrew Friedman has his eye on them and is thinking of ways to shore them up. So let’s look at two big ones: relief pitching and the bottom of the lineup.

For the bullpen, we can break it down into three groups

Pitched well
Evan Phillips (one earned run given up in 8.2 innings)
Daniel Hudson (seven hits, no walks, 14 strikeouts in 10 innings)
Nick Ramirez (one hit in five innings)

Shaky
Alex Vesia (hasn’t given up a run since April 12 but has walked 10 in 11 innings)
Ryan Yarbrough (eats up innings but has given up four runs in last six innings)

Done poorly
Ryan Brasier (gave up three earned runs in 38.2 innings with Dodgers last season, has given up six in 9.2 innings this season).
Joe Kelly (seven earned runs, 11 hits in nine innings)
Michael Grove (6.43 ERA in 14 innings)

The Dodgers were counting on Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen in key roles this season. If they are on the team, the bullpen looks much different, with two of the above not being on the team, probably Grove and someone else.

But there’s another way to look at relievers. For a reliever, ERA can be misleading. If a reliever comes in with the bases loaded and two out, gives up a triple and then strikes out the final batter, his ERA is 0.00 for the outing. But did he really do a good job? No, because he allowed all three inherited runners to score. His inherited runners scored (IRS) % is 100. The league average for IRS% so far this season is 34.8%.

The Dodgers are in 26th place at 43.5%

Individual totals, from best to worst:

Evan Phillips, 0% (0 of 4 inherited runners have scored)
Dinelson Lamet, 0% (0 of 1)
Gus Varland, 0% (0 of 1)
Alex Vesia, 16.7% (1 of 6)
Ryan Yarbrough, 50% (1 of 2)
Michael Grove, 50% (1 of 2)
Ryan Brasier, 100% (7 of 7)

To allow all seven inherited runners to score is quite an accomplishment. Add that to the six runs he has been charged with this season, and he has given up 13 runs. That’s more than any other Dodgers pitcher, including the starters.

The Red Sox released Brasier last May when he had a 7.29 ERA in 21 innings. The Dodgers signed him and he had an 0.70 ERA in 38.2 innings, and was a key member of the bullpen. This season it has all fallen apart again. Can he rebound? Time will tell.

As far as the rest of the bullpen goes, the Dodgers don’t have a lot of options. Kyle Hurt was just put on the IL. They could try guys such as Varland, Ricky Vanasco and J.P. Feyereisen again. But they really need Kelly and Brasier to start pitching better, because Graterol won’t be back until mid-May at the earliest and Treinen will hopefully being a rehab assignment soon, putting him a couple of weeks away from returning.

Now let’s look at the bottom of the lineup.

Batting seventh: .163/.242/.233
Batting eighth: .159/.226/.220
Batting ninth: .179/.225/.250

The Dodgers basically have the equivalent of three pitchers at the end of their lineup. Here are the top five in batting average from the Nos. 7-9 spots, with the NL West teams included also (through Sunday).

1. Milwaukee, .298
2. New York Mets, .296
3. Atlanta, .271
4. Angels, .265
5. San Diego, .259
7. San Francisco, .255
9. Colorado, .252
15. Arizona, .240
27. Dodgers, .168
28. Minnesota, .165
29. Miami, .158
30. Oakland, .157

When you are near the bottom in this category and near the bottom in IRS%, it makes it very hard to win consistently, which is why the Dodgers are on pace to win only 88 games, a far cry in what was expected. It would be surprising if the Dodgers are in the bottom five in both of these areas when the season is over.

For another look at the Dodgers’ bullpen problems, read this story by Mike DiGiovanna.

Whoops!

For some reason, in the Carl Erskine tribute in the previous newsletter, I referred to former Dodgers manager Charlie Dressen as Tom Dressen, who was a longtime comedian. I’d like to give you a good excuse for the error, but really, it comes down to the fact that I’m not all that bright.

Impressive

If you take away the outing when Tyler Glasnow was sick, here are his numbers for the season: 32 IP, 18 hits, 9 walks, 39 strikeouts, 4-0, 1.69 ERA.

Where’s Charley?

Radio announcer Charley Steiner broke his back during the offseason and will be missing the first part of the season.

“Over the winter, I landed on the injured list with three compound fractures in my back. (I don’t recommend it.) With the start of the baseball season upon us, the Dodgers are ready to go, but I’m not,” Steiner said in a statement released by the team,

Injuries

A brief look at the IL:

10-day IL
Outfielder Jason Heyward

15-day IL
Reliever Connor Brogdon
Starter Walker Buehler
Reliever Kyle Hurt
Starter Bobby Miller
Reliever Blake Treinen

60-day IL
Starter Tony Gonsolin
Reliever Brusdar Graterol
Starter Clayton Kershaw
Reliever Dustin May
Starter Emmet Sheehan

Ten pitchers on the IL. You could assemble a really good pitching staff just with those 10 pitchers.

Scheduling note

There will be no newsletter at the end of this week as we see how the beginning of this road trip goes. We’ll be back Monday.

Up next

Tuesday: Dodgers (*James Paxton, 2-0, 2.81 ERA) at Washington (*Patrick Corbin, 0-3, 8.06 ERA), 3:45 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ

Wednesday: Dodgers (Landon Knack, 0-1, 3.60 ERA) at Washington (Jake Irvin, 1-1, 3.13 ERA), 3:45 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ

Thursday: Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 1-1, 4.50 ERA) at Washington (*Mackenzie Gore, 2-1, 3.60 ERA), 1:05 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ

*-left-handed

In case you missed it

Analysis: Was Dodgers’ homestand just a bad week, or sign of potential trouble ahead?

Why was Trevor Bauer listed as a victim in a fraud case unrelated to MLB suspension?

The Dodgers bullpen was supposed to be a strength. Why has it struggled early on?

Dodgers fan pulled switcheroo after catching a ‘hated Padre’ homer. Why did he keep the ball?

And finally

Roy Campanella appears on “What’s My Line?” Watch and listen here.