Sam Farmer’s NFL picks: Week 15

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-5 (.688); 136-70-2 (.660). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 10-5-1 (.667); season 108-94-6 (.535).

MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-5) at New York Jets (4-9)

Saturday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: NFL Network.

Line: Dolphins by 2. O/U: 371/2.

The Dolphins don’t have Ryan Tannehill, but Matt Moore has a bit of swagger to him. Miami can rush the passer, too, and just has a bit more firepower than the Jets.

Dolphins 24, Jets 20

CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-13) at BUFFALO BILLS (6-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bills by 10. O/U: 411/2.

Weather could be a factor, but either way, Buffalo is going to bounce back after a loss to Pittsburgh. Cleveland takes one step closer to becoming the second team to go 0-16.

Bills 24, Browns 17

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-11) at HOUSTON TEXANS (7-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Texans by 6. O/U: 39.

The Texans are at their best at home. They’ve got an excellent pass defense, and they’re doing a better job of controlling the clock with the run. That’s too much for Jacksonville.

Texans 27, Jaguars 20

TENNESSEE TITANS (7-6) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Chiefs by 51/2. O/U: 41.

This figures to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out game. The Chiefs are tough at home, especially at this time of year. KC will stop the run and put it on shoulders of Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Chiefs 17, Titans 13

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-7) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Vikings by 4. O/U: 451/2.

The Colts are rarely out of it when they have Andrew Luck, but the Vikings’ defense can be a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. And can the Colts’ defense hold up?

Vikings 28, Colts 21

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-5) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-7-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Steelers by 3. O/U: 44.

This is one of the NFL’s better rivalry games, and it’s nasty. Ben Roethlisberger always seems to win in his home state of Ohio. The Bengals show up to games, but not consistently.

Steelers 27, Bengals 21

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-8) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Ravens by 51/2. O/U: 40.

Philadelphia is banged up, but the Eagles made a strong showing against Washington. Baltimore’s defense is a lot better than Washington’s, though, and the Ravens need this.

Ravens 23, Eagles 17

GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-6) at CHICAGO BEARS (3-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Packers by 51/2. O/U: 39.

The Packers have gotten on track offensively, as they proved against Seattle. Chicago has some of the pieces to succeed, and Matt Barkley is making some throws.

Packers 27, Bears 17

DETROIT LIONS (9-4) at NEW YORK GIANTS (9-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Giants by 4. O/U: 401/2.

The Giants have a great defense, but Detroit’s underrated unit isn’t bad, either. Matthew Stafford’s throwing hand could be an issue, especially when the weather turns cold for the Lions’ QB.

Giants 21, Lions 17

NEW ORLEANS (5-8) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (5-7-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Cardinals by 21/2. O/U: 50.

Drew Brees has had three picks and no touchdowns in back-to-back games. Time for him to bust out against a banged-up Cardinals team that’s missing a bunch of key guys.

Saints 28, Cardinals 21

SAN FRANCISCO (1-12) at ATLANTA FALCONS (8-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Falcons by 14. O/U: 511/2.

The 49ers are trying to hang in there. They played the Jets tough last Sunday but did blow a 14-point lead and Atlanta has too much offensive firepower, especially at home.

Falcons 31, 49ers 20

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-2) at DENVER BRONCOS (8-5)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 431/2.

Broncos are on the verge of missing the playoffs, so they’re desperate. This isn’t a great matchup for the Patriots, who will have problems with Denver’s defense. Watch for Denver to hold on.

Broncos 21, Patriots 20

OAKLAND RAIDERS (10-3) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (5-8)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Raiders by 3. O/U: 491/2.

This is going to be like a home game for the Raiders. The Chargers are playing hard, and Philip Rivers is going to keep them in it. But Oakland is just a better team.

Raiders 27, Chargers 23

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (11-2)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Cowboys by 7. O/U: 47.

People were blitzing Dak Prescott early, and he was killing them. Now, teams are rushing four and dropping seven, and the Cowboys rookie is having problems. Could be an upset, but …

Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 21

CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-8) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (7-5-1)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Redskins by 61/2. O/U: 501/2.

Carolina has a pulse, and a point to prove against Josh Norman, so the Panthers will hang in. But at this time of year, it’s hard to bet against a home team that still has something at stake.

Redskins 27, Panthers 23