Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 11

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 7-7 (.500); season 91-55 (.623). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 7-7 (.500); season 60-62-4 (.563). Cleveland, New Orleans, the New York Giants and Pittsburgh have the week off.

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Indianapolis (4-5) at Atlanta (6-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Falcons 24, Colts 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Falcons by 6. O/U: 47.

Forty-year-old Matt Hasselbeck did a tremendous job in place of Andrew Luck earlier this season, but that was beating Tennessee and Houston. The Falcons are better and rested.

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Denver (7-2) at Chicago (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Broncos 28, Bears 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Bears by 1. O/U: 41 1/2.

Broncos’ defense is going to keep them in virtually every game, barring interception-fests. Brock Osweiler should be solid in place of Peyton Manning. John Fox will break out his bag of tricks.

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Oakland (4-5) at Detroit (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Raiders 33, Lions 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Raiders by 1. O/U: 48 1/2.

Even though the Raiders have lost two in a row, they’re loaded with young talent. The Lions are coming off a landmark victory over Green Bay, which just isn’t the team it looked to be earlier in the season.

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N.Y. Jets (5-4) at Houston (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 17, Texans 13

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Jets by 2 1/2. O/U: 41.

Still shocking that the Texans were able to knock off Cincinnati, proof that anything can happen in a given week. The Jets are a little better team, though, and Houston is perfectly capable of laying an egg.

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St. Louis (4-5) at Baltimore (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 24, Rams 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Ravens by 2 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Rams are really struggling, benching Nick Foles halfway through the season. Case Keenum isn’t the answer, but he’ll be facing a team that has lost four of five close ones. Go with Joe Flacco.

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Washington (4-5) at Carolina (9-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 24, Redskins 20

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Panthers by 7. O/U: 45 1/2.

It’s hard to know how much to read into Washington’s big win over New Orleans, considering how bad the Saints defense is. Redskins could give Carolina a scare, but the Panthers will keep it rolling.

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Dallas (2-7) at Miami (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Dolphins 27, Cowboys 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Pick ’em. O/U: 47 1/2.

Tony Romo is coming back, but don’t expect the same Cowboy who tore up teams last year. He’s ultra-vulnerable. Plus, Dallas is such a soap opera, the slightest adversity could trigger a meltdown.

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Tampa Bay (4-5) at Philadelphia (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 28, Buccaneers 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Eagles by 6. O/U: 45.

Mark Sanchez might be a better fit for the Eagles than Sam Bradford, and he knows the offense better. If he can avoid the turnovers, he can beat a Buccaneers team that has played well lately.

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Kansas City (4-5) at San Diego (2-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chargers 31, Chiefs 24

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Chiefs by 3. O/U: 45.

The Chiefs are coming off a big win, although their defense isn’t going to have many five-interception weeks. Even without Keenan Allen, and with all their struggles, the Chargers have more weapons.

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Green Bay (6-3) at Minnesota (7-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Vikings 27, Packers 23

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Vikings by 1. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Vikings don’t make a lot of mistakes. They have the corners to cover Green Bay’s receivers — not a lot of guys getting open for Aaron Rodgers — and the Packers defense is consistently vulnerable.

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San Francisco (3-6) at Seattle (4-5)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Seahawks 24, 49ers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Seattle by 13. O/U: 39.

The Seahawks aren’t going to lose two in a row at home, and certainly not to Blaine Gabbert. That said, it’s amazing Seattle is only one game ahead of San Francisco nine games into the season.

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Cincinnati (8-1) at Arizona (7-2)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Cardinals 30, Bengals 24

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Cardinals by 5. O/U: 49.

Andy Dalton is not at his best in prime-time games. The Bengals have plenty of weapons, but Arizona’s defense has really come together. Teams don’t even throw at Patrick Peterson anymore.

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Buffalo (5-4) at New England (9-0)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Patriots 27, Bills 23

TV: ESPN.

Line: Patriots by 7. O/U: 48.

At some point all these injuries are going to take a toll on the Patriots. Losing Julian Edelman stings. The Bills are rested, and showed against the Jets that they can make plays on both sides of ball.