Poll: Can Geoffrey Rush pull off an upset victory at SAG Awards?

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Nearly every pundit on the planet predicts Christian Bale (‘The Fighter’) will win the Screen Actors Guild Award for best supporting actor this Sunday. Out of 19 experts polled by Gold Derby, 16 pick Bale and only three opt for Geoffrey Rush (‘The King’s Speech’).

Two of those Rush disciples include me and Tariq Khan (Fox News). Tariq is basing his forecast on an informal polling of SAG members he’s been conducting vigorously in New York. He’s discovering enormous support for ‘The King’s Speech,’ which isn’t surprising since ‘King’ and ‘The Social Network’ were the only two DVD screeners sent to all 98,000 guild members. How many voters went to theaters to see ‘The Fighter’? Quite a few, yes, but all? In past years, movies sent via DVD to all members have done very well -- like ‘Inglourious Basterds,’ which won best ensemble last year after being sent en masse to SAG members.

Rush has won three SAG Awards to date: best film actor for ‘Shine’ (1996), best film ensemble for ‘Shakespeare in Love’ (1998), and best TV film actor for ‘The Life and Death of Peter Sellers’ (2004). Bale was nominated for best film ensemble for ‘3:10 to Yuma’ (2007), but lost to the cast of ‘No Country for Old Men.’

-- Tom O’Neil