Opinion: Alternative-Universe Bradley Effect?

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UPDATE: This post has been updated to correct an error in previously reported numbers.

When Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley lost the governor’s race back in 1982 after polling way, way ahead of his Republican rival, the ‘’Bradley Effect’’ was born -- the conclusion that voters were simply lying to pollsters about voting for Bradley when they had no intention of voting for a black gubernatorial candidate.

The Bradley Effect was complicated by the fact that Democrats had put a gun-control measure on the same ballot, and after the Election Day dust settled and Bradley had lost, some political observers thought that the gun-control initiative had unexpectedly brought out conservative voters who might otherwise have sat out the election and who, as long as they were in the voting booth, also voted against that big-city mayor who probably wanted to take away their guns anyway.

Now we come to 2008. No one was lying to pollsters, but the candidacy of Democrat Barack Obama generated a huge turnout of African-American voters in California -- about 10% of the electorate -- and as long as they were in the voting booth, 80% of them voted in favor of Proposition 8, the same-sex marriage ban. [Update: the correct figure is about 70%]

Now, 80% of 10% may not sound like much, but when those votes are added into a high number of ‘’yes’ votes from the rest of the electorate -- and a high percentage of Latinos and Asian-American voters, some of whom may also have turned out to vote for Barack Obama -- it could all have made the difference. Proposition 8 won by about a half-million votes.

That one should keep social scientists busy for years.

The photo of the Tom Bradley bust at LAX is from a Times photographer.