Opinion: Fresh Iowa, N.H. & S.C. poll results

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These are the polls that count in the primary season --- the ones that eschew a national sampling, focusing instead on voter preferences in the key early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. American Research Group has released fresh surveys from these battlegrounds and here’s the overview:

***For Republicans, the results underscore the increasingly competitive and unpredictable nature of the race for the GOP’s presidential nod.

*** For Democrats, the findings in one state will gladden the Hillary Rodham Clinton camp, while figures from the other two will sadden it. For Barack Obama, exactly the reverse is true.

Now, the specifics. ....

In Iowa --- where the caucuses kick off the nomination process --- the Republican contest is a virtual tie, with Rudy Giuliani at 22% and Mitt Romney at 21%. That’s better news for Giuliani than Romney; a month ago, the latter had a 7-percentage-point lead in ARG’s statewide poll.

John McCain, trying to recover from a prolonged political skid, at least is moving in the right direction. After plunging from 25% (and a tenuous lead) in May to 13% in June, he’s now at 17%. As for Fred Thompson, his continued dance on the campaign’s sideline appears to have cost him momentum in Iowa --- his support now stands at 13%, practically the same as the 14% he posted in June.

On the Democratic side, Clinton has lengthened the 3-percentage-point lead she held over John Edwards in a June ARG poll to 9 points, 30% to 21%. Obama, meanwhile, is merely treading water in the Hawkeye State (13% in June, 15% now). Bill Richardson, by contrast, is showing clear signs of life. He’s threatening Obama’s hold on third place, increasing his support from 5% in June to 13% now.

Turning to New Hampshire, the new ARG poll shows not only another neck-and-neck fight among the Republicans, but a dead heat among the Democrats, as well. That’s a plus for Obama.

Clinton and Obama each garnered 31% backing; a month ago, the former first lady led by 9 percentage points. Obama was the only Democrat showing significant movement in the new survey. Edwards was at 14%, up slightly from June, while Richardson, with 7%, was basically static.

In the GOP matchup, Giuliani polled 27%, Romney 26%. As in Iowa, that’s more heartening for the former New York mayor than the former Massachusetts governor; in last month’s survey, Romney had led by 8 percentage points.

The new results provide no solace for the beleaguered McCain; indeed, they chart a disastrous trend for him in the Granite State --- 30% in May, 21% in June, 10% now.

In South Carolina, the ARG poll again shows the Republican contest a tossup, but there’s a change in the lineup of the cast. Giuliani continues as one of the front-runners, with 28%, but right behind him, with 27%, is Thompson. As in New Hampshire, McCain’s path is strictly downhill (and the numbers are strikingly similar --- 32% in May, 23% in June, 10% now. Romney, meanwhile, currently has little traction in the Palmetto State, where some analysts believe his Mormon religion costs him among GOP voters. He’s at 7% in the new ARG poll; in June, he was at 8%.

For the Democrats, a change on the leadership board has occurred in South Carolina; Obama runs ahead of Clinton, 33% to 29%. That’s a dramatic shift since June, when Clinton was on top by 16 percentage points. Obama’s gain in a state where a hefty portion of his party’s primary vote will be African American came both at Clinton’s expense and that of Edwards, whose support dropped from 22% in June to 18% now.

For a detailed look at the new polls, go here.

-- Don Frederick