Setbacks Raise Fears : Taiwan--Worry Spurs Brain Drain

TAIPEI, Taiwan —  Yang Kuo-shu, a professor at National Taiwan University, has noticed that some of his friends are making plans for the future--plans that involve living somewhere other than Taiwan.

Many people, influenced by what has happened in Hong Kong, are looking into the possibility of taking up residence in some other country, even of changing their citizenship, Yang said. Hong Kong, a British colony, is to revert to Chinese rule under an agreement worked out recently by the governments in London and Peking.

The Nationalist Chinese, who established themselves here after being driven off the mainland in 1949, have flourished despite constant fear that some day the People’s Liberation Army would invade from the mainland. Now the Nationalists are confronted with a different danger--that Taiwan will simply be abandoned by many of its most valuable people.

Students Stay in U.S.

For one thing, Taiwan has more students attending classes in the United States than any other overseas country and, according to figures not disputed here, only about 15% of them can be expected to return to Taiwan. The others will stay on in the United States.

The United States is not unique in this respect. Other Nationalist Chinese are emigrating to Canada, Australia and a number of smaller countries in Central America and the South Pacific, among other places.

It is not just young people who are leaving. Businessmen and scientists are leaving, too. Officials acknowledge that the country is suffering from a so-called brain drain, and some of them complain bitterly about U.S. laws that enable Taiwan’s best and brightest to take high-paying jobs with American companies.

“Your immigration law is not fair,” Raymond S.H. Hoo, chairman of the Coordination Council for North American Affairs, told a recent visitor. “You want only the good ones. You say the bad ones can come home.”

Hedging Their Bets

In addition to those who actually leave, there are others who are hedging their bets. They obtain a passport or a residence permit from another country, then return to live and work here. This practice is so common that it is being debated whether those with a second passport or residence permit should be permitted to hold government office.

To some extent, Taiwan is a victim of its own economic success. Its per capita income, $2,755 in 1984, is among the highest in Asia. More and more people have the money to send their children abroad, to travel abroad themselves, to invest and even open factories abroad.

According to Wei Yung, chairman of the government’s research, development and evaluation commission, the economic growth rate last year was between 9% and 10%. “It was a good year for us,” he said, “with high growth and almost no inflation.”

Yet economic progress has come against a background of political setbacks. In the public relations battle between China and Taiwan, last year was probably the worst for Taiwan since 1971-72, when it lost the Chinese seat in the United Nations and President Richard M. Nixon made his historic visit to China.

In 1984, President Reagan, the strongest supporter of the Chinese Nationalists ever to occupy the White House, also paid a visit to Peking, and there are now indications of increasing military cooperation between the United States and China.

China also scored some dramatic successes at the Olympic Games last year, started a series of market-oriented economic reforms that have attracted attention in the West and signed the agreement with Britain for the return of Hong Kong to Chinese rule in 1997.

The Nationalists on Taiwan, meanwhile, were beset by two coal mine disasters and a scandal--apparently involving military intelligence officials--stemming from the slaying, in California, of dissident writer Henry Liu.

In addition, the U.S. edition of the China Times, the Nationalists’ leading newspaper, was closed after officials of the Kuomintang, the ruling party here, reportedly sought to impose restrictions on its news coverage.

‘Bad Year For Us’

“It has been a very bad year for us,” Hu Fu, a professor of political science at National Taiwan University, said the other day.

The Nationalists also face other long-range uncertainties. There is no obvious successor to President Chiang Ching-kuo, and there is considerable dependence on the United States--too much, officials admit--as a supplier of arms and as a market for exports.

Also, the Nationalists are facing a difficult transition from such labor-intensive industries as textiles and shoes to high-technology industries--computer parts, for example.

“In five years, parts of Taiwan could look like parts of South Carolina,” an American living here said.

Yet all these problems are manageable, if enough skilled people stay on the island.

According to Wei, the government adviser, about 67,000 students went to the United States in the 30 years between 1951 and 1981. Fewer than 9,000 of them have returned to work here.

“The ones who come back are the ones with connections here,” a foreign analyst said. “They have the prospect of a job with a future. The ones who stay overseas are the kids who don’t have a daddy who’s a general or is in the highest ranks of the Kuomintang.”

For those who have obtained professional training, government officials here say, the choice is an economic one: Salaries are higher in the United States and working conditions are better.

“A lot of U.S. companies give them higher pay,” Hoo, the coordination committee chairman, said. “They give them facilities for research. It’s not like leaving the mainland. They are not leaving here because of the freedom in the U.S.”

Hoo said that in order to persuade professionals to return, the Nationalists must raise salaries and improve working conditions.

Others in the government say that an intense campaign has already been undertaken to persuade scientists working abroad to come home. According to Wei, the goal is to attract 14,000 scientists back to Taiwan.

Appeal to Patriotism

“We plan to make a major effort to attract Chinese-American scientists,” Wei said. “We must admit the job is not easy, because we are in competition with the most advanced societies in the world.”

Wei acknowledged that the sales pitch will not be entirely economic but will include a political and ideological appeal as well. It will invoke the themes of Chinese patriotism and anti-communism.

“We will ask them to consider the future direction of China as a nation, to consider more than just materialism,” Wei said.

He said he will soon travel to Houston to meet with Chinese scientists working in the United States.

Others here say the government will have to go beyond the anti-communist appeal. Prof. Hu told a reporter:

“We need a high number of intellectuals to return from your country and work here. We need to persuade them that to remain in your country and work there is a big mistake. But how can we persuade them to return? It will be very hard, when most of them favor democracy. They do not want to return under martial law.”

Taiwan has been under martial law ever since the Nationalists arrived here. Two minor parties that came over from the mainland along with the Kuomintang have been permitted to operate but the law prohibits the formation of any new political parties.

Political forces opposed to the Kuomintang, and intellectuals such as Hu, the political scientist, have been pressing the government to end martial law and permit the formation of new political parties. They contend that this would demonstrate to the world that Nationalist China has become a pluralistic society with democratic political institutions.

The government position is that martial law is still necessary because of the continuing threat posed by “external enemies.”

Prof. Yang, whose field is psychology, said he believes there have been times when the government’s invocation of the Communist danger has been counterproductive. It may stiffen the resolve of some of Taiwan’s 19 million people, he said, but it may “create a climate in which many people want to escape before the last days.”

The climate of uncertainty is causing some of the wealthier people here to make sure that at least part of their money is invested abroad.

No Hong Kong Model

“Do you reinvest in Taiwan, or do you buy a house in Monterey Park?” asked an American who lives here. “More and more people here say the house in Monterey Park makes sense.”

Yang said he believes that a recent increase in the rate of economic crime is attributable in part to people who have no long-term commitment here and do not care what people abroad may think.

“Some people no longer cherish their reputation in Taiwan,” he said. “They think they will take their money and not return.”