Maverick Posing Threat to Mexico’s Politics as Usual

HERMOSILLO, Mexico —  As an opposition candidate for governor, white-haired Adalberto Rosas would appear to have as much chance of success as a snowball in the desert climate of Sonora, where summer temperatures of 110 degrees are not uncommon.

The ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, after all, has never lost a gubernatorial election in Mexico. The PRI controls Congress, including every seat in the Senate. It controls the vast majority of the city administrations throughout the country and all of the legislatures in Mexico’s 31 states.

Yet despite the party’s past record of complete domination, Rosas has managed to place in doubt the outcome of the July 7 election in this northwestern state, a rare feat in Mexican politics. An upset victory by Rosas would mean that the rules of Mexican politics may have to be rewritten.

“What is at stake in this election,” Rosas said in an interview, “is whether Mexico is ready to define itself once and for all: Is this a dictatorship or a democracy? You can’t have a one-party state and call it a democracy--not here, not in China, not anywhere.”

Besides the rare element of suspense in the race, there is something else unusual: Some of Rosas’ supporters in the National Action Party (PAN) have said they will resort to violence if they feel cheated out of victory.

And the possibility of violence appeared to grow last week when the PRI-controlled State Electoral Commission ruled that the National Action Party’s candidates in 18 municipalities were ineligible because of “inadequate documentation.”

Roman Catholic Archbishop Carlos Quintero Arce of Hermosillo issued a call for “a clean electoral process that will remove the pretext for violence.”

Rosas has a proven electoral record as a former mayor of Ciudad Obregon, Sonora’s second largest city. He not only beat the PRI for a three-year term as mayor in 1979, but he defeated the son of Alvaro Obregon, the former president and army general for whom the city was named.

Embarrassing Victory

His victory embarrassed the PRI, but there was more to come. In 1982, Rosas claimed that his party’s candidate won the race to replace him, although the government’s tally showed the PRI candidate to be the victor. So Rosas refused to hand over the official tally sheets.

He was charged with violating the state’s electoral laws, promptly tried and sentenced to two years and nine months in prison. The trial, he says, was aimed at removing him from electoral politics forever.

Rosas, however, did not go to prison. He appealed the conviction, and while the appeal was being considered, he continued to campaign on behalf of the National Action Party, setting his sights on the governorship. Last February, an appeals court overturned his conviction in a decision that Rosas called a rare display of judicial independence.

Opposition Gains

Meantime, National Action Party candidates captured City Hall in the state capital of Hermosillo. The party also won the local election in Agua Prieta, a dusty Sonora town whose name is forever connected with the “Plan of Agua Prieta,” which catapulted Gen. Obregon and other legendary figures of the Mexican revolution into national leadership in the 1920s.

One of those who signed the Plan of Agua Prieta, a manifesto calling for the ouster of President Venustiano Carranza and his government, was Plutarco Elias Calles, another famous Sonoran who went on to become president of Mexico. In 1929, he founded the party that was the forerunner of the Institutional Revolutionary Party.

All these reminders of the region’s historical importance add a weighty psychological dimension to the upcoming election. Sonora is not just another state in the Mexican federation, but rather a region that has a special significance as the origin of revolutionary political change.

“A victory by the PAN would demonstrate to the entire republic that yes, it can be done,” Rosas maintained. “Every other state in Mexico is looking at these elections with that in mind. It would be a sign that the omnipotence of the PRI is waning.”

Gains Local Following

Throughout its 46-year history, the National Action Party has rarely mounted a serious, sustained challenge to the political dominance of the PRI, but in the past few years its middle-of-the-road approach has won a significant local following in some areas, particularly among the nascent middle class.

National Action Party mayors govern Ciudad Juarez, San Luis Potosi and other cities in the north, where the party is strongest. Furthermore, the party’s business-oriented policies and anti-bureaucratic stance seem to strike a responsive chord among Mexicans who believe the present economic crisis is the result of governmental ineptitude and cronyism within the Institutional Revolutionary Party.

Although Rosas insists that he is ahead, PAN officials say that they have taken no reliable polls because of a shortage of funds.

“The fact of the matter is that no one has taken any reliable polls,” said Jose Healy, the editor of El Imparcial, an Hermosillo newspaper that tries to live up to its name.

“The PRI says its polls show that it’s ahead,” he said, “but it’s not an objective source, is it?”

A Breed Apart

Rosas, 43 and energetic, has been running for governor virtually since 1982, when he left City Hall in Ciudad Obregon. He kicked off the official campaign last year with a 750-mile, 37-day walk across the state. His early emergence as a candidate--along with his statewide popularity and a charisma that appeals to Sonorans, who consider themselves a breed apart, has contributed to the perception that he can win.

Gubernatorial elections will be held in seven states on July 7, but PAN officials, including national party chairman Pablo Emilio Madero, say their best chances are in Sonora, Nuevo Leon (Monterrey) and the central state of Guanajuato.

The National Action Party’s opportunity in Nuevo Leon rests on the traditional strength of the business community in that northern state, while the race in Guanajuato revolves around an investigation of corruption in the administration of a recent Institutional Revolutionary Party governor.

To combat the threat of the National Action Party challenge in Sonora, the PRI nominated Rodolfo Felix Valdes, 63, an engineer and lifelong government official who served as the first secretary of communications and transportation in the cabinet of President Miguel de la Madrid.

A Cool Reception

A man with a grandfatherly countenance and no previous electoral experience, Felix Valdes was greeted coolly by Sonorans because he had lived outside of Sonora, usually in Mexico City, for 40 years.

The PRI candidate’s reputation for honesty has served him well, however, and National Action Party officials have been unable to accuse him of anything except being a carpetbagger.

Felix Valdes has adroitly turned his federal government experience to his advantage, repeatedly telling political rallies that the economic well-being of the state lies in knowing how to squeeze funds out of the federal government, a task in which he claims expertise.

“This is a powerful argument, particularly in these hard times,” said Healy, the editor of El Imparcial. “People are warming up to him now. They question whether it would be wise to be the only state in the nation without a PRI governor.”

After a moment’s reflection, he added: “Maybe Rosas peaked too early. Or maybe he can still pull it out.”