Philippine Snap Vote: Will It Be Constitutional?

MANILA —  The bill authorizing special presidential elections Feb. 7 went to the floor of the Philippine National Assembly this week, with supporters and opponents agreeing that constitutionality has become the central issue.

Political Affairs Minister Leonardo Perez predicted that the bill will be approved when the debate concludes next week.

Perez and other members of the ruling New Society Movement, or KBL, arguing that calling the election is a “legislative function,” say a constitutional provision requiring President Ferdinand E. Marcos to relinquish his office before seeking reelection does not apply under the proposed formula.

Since Marcos first suggested snap elections almost three weeks ago, the possibility of a constitutional challenge has made the footing uncertain. All the declared opposition candidates have charged Marcos with trampling or skirting the constitutional provision that requires the resignation of a sitting president before an election can be held.

‘Postdated’ Resignation

Marcos has submitted a resignation, but it is effective only upon declaration of the winner in the snap poll. What the opposition calls a “postdated” resignation will allow him to campaign as president.

Marcos, as usual, has put the opposition in a tight spot. As much as his opponents deplore him as a president, they respect his command of the political and governmental apparatus he has put together in 20 years in power.

“Marcos calls the shots. He plays the game, he is the scorekeeper, the referee and the timekeeper,” Salvador Laurel, the candidate of Unido, the United Nationalist Democratic Alliance, has said. And, added Laurel, “he can switch off the lights any time he wants.”

In announcing he is ready for a quick election, the president noted that it was the opposition leaders who had been clamoring for an early vote. Some had, but Marcos’ call caught them off guard. The immediate reaction was suspicion: Was it some sort of trick?

Then there was confusion as Marcos at first hinted that he would order the election under his decree powers, then took the parliamentary route as he reversed himself and put the vice presidency on the ballot.

Marcos Has ‘an Out’

It appeared that Marcos had made a snap decision, perhaps under American pressure, and that he was improvising as the days went on. But many analysts were certain that the president “had already shuffled the deck,” as one said, and was following a predetermined course. These analysts, cynical or simply experienced, say Marcos knew that he had “an out”--the constitutional challenge.

“He can say the opposition wanted an early election, and he did all he could to give it to them, but the constitution . . . ,” said a Western diplomat, shrugging.

The president’s men in the KBL have defended the election bill as constitutional. No suits have yet been filed against it.

But a party dissident, former Foreign Minister Arturo Tolentino, said this week that he will ask the Supreme Court to declare the planned Feb. 7 ballot invalid. Opposition legislators said they will prepare a challenge as well.

Meanwhile, Laurel, the UNIDO candidate, said the elections should take place, regardless of the constitutional question.

“We can’t boycott simply because of this,” he said, insisting, as he has since the election was proposed, that the ballot is the only peaceful option for change in the Philippines.

Laurel is the most aggressive of the opposition leaders seeking a single nominee to oppose Marcos. Others say he is determined to run even if he is not the consensus candidate of the opposition parties.

Consensus on the choice of a nominee continues to elude the opposition. Even the mechanism for choosing one is disputed. And if the vote is not derailed, candidacies must be filed by Dec. 11.

Seven parties formed a coalition this week to promote the candidacy of the widow of assassinated opposition leader Benigno S. Aquino Jr. However, Corazon Aquino has not said whether she is willing to run, and the coalition does not include an important wing of the large Liberal Party.