McGUIRE: : Louisville Lacks a Ballhandler--That May Be Cardinals’ Undoing

Before I get into the nation’s top two teams playing for a national championship, I must relate the most unique thing I’ve seen in Dallas:

I saw a blimp hovering over Reunion Arena taking pictures of a building. Now that’s unique.

As far as the game goes, the prime-time game gets two teams that have been ranked in the Top 10 since December. The differences are very slight.

Louisville, however, has one major problem--no true ballhandler. That especially will be a problem against Duke, a team that has the best guard tandem in college basketball at creating turnovers. Duke’s offense will keep the game even until the defense breaks things open and Johnny Dawkins starts making his jumpers from around the circle. Duke will win a close game.

I feel a little destiny in Duke. Coach K, you know him as Mike Krzyzewski, knows he can’t come back to the Final Four next year or even two years from now. His is the kind of program that needs three or four years to retool, whereas Denny Crum at Louisville has one of those programs that’s capable of winning a national championship in any year, a true dynasty.

This senior thing with Duke was set up. They’re supposed to win.

Here’s a quick look at the individual matchups:

The personality of Denny Crum is the finest in the country. Coach K looks real serious on the court, but in real life he’s a very humorous guy. And he’s proud to be Polish. I call him the Polish Prince.

At one forward, I look for Duke to get a big game out of Mark Alarie, simply because he’s a big-game player. He’s the key to the entire game, and he must be stopped on the offensive end if Louisville hopes to win. He does so many things that go unnoticed: blocking the passing lanes, boxing out on rebounds, getting good defensive position.

Louisville’s Billy Thompson has more ability than anybody on the court, except Dawkins. I picked Thompson as the No. 1 high school player in the nation out of Camden, N.J., and in the tournament he has shown he’s finally starting to play to that potential. He’s the key to Mr. March, Crum, picking up another NCAA ring.

The volcano bubbling and starting to smoke is Duke’s other forward, David Henderson. He has had a flat offensive tournament, but he’s ready to explode. Remember that Duke has gotten to the NCAA final without Henderson coming near to the performance he had when he was named MVP of the Big Apple NIT.

He’ll be going against Herbert Crook, who looks unorthodox but delivers the mail.

In the middle, Pervis Ellison still astounds me. With his timing of a diamond cutter, he’ll end up breaking all NCAA reject records. It looks as if Duke’s Jay Bilas will get in foul trouble, but freshman Danny Ferry, another of my picks as top high school senior, will take up the slack. Bilas is a journeyman, a dance-hall player who pushes and shoves, but he’s a perfect complement to his senior running mates.

Louisville has five starters, any of whom can blow your sweatsocks off, but their true All-American is Milt Wagner, the scoring machine. He’s one of those guys who plays cool in tight situations.

Everything that can be said has been said about Dawkins, who’ll be the most talented player on the floor tonight. But his biggest asset is his offensive rebounding. He’s like Muhammad Ali: He keeps stalking you, and eventually, he’ll catch you.

At the other guard, Tommy Amaker will show that he’s more than just a complement to Dawkins. He’s capable of putting the ball up in any situation. Jeff Hall of Louisville is a legitimate zone-buster, but Duke’s tendency is not to go to the zone, unless absolutely necessary.

Crum has an adequate bench; he can go to his eighth man with no problem. But I don’t know the medical report on the freshman, Tony Kimbro, who hurt his arm. If he can’t play, that’s a debit for the Cardinals.

If it gets into a bench game, Ferry is playing with the confidence he got from his father, Bob, the GM of the Washington Bullets. Danny put in a key basket against Kansas, and more importantly, he took a key charge late in the game. Another important Blue Devil, Billy King, is a good athlete, but he has a problem with fouls, and he has had a difficult time at the free-throw line. If it gets into an excessive fouling game, the pendulum would swing back to the Cards.

I watched the final on television last year, and I really listened to my buddy, Billy Packer. He was outstanding. Must have caught him on a good day.