Congressman’s Aide Calls Survey ‘Bogus’ : Poll Results Suggest Dornan Is ‘Vulnerable’

A poll commissioned by national Democratic leaders suggests that Assemblyman Richard Robinson (D-Garden Grove) could beat Rep. Robert Dornan (R-Garden Grove) in the 38th Congressional District in November, pollster John Fairbank said Friday.

Democrats here and in Washington have pounced on the results, saying that the August poll--commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee--proves that the outspoken and conservative Dornan is vulnerable this year.

As a result, committee spokesman Mark Johnson said, the Dornan-Robinson race will continue to be one of the top targeted congressional races in the nation--one that national Democrats think they can win.

Vehement Disagreement

Dornan campaign manager Brian O’Leary Bennett vehemently disagreed that the flamboyant backer of Nicaraguan rebels and pro-life congressman was vulnerable.

“This bogus poll,” Bennett said. “It was done by a Democratic firm, and you can make polls sing any song that you want them to sing.” He said that other polls on the race showed Dornan winning easily, but he declined to give specifics of the other surveys.

According to pollster Fairbank of the San Francisco firm of Fairbank Bregman & Maullin, a key question asked of about 450 voters in Dornan’s 38th District in late August was the “simulated election” question: Which candidate would you vote for if the election were held today?

At the end of the survey, which lasted about 20 minutes, Fairbank said, 45% of the respondents said they would vote for Robinson, 33% said they would vote for Dornan and 22% were undecided.

Those polled also were asked at the beginning of the survey, before pollsters offered any information about either candidate, who they thought would win the election if it were held that day. Fairbank reported that 42% said Dornan would win, 33% said Robinson would win and 25% had no opinion.

Suggestive of ‘Vulnerability’

Fairbank, Robinson campaign manager Hope Warschaw and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Johnson called the 9% gap between Robinson and Dornan in that early question strongly suggestive of Dornan’s vulnerability.

They also pointed out that, when asked about general favorable/unfavorable feelings toward Dornan, 26% of those surveyed gave him an unfavorable rating, 32% were somewhat favorable and 24% had heard about him but didn’t know enough to rate him. Forty-four percent of the voters said they didn’t know enough about Robinson, 40% said they thought favorably of him and 5% gave him an unfavorable rating, Fairbank said.

The results show that “Dornan is much weaker than most people” thought, Fairbank contended.

Noting that Dornan is a first-term congressman from Garden Grove who previously represented a West Los Angeles district, Fairbank said: “After eight to 10 years in this media market, he should have a higher favorable rating and a higher rating on the initial vote. Usually, if an incumbent is under 40% (on the initial vote question), he’s in trouble.” During the survey, Fairbank said, voters were given positive and negative information about each candidate.

Denied Biased Picture

This included comments that Robinson had worked on local issues while Dornan spent many hours on international affairs, had voted against money to clean up toxic waste and had voted against cost-of-living adjustments in Social Security benefits, Fairbank said. But he denied that the survey questions created a biased picture.

“It doesn’t do any good to ask questions and bias them,” he said, adding that the main purpose of a poll like this one is to assess voters’ feelings about a candidate and develop strategy from that.

One negative question asked about Robinson was whether voters were concerned about his alleged link to convicted political corrupter J. Patrick Moriarty. Robinson has been named as one of many politicians who allegedly accepted prostitutes from Moriarty. He has repeatedly said the allegation is false, and he has not been charged with any crime.

Fairbank said that he could not elaborate on this section of the survey but that about 65% of those polled said they were not concerned about the Moriarty allegation.