The Times Poll : Americans Leery of U.S. Military Moves Into Gulf

The American public is very leery of President Reagan’s decision to order U.S. Navy escorts for Kuwaiti oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, believing that his policy carries a high risk of getting the United States into war, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Furthermore, Americans appear to have no stomach for military retaliation against Iran in the event that a Kuwaiti ship flying a U.S. flag is sunk by Iranians.

Although agreeing that the Persian Gulf is vital to this country’s national security, and highly supportive of the concept of using American military power to prevent Communist expansion, those interviewed tend to think that U.S. forces already are spread too thin around the world.

The survey results indicate that Reagan has yet to make his case with the public for increasing America’s military exposure in the Persian Gulf, where 37 American sailors died May 17 in an Iraqi missile attack on the Navy frigate Stark.

Still, Reagan’s overall job approval rating has not suffered because of the Persian Gulf situation, although the public continues to be skeptical about his handling of foreign affairs in the wake of the Iran- contra scandal.

Politically, Vice President George Bush has taken a 13-point lead over Senate Republican Leader Bob Dole of Kansas in their quest for the GOP presidential nomination, the poll found. And on the Democratic side, New York Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, who is not even a candidate, leads Jesse Jackson by eight points.

The nationwide telephone survey of 2,317 adults, supervised by Times Poll Director I. A. Lewis, was conducted over a four-day period ending Monday night. The margin of error for this size survey is 3 percentage points in either direction.

Two-thirds of those interviewed said they had paid “a lot of attention” to the attack on the frigate Stark. But it was clear from their responses that, as an American battle cry, “Remember the Stark” probably will not go down in history with “Remember the Maine.”

In fact, the poll found more opponents than supporters of Reagan’s plan, beginning later this month, to fly the American flag from 11 Kuwaiti oil tankers and provide them with U.S. Navy protection as they ply the Persian Gulf. Only 27% of the people favored Reagan’s policy, while 32% opposed it. The other 41% were not sure.

And if one of those U.S.-protected Kuwaiti ships should be sunk by an Iranian attack, only 29% of those interviewed said they would favor retaliation. Of that total, 13% said they favored blockading Iran, 10% would bomb Iran and 6% would “send in U.S. troops.”

The biggest single response, from 26% of those interviewed, was that there should be no retaliation. Another 19% would favor only a “protest through diplomatic channels.” Just 1% thought the United States, in such a case, should take sides with Iraq in its long war with Iran. And the remaining 25% basically had no opinion.

Reagan has refused to say how the United States would respond to an attack by Iran, telling reporters last week that he wants the Iranians to “go to bed every night wondering what we might do.”

More than half of those interviewed--52%--felt the United States now faces a “high risk” of getting into a war in the Persian Gulf. Forty percent said the risk is low, and 8% had no opinion.

People did not express overwhelming confidence in the combat readiness of U.S. forces generally--47% believing they are ready, 40% feeling they are not and 13% having no opinion. In answer to another question, however, 51% said the U.S. forces in the Middle East are “strong,” and only 20% considered them “weak.”

The American public apparently is confused, as are many members of Congress, about why the Stark did not defend itself against the missile-firing Iraqi warplane. Among those surveyed, 28% theorized it was because “the Stark could not believe it would be attacked.” Another 26% blamed “a poor state of combat readiness.” And 23% said it was “because the Stark lacked clear guidelines for its self-defense.”

People also are suspicious of why the Iraqi pilot fired the missile. Nearly two-thirds--63%--said the U.S. government “accepted too quickly the Iraqi explanation that the attack was a case of mistaken identity.” Only 23% felt Washington was justified in quickly accepting the explanation, and 14% were not sure.

Asked their personal opinions of why the Iraqi pilot attacked the Stark, the biggest response--30%--was that “he was under orders to involve the United States more deeply in the Iran-Iraq War.” Another 26% accepted the Iraqi explanation that it was a mistake. But 17% thought it was “because Iraqis resent the missiles America sent secretly to Iran” in an effort, among other things, to gain release of the U.S. hostages in Lebanon.

About half--49%--said “the United States has spread its armed forces too thin overseas,” while roughly a third--34%--felt “we are able to meet all our commitments.” The other 17% were not sure.

In any case, 63% agreed that “the U.S. government should take all steps necessary, including the use of American fighting men, to prevent the spread of communism.” Twenty-eight percent disagreed with that thesis, and 9% were not sure.

And while they are not too keen on escorting Kuwaiti ships, about half the people--49%--said U.S. involvement generally in the Persian Gulf “is vital to our national defense.” Less than a quarter--24%--disagreed. The other 27% were not sure.

While The Times was conducting its survey, a poll taken by the Washington Post and ABC News reported that 75% of those it interviewed agreed with Reagan that the U.S. “should maintain a military presence in the Persian Gulf to protect our interests in the region.”

According to the Times Poll, American citizens believe that the Reagan Administration’s primary goal in the Persian Gulf is to keep the sea lanes open for international navigation. Asked to name “the most important” objective, 33% answered “to protect free access to international waters,” and 28% said “to guard sea lanes for the shipment of oil”--two answers that revolve around the same idea and add up to 61%. Only 14% believed that it was “to halt Russian expansion southward into the gulf,” a desire that this and every recent American President has placed at the top of their agenda.

However, fewer than 6 in 10 of those interviewed--58%--knew that the Persian Gulf was located in the Middle East. Eighteen percent picked some other part of the world, and 24% said they were not sure.

Reagan seems to have avoided suffering any popularity loss because of the Stark episode. Fifty-three percent said they approve of how he is “handling his job as President,” and 42% disapproved--almost the same figures that the Times Poll found in a March survey.

His rating as a manager of foreign affairs has not suffered either, but it was not very high to begin with, having tumbled after the Iran-contra scandal broke last November. In this survey, more people--47%--disapproved of “the way Ronald Reagan is handling foreign relations” than approved--45%.

Meanwhile, Reagan’s vice president was faring well in his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, based on this survey. The standings were Bush, 35%; Dole, 22%; Rep. Jack Kemp of New York, 8%; former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr., 5%; TV evangelist Pat Robertson, 3%; former Nevada Sen. Paul Laxalt, 2%; former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont, 2%; others, 7%, and not aware or no opinion, 16%.

In the Democratic contest, it was non-candidate Cuomo, 21%; Jackson, 13%; Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, 6%; Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, 4%; Sen. Albert Gore Jr. of Tennessee, 3%; non-candidate Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia, 3%; Sen. Paul Simon of Illinois, 3%; Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, 2%; former Gov. Bruce Babbitt of Arizona, 2%; others, 13%, and not aware or no opinion, 30%.

PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES

Who would you like to see the Democrats nominate for President in 1988? Responses by eligible Democrats *:

Mario M. Cuomo 21%

The Rev. Jesse Jackson 13 Michael S. Dukakis 6 Richard A. Gephardt 4 Albert Gore Jr. 3 Sam Nunn 3 Paul Simon 3 Bruce Babbitt 2 Joseph R. Biden Jr. 2 Other 13 Not Aware or No Opinion 30 Who would you like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 1988? Responses by eligible Republicans *:

George Bush 35%

Bob Dole 22 Jack Kemp 8 Alexander M. Haig Jr. 5 Pat Robertson 3 Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont 2 Paul Laxalt 2 Other 7 Not Aware or No Opinion 16 * Voters who meet state requirements to participate in party selections of presidential nominees.