LIFE AFTER THE SHOT : NATIONAL PREVIEW : It’s a Good Bet Indiana Won’t Repeat

The safest bet on the 1988 NCAA basketball championship: Not Indiana. The past 14 national champions are 0-14 in title defenses. After that, it gets difficult.

A look at the country’s top basketball teams, arranged alphabetically within groups:

THE FIRST FIVE

MICHIGAN

Just how good this team proves to be should be one of the most exciting developments of the season. Much to Coach Bill Frieder’s dismay, ESPN analyst Dick Vitale has been hawking Michigan as a preseason No. 1 for months, largely in expectation of great things from celebrated Proposition 48 players Terry Mills, a forward, and guard Rumeal Robinson, who were forced to sit out last season, as well as much-publicized freshman forward Sean Higgins, formerly of Fairfax High. If these guys--blue-chips, every one--produce as people expect them to right off, the Wolverines could be truly great. If they struggle, then guard Gary Grant--the Big 10 defensive player of the year and Michigan’s all-everything--will have to carry this team, and do it without the help of Antoine Joubert and Gard Thompson. The Wolverines could find themselves, as they did last season, struggling in the middle of the difficult Big Ten. But as Vitale points out, Frieder--if he chose--could start a high school All-American at every position. Even if it doesn’t work, Grant, the man they call “the General,” will be fun to watch.

MISSOURI The Tigers, who beat out Kansas in the Big Eight last season, have probably the best depth of any team in the country this season, with every starter back. Most important, they have All-American Derrick Chievous, a 6-7 forward who already is the school’s all-time leading scorer. This guy wears Band-Aids, even when he doesn’t need them, but he also scores 24 points a game. In transfer Byron Irvin, the Tigers add a three-point threat. All they need is progress from 7-0 center Gary Leonard, and to avoid an early exit from the NCAA tournament, for a change. The Tigers haven’t won an NCAA tournament game since 1982. Look for the drought to end.

NORTH CAROLINA

It had looked like Dean Smith might be telling the truth for once when he called the Tar Heels overrated this season. But then North Carolina beat Syracuse in the Tip-Off game without J.R. Reid. With J.R., the outstanding sophomore whom Smith suspended for one game after Reid and another player were charged with simple assault after an altercation in a Raleigh, N.C., bar, the Tar Heels are immensely better. Even though there is only one senior on the team--Ranzino Smith, who has been a reserve--and only two returning starters--Reid and guard Jeff Lebo--the Tar Heel prospects look good. Yawn. Dean Smith will depend mightily on the inside performance of center Scott Williams, a sophomore out of Hacienda Heights Wilson, who must help replace Joe Wolf and Dave Popson. From among Pete Chilcutt, the hero of the Syracuse game, Steve Bucknall, Kevin Madden and impressive freshman Pete Fox, the Tar Heels need two good forwards. That shouldn’t be a problem. North Carolina should have little difficulty replacing Kenny Smith at point guard. That will fall either to Ranzino Smith or to a marvelously named freshman, King Rice. He may sound like the son of a Southerner, but he’s from upstate New York--and was perhaps the best prep point guard in the nation last season.

PITTSBURGH

Syracuse may be the odds-on favorite to win the NCAA championship, but when Big East coaches picked their favorite for the conference championship, seven of nine chose the Panthers, testament in part to the remarkable rebounding ability of Jerome Lane, who at 6-6 led the nation last season as a sophomore with a 13.5 average. Lane is part of a fine front line built around last season’s leading scorer Charles Smith, a 6-10 senior center who was convinced to stick around, forgoing the pros for another season. Demetreus Gore, a swingman, returns and will play guard this season. Pitt has one major problem: Point guard. Last season’s starter, Michael Goodson, is academically ineligible, not just for the semester, but the entire season. Still, the Big East hardly seems limited in its ability to send teams to the Final Four--in the past six years, seven conference teams have made it, including Syracuse and Providence last season. This season, Pitt and Syracuse could both be there.

SYRACUSE

The team that missed the 1987 NCAA title by one point--or four seconds, take your pick--was picked by many as the preseason No. 1, largely because of Rony Seikaly’s emergence during the tournament. But the Orangemen look less impressive after a loss Saturday to North Carolina, which was playing without J.R. Reid. Seikaly, a 6-11 senior center, averaged 23 points in six NCAA games last season, 8 points above his regular-season average, and got the better of both Florida’s Dwayne Schintzius and North Carolina’s Reid. Memories of Dwayne (Pearl) Washington faded far more quickly than anyone expected when point guard Sherman Douglas, now a junior, broke Washington’s single-season assist record and led the team in scoring. Derrick Coleman, just a sophomore, returns at power forward, and the Orangemen’s only two losses from the starting lineup were role-players Greg Monroe and Howard Triche. One thing is certain, whatever the Orangemen do, plenty of people will be watching: Syracuse, which plays its home games in the 33,000-capacity Carrier Dome, last season set an NCAA attendance record (826,182 in 38 games). Sounds more like a bad season for a major league baseball team.

THE SECOND STRING INDIANA

It is, after all, the season after the NCAA title, and no team has repeated since UCLA won in 1972 and ’73. The first two times Bob Knight’s teams won NCAA titles--in 1976 and 81--the Hoosiers did not do so much as win the Big 10 championship the next season. “We are not the defending national champs,” Keith Smart said. “We’re not that team.” But this team returns three starters, more than either of the past two Indiana NCAA champions. If Keith Smart, who hit the shot to win the title last season, can take on a good part of Steve Alford’s scoring load, and Dean Garrett and Rick Calloway maintain the inside game, Indiana could be in the thick of things again. Among the recruits: Not one Indiana Mr. Basketball, but two. Jay Edwards and Lyndon Jones led their high school team to three consecutive titles in the state’s famed single-division championships, and for the feat were named Co-Mr. Basketballs. One thing is certain: In the Big Ten, the best conference in the land this season, the Hoosiers will be tested early and often.

KENTUCKY

Rex Chapman, the fresh-faced youngster from Owensboro, Ky., who lived the Kentucky dream, winning the state’s coveted Mr. Basketball award as a high school senior and then becoming the first freshman ever to lead the Wildcats in scoring, should only get better. He started every game last season, save one--senior night. Three other starters return, and the troubles that led to an 18-11 season last season--heavy reliance on backcourt scoring and such lack of depth that an assistant coach had to fill in for a 5-on-5 scrimmage--should be past. The front line gets an immediate boost with the return of Winston Bennett, a 6-7 forward who started two seasons ago but sat out after knee surgery last season. The depth has been shored up by a fine recruiting class--this in a state in which basketball recruiting may be the third major sport, if not second. The newcomers include the state players of the year from Kentucky, Georgia and California. The latter would be LeRon Ellis, the 6-11 center from Santa Ana Mater Dei who led the Monarchs to the California state championship and was the California state player of the year. Word is Ellis looks like a sixth man now, behind incumbent Rob Lock, and may be starting long before its over.

PURDUE

Another of the several Big Ten teams that could win the national title, and a No. 1 pick in at least one magazine’s preseason poll. The Boilermakers are big and powerful, no question, but there is reason for reservation. Guard Troy Lewis, last season’s leading scorer, may be slowed by off-season foot surgery. Forward Todd Mitchell had knee surgery. Sometimes unsteady guard Everette Stephens and forward Melvin McCants are also back from a team that was was ranked seventh in the final AP poll last season. But McCants was to move from center to forward to free up the middle for Jeff Arnold, a beefy, 6-10 El Toro product, who nixed that idea for now by being declared academically ineligible until January. Talented, sure, but Purdue hasn’t made it past the second round of the NCAA tournament since 1980, when Joe Barry Carroll led them to the Final Four. If the Boilermakers can’t do better this season, Coach Gene Keady should feel very, very bad.

TEMPLE

Think anyone at Temple might be confident? For your convenience, the Owl media guide includes a full-page copy of the 1988 NCAA championship bracket, although it has been left to the bearer to fill it in. Four starters return from a 32-4 team that lost only to Nevada Las Vegas, Kansas, West Virginia and Louisiana State. To replace their leading scorer, guard Nate Blackwell, the Owls have Mark Macon, a blue-chip freshman who was Mr. Basketball in Michigan last season and whom Coach John Chaney calls flat-out “the very best guard in America.” Chaney, who has the third highest winning percentage among active coaches--Dean Smith is a notch below him at fourth--also compares Macon’s floor vision to that of Oscar Robinson and Jerry West. Three of the four returning starters--guard Howard Evans, forward Tim Perry and swingman Mike Vreeswyk--averaged in double figures. With games against UCLA, Nevada Las Vegas, and North Carolina scheduled, this may be the season Temple puts the Atlantic 10 on the map.

WYOMING

This is a team so remarkably appealing--both because of the Cowboys’ personality and their unlikely home--that Sports Illustrated made the Cowboys their cover story even though they were not the magazine’s No. 1 pick. Fennis Dembo--he of name and the now-famous wink--and Eric Leckner led the Cowboys into the NCAA Final 16 last season. They return, along with not only the rest of the starters but the first few off the bench. Bennie Dees, Wyoming’s affable new coach, walked into this situation after guiding New Orleans to a 26-4 season last season. “I’m thankful as heck to have this team,” Dees said. But he also knows expectations are very, very high for what is likely the best team in the West.

THE BACKUPS

DUKE

Just two seasons after a senior-dominated team lost to Louisville in the NCAA final, the Blue Devils return four starters from a 24-9 team. How well they can do depends upon Quin Snyder’s ability to replace point guard Tommy Amaker, who steered both last season’s team and the Final Four team. Danny Ferry, the 6-10 junior center who is the son of Washington Bullets General Manager Bob Ferry, is the top returner on a team that could slip past North Carolina to win the Atlantic Coast Conference.

FLORIDA

Norm Sloan’s main claim to fame remains his 1974 NCAA championship team at North Carolina State, courtesy largely of David Thompson. Sloan has been at Florida for 14 years now, and the Gators have yet to win even a conference basketball title. This is a season in which they have a shot. With Vernon Maxwell, an All-American guard in many estimations, and streaky, sometimes cocky 7-2 sophomore center Dwayne Schintzius back from last season’s 23-11 team that lost to Syracuse in the Final 16, they have a shot at upsetting Kentucky for the Southeastern Conference title--if not more.

GEORGIA TECH

In a weak season for the Atlantic Coast Conference, this is likely the only team that will be in the running with North Carolina and Duke for any title. Tom Hammonds and Duane Ferrell, both ACC rookies of the year in their time, make a fine frontcourt pair. But center is a question, as is a backcourt that is minus Bruce Dalrymple and plus too much Dennis Scott. Scott, a 6-7 freshman guard, has been considered one of the top recruits in the country, but at the U.S. Olympic Festival last summer he was very much overweight--and under-impressive.

KANSAS

That Danny Manning--and Coach Larry Brown--are still around is the most amazing thing about this team. Manning, the best college player in the country and one of the most mobile big men ever, is still in Lawrence for his senior year, rather than in some city with a pro basketball franchise. That’s about all the Jayhawks need to be good. How good will depend largely upon community college transfer Marvin Branch, one of the top junior college centers last season, plus the performance of a number of newcomers at guard.

LOUISVILLE

Two seasons removed from an NCAA title, and one season removed from failing even to make the tournament, Louisville may be back. Pervis Ellison, formerly Never Nervous, is out to prove himself after slumping in his sophomore year. Herbert Crook and Tony Kimbro join Ellison in a fine returning front line, marred only by the fact that Kimbro, who apparently tends to skip classes, will sit out until Dec. 19. The backcourt, however, needs help, and Coach Denny Crum is hoping he will get it from Keith Williams and freshman LaBradford Smith.

THE OUTSIDERS

ARIZONA

The Wildcats lost five games by one point last season, and one more by just two points. Had those losses been wins, Arizona would have been 24-6. This season, there’s no reason for them not to be at least that good. Every 1987 starter returns, plus one more: Steve Kerr, the smooth ball-handling guard who missed last season because of major knee surgery. The Wildcats only lost one senior: Bruce Fraser, who took only five shots last season. Easily the class of the Pac-10.

BRADLEY

You probably could leave the Braves out of a preseason top 20, but it would be hard to talk about college basketball without mentioning Hersey Hawkins, the 6-3 senior whose 27.2-point average last season makes him the nation’s top returning scorer in Division I. Bradley, which finished 17-12 last season, is hoping to return to the level of 1986, when the Braves went 32-3, upsetting Texas El Paso in the NCAA tournament before losing to eventual champion Louisville. Five starters return from last season’s team, which was prohibited from television appearances and postseason play because of NCAA probation. Although the program remains on probation this season, that no longer prohibits television appearances or postseason play. Meanwhile, Hawkins likely will become the Missouri Valley Conference’s third all-time leading scorer before the season is over--behind Oscar Robertson and Larry Bird.

DE PAUL

The Blue Demons finished 28-3 and ranked fifth in the final AP poll last season, and have made the NCAA Final 16 the past two seasons. They looked like a top 20 team even with the loss of leading scorer and rebounder Dallas Comegys. Until last week, when smooth junior point guard Rod Strickland, last season’s second-leading scorer, was declared academically ineligible until the end of the quarter. Strickland may return by mid-to-late December, at best. Until then, De Paul drops out of any top 20, although three other starters return.

IOWA

The Hawkeyes lost Kevin Gamble and Brad Lohaus from a 30-5 team that made the Final Eight before losing to Nevada Las Vegas. But Roy Marble returns, and that is enough for Iowa to merit attention, even in the intensely competitive Big Ten. One other starter, B.J. Armstrong, returns among a total of eight veterans.

NOTRE DAME

For one reason: David Rivers. Three starters return, although leading scorer and rebounder Donald Royal and steady guard Scott Hicks are gone. But Coach Digger Phelps expects Rivers--who played last season after recovering from a near-fatal car accident--to pick up much of the slack, no matter where it comes from.