Gephardt, Simon ‘Bounce’ From Iowa Finish Held Mild : Dukakis Seems Secure in N.H.

MANCHESTER, N.H. —  Despite Michael S. Dukakis’ third-place finish in Iowa, the Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire shapes up this week much as it did last fall: a race for second place behind the popular Massachusetts governor.

State campaign officials and analysts agreed Tuesday they saw little evidence that either Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt or Illinois Sen. Paul Simon, who placed first and second in Iowa, drew enough “bounce” from the tight caucus results to catch New Hampshire front-runner Dukakis in the first-in-the-nation primary Tuesday.

“My sense is there is no comparison to the bump Gephardt gets out of this compared to what Gary Hart got in 1984,” said Joseph Grandmaison, chairman of the state Democratic Party, referring to Hart’s leapfrog victory over Walter F. Mondale after placing second in Iowa four years ago.

But in a state where political perceptions are often as important as votes cast, there was broad disagreement over who had benefited most from Iowa’s hard-fought caucuses.

Some argued that a three-way race would help Dukakis, splintering his opposition and preventing Gephardt or Simon from emerging as the dominant challenger. Others said Dukakis himself was most at risk now, because the campaign had become a race of competing regional candidates.

‘Dukakis Has Most to Lose’

“Michael Dukakis has the most to lose here,” said Barbara Dunfey, a local Democratic activist and former political consultant. “No matter how well he does, he’s still a neighboring governor. And if he doesn’t do very very well, where can he expect to win?”

Gary R. Orren, a pollster at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, said Dukakis’ support may erode as voters focus on the other candidates, but that Dukakis does not appear vulnerable to a surprise upset.

“I think this campaign is Gephardt versus Simon for second place, and how much they shoot at each other rather than shooting at Dukakis,” Orren said.

Orren’s most recent poll of 600 Democrats, published Sunday in the Boston Globe, showed Dukakis holding a 38% lead in the state, down from 40% in a December poll. Simon was second with 17%, up from 14%, while Gephardt had 9%, up from 3%.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see a stiff two-person race by the end of the week,” said David Moore, a pollster at the University of New Hampshire. “Just Gephardt and Dukakis. I’m not sure what could give Simon momentum here.”

Simon Camp Senses Support

Not surprisingly, the Simon camp disagreed. “Paul has a hell of a lot more support here than Gephardt,” said Mike Marshall, Simon’s state campaign director.

Simon faces several disadvantages, however. He has spent 42 days in the state, less than his rivals, and his financially strapped campaign has not run TV ads since mid-January. Moreover, his organization is considered far weaker than his rivals’.

Asked Tuesday if his campaign was broke, Simon said, “We do not have the money for a huge media buy, but will probably have some media and probably concentrate on radio rather than TV.”

The Rev. Jesse Jackson hopes to double his 5.3% New Hampshire showing from 1984, according to Steve Cancian, state campaign director. “If we can do what we did in Iowa, broaden our base and exceed our expectations, then we can confirm that 11% in Iowa wasn’t an aberration,” he said.

Cancian argues that Jackson faces a tougher fight here. “Iowa has 152 black churches,” he said. “New Hampshire has one-and-a-half. Iowa just went through a farm crisis. New Hampshire has the nation’s lowest unemployment. Iowa has the reputation for the most liberal Democrats in the country. New Hampshire has just the opposite.”

Gore Keeps Full Staff

Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. quit Iowa last November and barely registered in the caucus votes. Although he has tried to play down his expectations in New Hampshire, he has maintained a full campaign staff and visited the state 36 times. He began running $20,000 worth of TV ads in Manchester and Concord last Friday, with a tag line that Gore is “the one Democrat who can win.”

“We’re looking at New Hampshire as spring training for Super Tuesday,” said Richard Nicholson, Gore’s state campaign manager, referring to the March 8 Southern regional primaries.

Just as farm policy dominated the debate in Iowa, local issues will be prominent here. Chief among them is the Seabrook nuclear power plant. Even his opponents cede the issue to Dukakis, who is running TV ads claiming credit for effectively blocking the opening of the facility by refusing to grant evacuation permits for nearby Massachusetts towns. The plant’s main owner, Public Service Co. of New Hampshire, sought protection under federal bankruptcy laws two weeks ago.

Less clear is how Gephardt’s message blaming unfair trade policies for America’s financial woes and his calls for an oil-import fee will play. Jim Demers, his state campaign chairman, said the message appeals as much to blue-collar workers here as hard-pressed farmers in Iowa. Not everyone agrees.

Worries Over Fuel Bills

“Protectionism won’t sell here,” said Mary Chambers, state House Democratic leader and a Dukakis supporter. “We lost the textile industry. We lost the shoe industry. But we recovered without protectionism. And the oil-import tax will add $400 to the oil bills here.”

Although Gephardt funneled nearly all his resources into Iowa, he kept a skeleton crew of 22 staff members here. He will bring in up to 100 veterans from the Iowa battleground, and an aide said he has spent about $75,000 on TV and radio ads.

Dukakis, who has 52 paid staffers, plans to bring more than 1,500 students and supporters to blanket the state over the weekend. The campaign’s TV and radio ads are running in Manchester and Concord, as well as surrounding markets in Maine, Vermont and Massachusetts.

But Simon’s aides may have the most ambitious strategy. “We’re going to try to shake every hand in New Hampshire,” said Jim Killpatrick, Simon’s Senate press secretary.

Staff writer Keith Love contributed to this story.