The Times/CNN Poll : Dukakis Lost Own Issue: Competence

Simply put, George Bush captured the “mainstream” and even took away Michael S. Dukakis’ chosen issue--”competence”--then withstood a late Dukakis surge to win the presidential election, a Los Angeles Times/CNN survey of voters showed Tuesday.

Dukakis, who had proclaimed to the Democratic National Convention last July, “This election is not about ideology--it’s about competence,” wound up losing on both scores. Voters in the end judged Bush to be the most competent and Dukakis to be ideologically too liberal.

Successful Strategy

Bush’s strategy of defining Dukakis as an out-of-the-mainstream liberal paid off all across the electoral spectrum, the Times/CNN survey showed. The Republican vice president was favored by middle-income voters, 5 to 4. He held his Democratic opponent to a draw among political moderates and won 5 to 1 within the biggest philosophical bloc, the conservatives.

In one respect, the decisive vote was cast by self-described Independents, who constitute one-fourth of the electorate and split 5 to 4 for Bush. Democrats and Republicans voted loyally for their own party’s nominees, by lopsided ratios of at least 9 to 1.

By the final week of the campaign, 80% of voters had decided whom to support, and their candidate was Bush, by 5 to 4. Given the situation--including a popular President and voter optimism about the economy--this lead was much too big for Dukakis to overcome with his final charge.

Decisions in Final Days

The voters who decided in the final days split 5 to 4 for Dukakis, but they amounted to just one fifth of the electorate.

The Times/CNN survey, supervised by Times Poll Director I. A. Lewis, involved interviews across the nation with 6,043 voters after they had cast their ballots. The margin of error was 2 percentage points in either direction.

“The poll showed that Dukakis pulled the Democratic base together better than either Jimmy Carter in 1980 or Walter Mondale in 1984,” Times political analyst William Schneider said. “But that base has shrunk. You can’t win presidential elections any more by holding the Democratic Party together.”

For example, Democrats on Tuesday gave Dukakis a 6 percentage point greater vote than they had Mondale, but they made up only 30% of the nation’s electorate, down from 34% in 1984. Liberals, although they voted more than 4 to 1 for Dukakis, amounted to less than one-fourth of this year’s electorate, compared to nearly one-third in 1984.

“Reagan Democrats”--those Democrats who abandoned their party and voted for President Reagan in 1984--sided this time with Dukakis by 7 to 4. But they made up only 5% of the voters, down from 16% four years ago--and the reason seems obvious: Many former Democrats who voted for Reagan now consider themselves to be Independents or Republicans.

Blacks for Dukakis

Blacks have voted heavily Democratic in modern times, and they did so on Tuesday--81% for Dukakis. But, for whatever reason--perhaps because of resentment over the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s ultimate role in the campaign--blacks gave Dukakis a 10 percentage point smaller vote than they had Mondale, and they made up a smaller share of the electorate: 9% this year to 13% in 1984.

Anglos accounted for 85% of the electorate, and they voted 57% to 41% for Bush. Southern white men voted 3 to 1 for Bush.

Latinos, making up 4% of the voters, went 2 to 1 for Dukakis. Asians, 2% of the electorate, supported Bush by 3 to 2.

Gender Gap

The gender gap was bigger this year than in either 1984 or 1980, the survey showed. Bush ran 10 points better among men than among women. In the last two presidential elections, the gender gap for Reagan was just 6 to 7 points. And, in each of those elections, men and women both went for the Republican. But, on Tuesday, women divided about evenly between the two candidates.

Reagan’s pulling power for Bush was seen in at least a couple of ways. First, voters approved of “the job Ronald Reagan is doing as President” by 3 to 2. And people who approved of the President’s performance in office voted 5 to 1 for Bush.

Also, the voters went to the polls basically optimistic about the economy, with 8 in 10 feeling that, even if it doesn’t get better, at least things will stay the same during the next four years. And these confident people voted 3 to 2 for Bush.

Personal Finances

And, answering a new version of Reagan’s own question to voters in 1980--”Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”--44% said that their personal financial situations had improved since the President was reelected in 1984. And they voted 7 to 3 for Bush. An additional 39% said things were “about the same,” and they split their vote roughly down the middle. Only 17% felt that their personal finances had “gotten worse,” and they supported Dukakis 7 to 3.

If Bush has any single mandate from his own voters, it is to reduce the federal budget deficit by cutting domestic spending first, perhaps even the military, but not by raising taxes. When allowed to choose one or two of the three options, 75% of the Bush supporters selected domestic cuts, 45% said go after the Pentagon and only 14% agreed to tax increases--a clear indication that the candidate’s repeated “Read my lips; no new taxes” pledge paid off.

Dukakis’ voters, mirroring the Democratic Establishment, had a distinctly different approach to resolving the deficit--76% advocated cutting the military, 37% agreed to domestic cuts and 26% said raise taxes.

Bush did not get a mandate to cut capital gains taxes, as he has proposed. That idea ranked at the bottom of a list of things “the federal government should do,” even among his own supporters. At the top of the list was “requiring testing for AIDS,” “funding a child care program” and “promoting traditional family values.”

Evidence that Dukakis’ “competence” pitch backfired was seen when people were asked why they voted for their candidate. Of those who decided on the basis of competence, Bush was favored by roughly 3 to 1. And “competence” was second highest on the list of decision factors.

‘I’m on Your Side’

Rating highest on this list was “experience,” a decision-factor that favored Bush by 32 to 1. Dukakis’ best factor--third on the list--was the feeling that “he cares about people like me”: the populist “I’m on your side” appeal that the Democrat campaigned heavily on during the final two weeks. People who chose a candidate because “he cares” favored Dukakis by 3 to 1.

Of lesser importance was an attitude that Dukakis needed more of among voters: “It’s time for a change.” People seeking change supported Dukakis by 18 to 1.

What Bush’s supporters liked least about Dukakis, they said overwhelmingly, was that “his views are too liberal.” Also rating relatively high on the list of “least likable” things about Dukakis were that “he’s too risky,” “he has shown bad judgment” and “he just leaves me cold.”

Dukakis’ supporters also faulted Bush for “bad judgment” and said “he’s too close to the special interests,” as well as “too tied to the past.” But what they disliked the most about Bush, by far, was that “he ran a dirty campaign.”

Negative Campaign

More than half of the electorate thought the 1988 presidential campaign was “more negative than usual.” But those people divided their votes about equally between Bush and Dukakis. Bush tended to be blamed a bit more than Dukakis for the negative campaigning.

In the end, roughly three-fourths of the people said they voted “for” a candidate rather than “against” his opponent.

Voters’ impression of Bush was generally positive--54% favorable to 39% unfavorable. But their impression of Bush’s running mate, Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle, remained negative--32% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

The voters’ overall view of Dukakis was mixed--46% favorable, 46% unfavorable. But his running mate, Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, was highly popular--55% favorable, 23% unfavorable.

THE LOS ANGELES TIMES / CNN POLL

Bush/Quayle Dukakis/Bentsen Sex: Male 58% 40% Female 49% 50% Age: 18-24 55% 44% 25-29 54% 45% 30-39 52% 46% 40-49 55% 43% 50-59 57% 42% 60 and over 52% 47% Education: Not a H.S. graduate 39% 60% High school graduate 54% 45% Some college 55% 43% Race/ethnic group: White 57% 41% Black 16% 81% Latino 33% 65% Asian 61% 39% Religion: Protestant 58% 40% Catholic 49% 50% Jewish 24% 74% Occupation: Manager 64% 34% Technician 57% 41% White collar 56% 43% Blue collar 48% 51% Income: $20,000 or less 41% 57% $20,000-$40,000 56% 43% $40,000 or more 62% 37% Party affiliation: Democrat 10% 89% Republican 95% 5% Independent 54% 43% Voted in U.S. House election: For the Democrat 18% 81% For the Republican 90% 9% Voted in 1984: For Reagan (R) 82% 17% For Mondale (D) 8% 91%

Source: The Los Angeles Times / CNN Election Day Poll