Crush of Sales at Last Minute Makes Retailers’ Season Cheerier

It’s official--more or less.

Although most of the nation’s big chains won’t release December sales figures until next week, retailers and economists said Wednesday that the holiday shopping season progressed about as expected, with a big surge in the Friday and Saturday before Christmas.

Thanks largely to the late push, most retailers managed to post the modest gains of 5% to 7% they had been forecasting--increases that look negligible once inflation is taken into account. And experts say retailers can expect 1989 sales to be just as mediocre.

“As expected, everyone waited until the last week” to shop, said Rosalind Wells, a New York consultant who is chief economist for the National Retail Merchants Assn., the industry’s largest trade group. “People were out in droves, and business was good,” offsetting some earlier sluggishness.

“The few days right before Christmas exploded in business,” agreed Edward S. Finkelstein, chairman of R.H. Macy & Co., owner of Bullock’s, Bullocks Wilshire and I. Magnin. He added that post-season Christmas sales also have been stronger than a year ago.

‘Respectable’ Sales

The season was a “textbook December” with few surprises, according to Philip M. Hawley, chairman of Carter Hawley Hale Stores in Los Angeles, which owns the Broadway. In terms of markdowns, he said, the month was “one of the best Decembers we’ve had.” While that might be good news for the company’s profits, it means that customers will find fewer sale items.

Overall, Carter Hawley Hale expects to report a “respectable December,” Hawley said.

Macy’s, meanwhile, is looking for December sales gains of 7% to 8%. Earlier, Federated Department Stores and Allied Stores, both owned by Campeau Corp., reported increases over last year’s holiday period of 6%, aided by a 27% gain during Christmas week. Though a modest increase, the results exceeded “even our most optimistic expectations,” according to James M. Zimmerman, president and chief operating officer for the two companies, which include Bloomingdale’s, Abraham & Straus and Lazarus.

Among other merchants reporting results were Tiffany & Co., the prestigious jewelry and gift store, with a 15% gain during the holiday period at U.S. stores open at least a year, and K mart, the discount chain, with a 6% increase during what one official called a “see-saw” season.

Edgar S. Mangiafico, chairman of May Co. California, said the chain’s results exceeded last year’s and the company’s expectations. In Beverly Hills, Jerry Magnin, owner of the Polo/Ralph Lauren shop, said Christmas “came early” and was “fabulous,” with a 20% boost.

The Limited, a leading specialty chain that has stumbled through more than a year of poor sales of women’s clothing, is expected to show strong gains of 19% for December, according to Thomas H. Tashjian, vice president for retailing at the Seidler Amdec Securities brokerage firm in Los Angeles.

On the other hand, Sears, Roebuck & Co., the nation’s largest merchant, will likely come in with a rise of only 2% for the month, he said. The chain advertised heavily during the holiday season in advance of a strategy, slated for implementation next year, of offering “everyday low prices.”

Clearing the Decks

Looking ahead to 1989, retailers and economists seem to share a mood that “respectable” is about as good as it will get.

“It does not look to me that there’s anything out there that one could read as a buoyant retail climate,” said Finkelstein of Macy’s. However, he noted, improvements in spring selling will look especially good compared to this year’s spring season, “probably one of the softest that any of us could remember.”

Analyst Tashjian said he expects retailers to “continue along the conservative plan that most of them had for 1988.” A tipoff, he added, is that many retailers are aggressively marking down merchandise in this post-Christmas period to clear the decks and “sensibly position for 1989.”

The era of double-digit sales gains is over for now, Wells noted, projecting 1989 gains of 5% to 6%. “It’s just not going to happen at this point,” she said. “Until we have the next recession and recovery, we won’t see that. Which is just as well. If (retailers) plan properly, it could be a good year.”

Now, on to Valentine’s Day.