Even Loss in Nicaragua Vote Can Be Gain

The designation of newspaper publisher Violeta Barrios de Chamorro as the presidential candidate of the principal opposition parties in Nicaragua’s election, scheduled for February, marks a turning point in that country’s prolonged civil war. Chamorro, widow of the one-time leader of the anti-Somoza movement and herself a member of the original Sandinista government in 1979-80, should be able to unify the fragmented opposition, and therefore mount a strong campaign. Even if she does not win--and defeat is probable--her effort may open the way toward greater political freedom and the eventual building of sustainable democracy in Nicaragua.

The United States has ended its reliance on the Contra war as the preferred instrument of U.S. policy, and Central America’s presidents, in turn, have agreed to procedures and a timetable for the internationally monitored dismantling of the Contra military camps.

With the external strategy for anti-Sandinista efforts petering out, Nicaraguans opposed to the Sandinista regime have finally decided to participate actively in the national election. Responding to strong international pressures, the Sandinistas have moved the election up by several months, decreed new electoral laws that respond to many of the demands made by opposition parties, and promised to provide the necessary conditions for a free and fair vote.

The tendency in Washington is to be skeptical about the likely fairness of the election. Even under the new electoral rules, many point out, the Sandinistas will have far more access to media time than the opposition parties. They have the state’s resources to deploy, a monopoly on military force and many opportunities to manipulate the electoral process.

These concerns are realistic. Few observers expect the Sandinistas to go willingly down to defeat; power wielders rarely do so and revolutionary vanguards do so even less frequently. The Sandinistas can be expected to use their incumbency and their control of the army to their advantage, and to try to keep the opposition parties divided.

After years of hearing Nicaragua described as a political dungeon and an economic disaster, the American public may not understand that even without fraud or intimidation, the Sandinistas must still be considered the favorites in February’s election. The legacy of the Contra war--and before that, of 40 years of the Somoza dynasty--is that Nicaragua’s opposition parties are weak, fragmented and lacking organizational strength. The Sandinista National Liberation Front, forged in the struggle against Somoza and strengthened by a decade of rule, is the only party in Nicaragua that can call on a national network of organizers. It puts out sophisticated propaganda, has disciplined leadership and is better financed than the opposition parties. Available polls, except one produced by the Chamorro’s own newspaper, La Prensa, show the probable Sandinista candidate, President Daniel Ortega, in the lead.

Despite the odds against them, Nicaragua’s opposition parties have decided to make a serious effort to challenge the Sandinistas in the political arena. They are ready, at last, to concentrate on organizing and competing, on playing the electoral game even though the rules are not perfect and the field is not absolutely level. The parties supporting Chamorro’s candidacy are ready to test their strength, even though they may well lose in February, for they know that in the long run their best chance at countering the Sandinistas’ authoritarian tendency is by building national support step by step.

Sustained, internal opposition to an authoritarian regime can eventually pay off. That is the lesson of the 1980s, in countries as different as the Philippines, Chile and Poland. In all these cases, a solidly entrenched regime with control of the electoral mechanism and the media was finally defeated, after years of effort, by a determined opposition willing to struggle within the system and to use every available space to gain ground.

Those who care about the ultimate prospects for democracy in Nicaragua should support the opposition’s decision to participate in the February election, even though doing so risks legitimizing the Sandinista regime and thus strengthening its hold in the short and intermediate term. Democratic opening in authoritarian situations is almost never achieved by force, unless a major power is willing to occupy a country for years and to impose democratic politics.

In country after country, democratic politics have been carved out of authoritarian conditions bit by bit, with each expansion of participation built, after explicit or tacit negotiation, on the basis of previous gains. That is how democracy is likely someday to emerge in Nicaragua, if Chamorro and her supporters will stay the course.