4 O.C. Spending Proposals in Trouble, Poll Indicates

SANTA ANA —  Every one of four spending proposals long-touted by officials as crucial to Orange County’s future is in deep political trouble, and putting them all on the November ballot could doom the whole batch, according to results of a poll released Tuesday.

In particular, the results appeared to scuttle prospects for a countywide November bond referendum on buying open space and saving Laguna Canyon from development.

The survey, which was conducted by J. Moore Methods, a prominent Sacramento pollster, questioned 700 residents--500 countywide and 200 in Laguna Beach--on an array of subjects. It found, among other things, that residents are strongly suspicious of the county’s development community and express relatively strong support for moderate environmental organizations and causes.

In the case of Laguna Canyon, however, that support fell short of what proponents had hoped for. After hearing arguments for and against a $200-million open space bond, 51% of the respondents would vote for it, but that is far from the 66% needed by law to pass such a measure.

“Most of us are feeling that it would be too difficult to get a bond issue going based on these results,” Laguna Beach Mayor Lida Lenney said Tuesday. “You need to start with a much stronger base.”

Lenney and other opponents of development in the environmentally sensitive canyon had hoped that a countywide bond might pay for buying the area and preserving it. Without some preservation plan, the Irvine Co.--which has been meeting with local environmentalists and helped pay for the poll--intends to go ahead with its Laguna Laurel project. It calls for building 3,200 homes on the 2,100-acre site.

To prevent that, opponents of the project will likely have to turn instead to Laguna Beach voters, asking them to approve a scaled-down bond issue that would buy at least a portion of the property. Laguna voters were also polled, and they showed strong support for a bond issue.

For county officials, however, the particularly distressing news from Tuesday’s results is that all of the government’s tax proposals under discussion for November face an uphill battle. Moreover, putting more than one of them on the ballot appears to threaten the chance for any of them to pass.

Transportation improvements and jail and court construction top the county’s wish list, but all face either overwhelming opposition or precariously thin support, the poll results indicate. The county is already facing a general fund shortfall for next year of about $40 million, so county officials have been hoping that voters would approve new taxes to pay for those facilities.

“This data will assist me in making my recommendations to the board about what ought to be on the ballot,” County Administrative Officer Ernie Schneider said. “We’re clearly not interested in putting something on the ballot that has not a prayer of passing.”

Supervisor Don R. Roth agreed. “It’s very, very bleak,” he said after hearing the poll results. “It says to me that if we put these things on the ballot together, we’ll drag them all down.”

Only 37% of respondents said they would support a sales tax to build a new jail, even though the county is under a federal court order to relieve jail overcrowding; 50% opposed that tax. Court construction, which county officials have been debating in recent weeks, fared even worse, as only 12% of county residents said they would back a $350-million bond, compared to 75% who opposed it.

“There is no way that judges should count on a new courthouse,” said Paul Freeman, a Laguna Beach public affairs consultant who is working with the Laguna Laurel Advisory Group, the committee that commissioned the poll. “That one’s a stinker.”

Support for a transportation sales tax was stronger, with 48% of the respondents saying they would likely back the measure, compared to 43% who opposed it.

But even that measure suffered when respondents were asked to imagine a ballot that included all of the spending proposals. All four dropped in popularity when considered together, and none won a majority.

That raises a concern among transportation proponents in particular, who worry that the relatively popular half-cent sales tax for transportation improvements might be hurt by any of the other proposals if they are included on the ballot.

The recent statewide passage of Proposition 111, a gasoline tax to pay for transportation improvements, will make some money available to Orange County. But the local government’s share will be limited, Schneider said, unless it can provide a percentage of matching funds.

“Almost certainly, the fewer measures on the ballot, the better they will all do,” Freeman said. “There’s no way that you can conclude anything but that, unless you get real lucky, the transportation tax is hurt by having these other things on the ballot with it.”

Supervisors will consider each of the spending measures in the coming weeks; they have until early August to make a final decision on the November ballot. In the meantime, the Orange County Transportation Commission is conducting a poll of its own, and Schneider said he will review those results before sending his recommendations to the board.

COUNTYWIDE POLL ON TAX ISSUES

Questions about four proposed bond and tax measures were included in a recent Orange County poll commissioned by organizations favoring the preservation of Laguna Canyon.

In all, J. Moore Methods of Sacramento asked 700 Orange County residents a wide range of questions about county issues and leaders. The results were presented in two groups: a countywide poll of 500 residents, including a representative number of Laguna Beach residents, and separate poll of 200 Laguna Beach residents. Results may have a 3% margin of error.

Listed below is the four-part question asked about tax and bond issues that may be considered for inclusion on the November general election ballot. The results below are percentages from the countywide poll results.

Question: There is a strong likelihood that there will be at least one, and maybe three or four measures on the ballot this November. If elected officials place (the issues below) on the ballot, would you support or oppose the measure?

Possible Measures: 1. A $350-million bond measure which would be used to construct a new county courthouse. Support: 12% Oppose: 75% Don’t Know: 13% Possible Measures: 2. A 1/2-cent increase in the Orange County sales tax to pay for transportation improvements. Support: 48% Oppose: 43% Don’t Know: 9% Possible Measures: 3. A 1/2-cent increase in the county sales tax to pay for the construction and maintenance of new county jail facilities. Support: 37% Oppose: 50% Don’t Know: 13% Possible Measures: 4. A $200-million bond measure that would be used to acquire open space and complete trails throughout the county. Support: 47% Oppose: 39% Don’t Know: 14%