PERSPECTIVE ON A NEW WORLD ORDER : U.S. Will Be the Equipoise to a Pax Germanica : Western Europeans could find the Soviet Union’s shadow replaced by a kinder, gentler German one.

Now that Moscow agrees to a united Germany in NATO, the question is: What’s the new NATO supposed to do? The Warsaw Pact is gone and with it the old rationale for a prominent U.S. role in Europe. A post-Cold War NATO with united Germany at its heart and America far away is undoubtedly prelude to a continental Pax Germanica.

That would be a great mistake and American policy can prevent it. Seeing how NATO, and the U.S. role within it, must evolve depends on understanding current political realities in Europe.

For the Soviets, NATO symbolizes defeat in the Cold War. But Moscow knows that a united Germany unmoored in a larger European context is riskier than one that is. It wants NATO’s political structure to envelop German power even as its military structure diminishes.

From the German perspective, NATO makes reunification less worrisome to others. It sets limits on German power. It binds Germany into an alliance structure that provides no positive rationale for German acquisition of nuclear weapons and promises some diplomatic equipoise against German economic might.

The U.S. perspective is fuzzier. German reunification within NATO represents vindication, but also the end of an era. Rollback with a human face has been satisfying, but it’s time to get beyond celebration to cogitation. Many Americans see no point to staying in Europe, especially if it costs money. But there’s good reason to stay and the reason is simple--there’s still a threat from the East that Europe cannot yet manage alone. The prospect of an imminent Soviet invasion is gone, but the Soviet Union is still a nuclear power with the largest army in Europe.

Only U.S. power can supply the equipoise. Without America, a wealthy Europe orbitting a militarily eunuched Germany becomes the milch cow of a poor and newly intimidating Russia. Without America, a nuclear-armed Germany holds up a tense continental balance. But the rest of Western Europe gets instead of a Russian hegemonism, a kinder and gentler German one.

The United States must protect the Continent from the spillover of any Soviet crackup or crackdown. It must referee conflict among the allies and ultimately must encourage a pan-European strategic deterrent, for only that can enable a safe American exit from the European security nexus.

To do this, NATO must evolve from a military shield to a diplomatic means to a stable European order. This is the proper goal of American policy in the new Europe.