Tightening the Circle: Message to Baghdad : Will Hussein ignore the signs? Could he misjudge again?

With a 120,000-man Iraqi army now poised menacingly in occupied Kuwait, and against a background of ominous intelligence reports about Iraqi intentions, President Bush has ordered American war planes and ground troops to Saudi Arabia to defend that vital country’s territory and independence.

This bold and responsible commitment is the most dramatic action yet taken as part of the unprecedented international response to Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s sudden and treacherous conquest of Kuwait. More than a reaction to a brutal act of aggression, it is specifically aimed at deterring further Iraqi expansionism into Saudi Arabia, a far richer and more momentous prize.

Saudi independence is vital to the United States and to scores of other countries for one reason above all: Current Saudi oil output, and even more important, the vast Saudi oil reserves, are absolutely indispensable to the security and healthy functioning of the world economic order.

If Saudi Arabia were to fall victim to Iraq, if its enormous resources were to pass under Saddam Hussein’s control--even if Saudi oil exports were to be temporarily lost because of Iraqi-instigated war, sabotage or terrorism--the result would be little short of global economic calamity.

An Iraqi conquest would also, of course, mean the end of the House of Saud, with all the privileges enjoyed by the royal family and its estimated 6,000 princes. This may be of little concern to the average Westerner, but it is of considerable moment to King Fahd and his brethren.

Even so, legendary Saudi indecisiveness had held sway until now. Finally, Washington, increasingly impatient with Saudi dithering in the face of an imminent peril, seems to have prevailed--perhaps not a moment too soon. Almost from the moment of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, the American message has been blunt. To delay in inviting in U.S. or other friendly help--like Egyptian army forces--until the enemy was at the gates could be fatal.

Now the Saudis are ready to let in some U.S. war planes to help them safeguard their territory. Thousands of ground troops will provide defense for the U.S. air deployment. Meanwhile, American naval forces in the eastern Mediterranean and Arabian Sea are being augmented; Baghdad and the whole of the Iraqi economic infrastructure will be within range of their carrier planes. Troops from the naval forces of Western countries will be sent to the crisis zone in a true multilateral operation. Rumors were rampant yesterday about the Egyptians getting involved.

Will Saddam Hussein dare to ignore these signs? He has misjudged opponents before, to his country’s great cost. Driven by his grandiose belief that he is destined to lead the Arab world, goaded on by the enormous investment in prestige and ego he has made in his Kuwait venture, he could misjudge again, this time fatally.

Jordan, Libya, the Palestine Liberation Organization and one or two other oddball Arab regimes have hailed his Kuwait aggression as a triumph. Tame crowds in Baghdad have been required to proclaim his greatness. Against this noisy head-turning background, there is the danger that Saddam Hussein will fail to hear and heed the near-universal condemnation of his bullying. He may indeed choose to plunge ahead. If he does, it will be to his own destruction.

The international community, meanwhile, can take some pride in what it is doing. Callous aggression is not being rationalized or explained away. For America, it has been a long time since Washington initiated military action of such a clear, announced, unmistakable nature. The Japanese, the Turks and the Soviets are rising to the occasion. Perhaps only someone as coruscatingly craven as Saddam Hussein could so electrically unite the world.