State May Be Forced to Cut Off Water Delivery to Southland, MWD Says : Drought: District would have to rely almost exclusively on the Colorado River, requiring reductions of supplies to the 27 agencies it serves by 45% to 50%.

SACRAMENTO —  Amid new reports that drought conditions appear worse than expected, Metropolitan Water District officials warned cities Friday that the state may have to cut off all its water deliveries to Southern California by March 1.

MWD General Manager Carl Boronkay said the cutback would force the huge district to rely almost exclusively on water from the Colorado River and require a reduction in deliveries to the 27 agencies it serves by 45% to 50%.

He said the action will reduce the total amount of water available to the district by almost half of normal, but will still supply enough to meet the bare-bones needs of residential users.

Only two weeks ago, the district’s board voted to cut deliveries effective March 1 by 31%, predicting that the cuts might become more severe as dry conditions persisted in this fifth year of drought.

Officials said those worst fears were realized Thursday, when the state Department of Water Resources provided preliminary data on the Sierra snowmelt at a private meeting in Sacramento.

“Our worst-case scenario suddenly got worse,” Boronkay said. “You just couldn’t dream six months ago that it could be like this. It’s an incredible happening. We couldn’t have dreamed as bad a nightmare as this.”

Further MWD cutbacks will undoubtedly set a domino effect in motion by forcing many Southern California communities that implemented rationing based on the 31% cutback to increase mandatory restrictions on water use.

In Los Angeles, where Mayor Tom Bradley signed a rationing law Friday that requires a 10% reduction in water use by March 1 and a 15% cut by May 1, water officials noted that conservation will be critical.

Jerry Gewe, planning engineer for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, said that if MWD’s latest scenario comes true, city residents will have to cut back on their usage at least 20% and maybe as much as 25%.

Depending on how users react to the current rationing plan, Gewe said, the city may not have to order further restrictions. In 1977, during the last severe drought, Los Angeles got water savings of 19% when it ordered residents to cut back by 10%.

He said the city has access to some additional water from underground sources and about 50,000 acre-feet that it stored in Owens Valley reservoirs last summer for “a non-rainy day.”

Word of likely additional cutbacks in San Diego, which relies on the MWD for 95% of its water, was greeted with concern at the San Diego County Water Authority.

“We’ve got a totally different playing field than we had yesterday,” said Paul Downey, spokesman for Mayor Maureen O’Connor. “There are going to be some very difficult decisions to be made within the next week to 10 days as to what lives and what dies, in terms of our landscaping.”

At the Antelope Valley-East Kern Agency, the third-largest customer of the State Water Project water after the MWD and the Kern County Water Agency, officials reacted to the latest water-supply and weather forecasts with resignation.

“There’s no reason for extending anyone’s hopes at this point in time,” said Wallace Spinarski, the agency’s general manager. “There’s nothing in the forecast for the next week that looks like any significant rain. We need everyone to be aware this is a dire and a critical situation.”

To MWD officials, the snowmelt data indicated that so little water would be draining out of the western Sierra into the State Water Project that project administrators would undoubtedly have to cut their water deliveries by 90%. Earlier this month, state officials had predicted that under the harshest of conditions they would probably only have to cut deliveries by 85%.

A cut of 90% would mean MWD would receive about 170,000 acre-feet of water from the state project this year instead of its requested 1.7 million acre-feet. But because MWD has already drawn nearly that much from the state project, Boronkay said the imposition of a 90% cutback would in effect force the state to cut off the spigot to Southern California. An acre-foot is approximately enough water to serve a Los Angeles family of five for 18 months.

Boronkay said he is asking his board to schedule a special meeting, probably March 4, to consider his recommendations for further cutbacks to its customers, including the city of Los Angeles. He said he has not determined how the cutbacks will be apportioned, although he anticipates that agricultural customers will continue to get some water.

At least one MWD board member, Mike Nolan of Burbank, has criticized decisions not to stop agricultural deliveries. He contends that farmers have received a break on water prices over the years in return for agreeing that their deliveries could be “interrupted.”

“I think reality is finally coming home and it’s time MWD apply the administrative code as it is written,” Nolan said. “No more discounts of water for agricultural purposes. Let’s start taking care of people.”

Under the 31% cutback scheme, MWD deliveries for residential uses are cut by 20% and those for agriculture are cut by 50%.

While admitting that the drought picture has worsened with low rainfall and snowpack in February, state officials declined to confirm that they plan to order a 90% reduction to municipal and industrial customers, which include MWD. They have already stopped all water deliveries to their agricultural users.

Larry Mullnix, Department of Water Resources deputy director, said his agency is in the process of reviewing its data and will probably present a recommendation to Gov. Pete Wilson next week. Wilson was in Mexico and unavailable for comment.

“Things are very dismal,” Mullnix said. “We’re still checking our figures out though. This is very, very serious so we want to be sure what we’re doing is correct.”

In a year of normal precipitation, the Metropolitan Water District would use about 2.6 million acre-feet. Boronkay said this year its best hope is to be able to make deliveries of 1.6 million acre-feet and even that will depend on how much water can be supplied by the Colorado River system and a special water bank established by Wilson. The water bank, to be operated by the state, allows certain irrigation districts in Northern California with more abundant supplies to sell to districts more severely affected by the drought.

Times staff writers Linda Roach Monroe and John Chandler contributed to this report.

DROUGHT LOVERS: Some people secretly enjoy the dry spell. B1