Slump to End This Quarter, Study Predicts : Economy: The Conference Board says the GNP, which shrank at a 2.6% annual rate in the first quarter, should grow at a 2.4% rate.

NEW YORK —  The economy will emerge from recession in the current quarter and then grow slowly for the rest of the year, a business research group predicted Wednesday.

The gross national product, which shrank at a 2.6% annual rate in the first quarter, should grow at a 2.4% rate this quarter, the Conference Board said in a revised forecast.

“The most important engines of economic growth--real disposable income and real consumer spending--began to recover in February,” said Gail Fosler, chief economist for the group.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the nation’s GNP, has been in the doldrums since the economy went into recession in July after nearly eight years of growth.

But Fosler said big upward revisions in retail sales figures for February and March “imply that consumer spending was stronger than thought.”

She predicted that consumer spending would rise at an annual rate of 1.5% to 2.5% after inflation for the rest of the year.

The Conference Board projects the GNP will rise at a 2.3% rate in the third quarter and a 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter.

Inflation, which generally moderates during periods of slow growth, will continue to pose a problem for the economy because of low short-term interest rates, Fosler said.

The board projects consumer prices will rise 4.5% this year, compared to 5.4% last year.