NEWS ANALYSIS : Goal of Yugoslav Army Uncertain : Military: Although it is the last vessel of federal power, it offers no one to fill the nation’s leadership vacuum. And it may only be delaying the inevitable.

LJUBLJANA, Slovenia —  With its thunderous assault on tiny Slovenia, the Yugoslav People’s Army has demonstrated a fierce resolve to defend the fractured federation that is the only justification for its existence.

Only by flexing military muscle could the remaining believers in Yugoslavia keep alive even infinitesimal hopes of forcing unity among the rivalrous Balkan peoples.

The 180,000-man army and its mighty arsenal are the last remnants of federal power now that the Yugoslav presidency is paralyzed by an ethnic dispute and the government of Prime Minister Ante Markovic has been greatly discredited. The tentative agreement reportedly reached late Friday may serve to restore the power of the rotating presidency.

The army, dominated by hard-line Serbian Communists, charged in with guns blazing to prove that it still has a mission to protect those who command and support it, even though their authority has disintegrated.

What remained in question after a second day of deadly clashes between federal and Slovenian forces was the ultimate objective of the army if it must destroy Yugoslavia in the course of defending it.

Bombing raids and tank interventions have damaged property and halted trade in Slovenia, undermining the one solvent economy in the crumbling and bankrupt federation.

Moreover, the federal army brass are probably waging a battle against time in their effort to suppress Slovenian independence, in spite of the reported agreement by Slovenia and Croatia to suspend their declarations of independence.

While the officer corps is predominantly Serbian, the rank and file reflects the diversity of Yugoslavia’s ethnic patchwork.

Slovenian President Milan Kucan has recalled the 4,000 Slovenian recruits in the federal army and appealed to other ethnic groups to desert in order to avoid taking part in what he described as an aggressive attempt to occupy a sovereign republic.

Within the first 24 hours of fighting in Slovenia, 112 federal soldiers surrendered to Slovenian troops and another 273 were taken prisoner, according to Slovenian Information Minister Jelko Kacin.

Federal authorities have said little about army casualties suffered in the push to retake Slovenia, probably fearing outbreaks of unrest in the home republics of recruits killed for the sake of a political conflict.

Tens of thousands staged angry demonstrations in the republic of Macedonia last month after a Macedonian recruit was killed in an army confrontation with Croatian nationalists in the Adriatic port of Split. The protests triggered calls for a redeployment of Macedonian recruits away from trouble spots.

As the federation unravels along its ethnic seams there are increasing fears of a military coup d’etat.

But the army high command in Belgrade would be incapable of governing effectively. There is no strong leadership figure--in or out of the army--who could unite the bellicose ethnic groups in a common struggle for economic survival.

Markovic, who drew broad support from Western governments for his wishful encouragement of unity, has long lacked the trust and backing of republic leaders and is now blamed for handing the army a pretext for unleashing a punishing attack on Slovenia.

The federal government Wednesday appealed to the army to secure the borders of Yugoslavia. But air and ground attacks near Ljubljana and on various republic military facilities and airports indicated that the army was grossly exceeding its mandate.

Even the limited order issued by Markovic was rejected by Slovenes, who point out that any decision to call out the army legally rests with the collective presidency.

Yugoslavia has had no head of state or commander of the armed forces since May 15, when the republic of Serbia orchestrated a blockade against Croatia’s Stipe Mesic, who was to have been inaugurated for a year’s term under the federation’s labyrinthine leadership system.

In the absence of clear presidential authority, the high command under the direction of hard-line Communist Gen. Blagoje Adzic has seized the opportunity to exercise power by launching an aggressive campaign to force Slovenia back into the federal fold, Kucan theorized during a talk with reporters before word of the tentative accord was released.

He and other authorities in Ljubljana contend that the army is acting out against a perceived conspiracy by Western countries and the secessionist republics to undermine the federal and Serbian governments in Belgrade.

Kucan deemed those fears “ridiculous” and said they illustrate the vast psychological and political differences separating Western-oriented Slovenia and Croatia from the repressive Communist forces that still hold sway in Yugoslavia’s south.

The harsh military crackdown on Slovenia stunned many in this republic of 2 million, whose history of Hapsburg rule and affluent living standards more easily stirs images of Austria than of the poorer and politically troubled republics with which Slovenia was united for the past 73 years.

What was even more surprising was the grit and determination with which the federal attackers have met resistance by the fledgling Slovenian territorial defense.

The head of the Slovenian forces, Col. Janez Slapar, told reporters this week that the republic can muster a fighting force of about 68,000 but that it has arms for only about 40,000.

While the federal army has 2,000 tanks, nearly 400 fighter planes, 150 helicopters and what is believed to be an impressive stock of missiles, neither Slovenia nor Croatia possesses tanks or combat aircraft.

On the other hand, only about half of the 110,000 army recruits are from the republics of Serbia and Montenegro.

Federal intervention in Croatia would probably be interpreted as support for the Serbian minority, instigating further clashes between Serbs and Croats in the republic of 5 million, where ethnic violence has already claimed 26 lives in less than two months.

The unrest could easily spread to neighboring Bosnia-Hercegovina, a republic of 4 million with an explosive mixture of Muslims, Serbs and Croats.

In both Croatia and Bosnia-Hercegovina, civilians have been arming themselves in preparation for all-out fratricide.

By contrast, few Slovenian civilians have weapons.

The Slovenian militia managed to acquire some anti-tank missiles and used them against several armored vehicles, claiming to have rendered 15 useless.

However, like the Croats, they have no tanks or combat aircraft.