Larry Scenario: Why Agran Could Be a Primary Figure

He stood where Geraldine A. Ferraro and Michael S. Dukakis had stood in 1984 and 1988, the ashes from their torched candidacies long since put in matching urns and scattered at sea.

And yet, here was Larry Agran invoking their memory (and not even under duress) while announcing his own candidacy for President.

Psst, Larry. Don’t mention them again, ever, even if you are just kidding.

Go with the Boris N. Yeltsin reference, which is the comparison Democratic Party County Chairman Howard Adler made. Adler, much more savvy about such things, likened Agran’s fledgling campaign to Yeltsin standing atop a tank in Moscow--both men, he said, “standing up for what they believe in.”

No doubt, Yeltsin could win the New Hampshire Democratic primary.

But can Agran, the once and defeated mayor of Irvine?

Or, will anyone in Iowa buy this man a cup of coffee?

His press secretary said Agran would campaign heavily in both Iowa and New Hampshire primaries in 1992, especially trying to hit every county in Iowa.

Reading our minds, Adler asked the press to “put aside the conventional wisdom, put aside the process” in covering Agran. Implicit in that was a plea to listen to what Agran has to say and not dismiss him before he starts.

Fair enough, but there will be complications at the national level.

The Agran message that sounds so bold and daring in the heart of Orange County conservatism will sound pretty commonplace in Democratic primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire. Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, a rumored presidential candidate, sounded much the same theme a couple weeks ago that Agran did on Thursday and, for my money, did it with more urgency and eloquence.

How is the former mayor of Irvine, Calif., going to steal the media spotlight away from a Bill Clinton or any other Democrat of even semi-national prominence?

Agran fancies himself as a candidate of substance, and he is, but in this day and age that’s the worst label you can put on a guy. So, you ask yourself, who is Larry Agran kidding? Is this some massive ego trip, asking the country to do that which his hometown would not do--elect him to its highest office?

But I come not to bury Agran, but to praise him.

I’ll even suggest a scenario under which it all might come together.

The beauty of New Hampshire and Iowa during their presidential primaries is that they have such a bloated sense of their own importance that the locals will talk to anybody from another state. Tell someone in Iowa that you’re running for President and they’ll invite you over to the house and probably ask you to spend the night.

For that reason, the states are perfect settings for the mystery candidate. Agran would never work if he had to start in Florida or Pennsylvania. But Iowa and New Hampshire are small and the coverage often runs toward the folksy, down-home side. If the primary field isn’t too exciting and if the reporters get bored on those cold Midwestern and New England winter nights and if their editors are clamoring for some logs to throw on the dying fire, somebody will discover Larry Agran.

They’ll find him talking at midnight to a Future Farmers of America chapter in a Cedar Rapids, Iowa, cafe and be smitten by his unwashed liberalism.

Here’s how the newspaper article would begin:

“Larry Agran, the unknown candidate who stuck to his liberal guns while living in one of California’s most conservative counties, is working the Iowa political fields like a seasoned plow horse.”

Well, maybe they can improve on that.

But remember, Eugene J. McCarthy was scoffed at in 1968 and Gary Hart wasn’t given much credence as 1984 dawned, but both established themselves by the time the snow thawed in New Hampshire in the spring.

At this point in the Agran candidacy, I’m afraid this is as non-cynical as I can be about his chances or his motivation.

He’s probably lain awake nights, envisioning just such a scenario. But he probably pictures people being inspired by his message of retooling the defense industry or rebuilding the cities.

Nope. The country’s not interested in that.

Agran’s best chance in ’92 is to catch on as the quirky, oddball candidate--the guy with glasses from Orange County who nobody’s ever heard of.

And if he was really smart, somebody would plant this variation of a tried-and-true nickname on him in the national press: Mayor Moonbeam.

Dana Parsons’ column appears Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. Readers may reach Parsons by writing to him at The Times Orange County Edition, 1375 Sunflower Ave., Costa Mesa, Calif. 92626, or calling (714) 966-7821.