Political Paradox: Latinos Still Face Formidable Odds : Elections: In newly drawn congressional and Assembly districts, they appear to lack the numbers but not the votes.

By most political standards, Jose Galvan would make a pretty good candidate for state Assembly representing the northeast San Fernando Valley.

A longtime Sylmar resident who works as a librarian, Galvan is secretary of the Valley chapter of the Mexican American Political Assn. and a veteran of voter registration drives among local Latinos.

He has run three times for public office in Los Angeles and, though never elected, has acquired wide knowledge of fund raising and campaigning tactics.

And best of all, he is a Latino in an Assembly district where Latinos make up nearly two-thirds of the population.

In fact, Galvan is considering a run in the 39th Assembly District. But to win, he would have to beat a well-entrenched Anglo incumbent, Democrat Richard Katz of Sylmar.

And therein lies a political paradox.

As a result of the state Supreme Court’s recent redrawing of California’s legislative and congressional district lines, two Valley districts--Katz’s Assembly district and the 26th Congressional District seat held by Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Panorama City)--contain solid Latino majorities.

One of the court’s main goals in redrawing the boundaries was to concentrate Latinos and other minorities in certain districts, boosting their political power. Latinos make up 62% of Katz’s district and nearly 53% of Berman’s.

Yet no Latino candidate has formally emerged to challenge Katz or Berman, and many Latino activists believe neither incumbent can be defeated in the near future.

There are several reasons, say Latino activists.

For one thing, levels of Latino voter registration are relatively low, in part because many believe their communities have long been ignored by Anglo politicians.

For example, although Latinos make up more than half the population in Berman’s reconstituted district, only 25% of registered voters are Latino.

Moreover, many Latinos are not U.S. citizens or are younger than 18--and therefore not eligible to vote.

In the case of Katz and Berman, another factor works against would-be Latino challengers: Both incumbents are generally popular among Latinos and viewed as supportive of programs benefiting the poor, blue-collar workers and the elderly--classes that include many Latinos.

Historically, Latinos have been underrepresented in California government despite their large and growing numbers in the population.

Politically active Latinos have argued that the problem is due in large part to periodic redrawing of electoral district boundaries that deliberately fragmented Latino populations, diluting their voting power.

But using lawsuits based on the federal Voting Rights Act, which seeks to increase the voting strength of minorities, Latino strategists have forced changes in electoral lines in California and elsewhere that have concentrated Latino voters and helped put more Latinos in office.

For instance, Gloria Molina in 1990 became the first Latino elected to the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors this century after a successful suit by Latino groups and the U.S. Justice Department that resulted in the formation of a new, Latino-majority district.

Latinos are also hoping to capitalize politically on the recent remapping of California electoral districts by the state Supreme Court. In Los Angeles County alone, the court created six Latino-majority seats in the Assembly, four in Congress and two in the state Senate.

“Latinos who were fragmented in the past felt that their votes didn’t count,” said Arturo Vargas, who coordinated a statewide effort by the Los Angeles-based Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund to redraw the maps in favor of Latinos. “Now that they are concentrated in Latino majority districts, that attitude will change.”

Although the Valley has virtually no Latino elected officials outside the heavily Latino city of San Fernando, Latino strategists have begun voter registration drives and hope to set up candidate-recruitment programs aimed at getting more of their confreres into public office.

For example, two Latino groups--the Mexican American Political Assn. and the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project--recently launched voter registration drives targeted at the Katz and Berman districts, the 20th Senate District and the city of San Fernando, which is 83% Latino.

San Fernando, in fact, is often cited by activists as a model of what happens when Latinos become politically active in a jurisdiction where they make up most of the population.

Latinos constitute 52% of all registered voters in the city, compared to about half that in other Latino-dominated areas. Three of the city’s five elected council members are Latino. An Anglo councilman is retiring this year, and Latino activists hope to capture his council spot.

Still, only 16% of all Latino residents in the city are registered to vote.

Jose Hernandez, a San Fernando councilman who also is chairman of the urban studies program at Cal State Northridge, attributes the situation to the fact that many Latinos in San Fernando are underage or are not U.S. citizens.

“We have a very young population,” he said. “If you look at the census--and this is true throughout Southern California--the median age of Latinos is much lower than the rest of the population.”

According to U.S. census estimates, the median age for Latino women in Los Angeles is 26.6 years, versus 33.5 for all women in the city. For Latino men, it is 25.7 years versus 31.5 for all males.

Hernandez said that although registered Latinos are a fraction of San Fernando’s population, they generally turn out to vote in higher-than-average numbers. While the turnout rate in the rest of Los Angeles County is about 18% in local elections, it is about 25% in San Fernando, he said.

Although they are organizing to take advantage of their greater numbers in Katz’s and Berman’s districts--and hope Latinos will eventually succeed the Anglos--many Latino leaders are generally satisfied with the incumbents’ records in office.

Elected in 1980, Katz is closely involved with local social service agencies in his district that assist many Latinos. Berman, elected in 1982, is known for his role in helping draft a landmark 1985 federal immigration reform law that provided amnesty to undocumented Latinos in the U.S. and allowed them to seek American citizenship.

But some Latinos wonder how much support they can count on from Anglo officeholders on issues that are related mostly to Latinos but highly controversial among other constituents.

One such matter is a recent proposal to allow non-citizens to vote in Los Angeles school board elections, which has sparked a conflict between Latinos and blacks, who view it as an insult to their long struggle for voting rights.

“Given the possible backlash among their constituents,” many Anglo incumbents “haven’t really addressed that issue,” said Edward Guzman, chairman of the Valley chapter of the Mexican American Political Assn.

Even though they have yet to win many public offices in the Valley, Latino leaders argue that their increased numbers in certain districts will force Anglo incumbents to pay more attention to them than ever before.

“In a way, that’s exactly what we want,” said Vargas of MALDEF. “We want to make officials accountable to Latino concerns.”

Latino strategists believe the best way to win office in the Valley is to start at the bottom of the political ladder--seats on city councils and in the Assembly--and then shoot for bigger ones like the state Senate and Congress.

For that reason, they are eyeing the Los Angeles City Council seat of Ernani Bernardi, 81, who is expected to retire rather than seek reelection next year.

The population of Bernardi’s district is more than 62% Latino and is likely to grow when a redrawing of council boundaries is completed this year.

Several local Latino political figures have been mentioned as possible candidates for the slot, including Richard Alarcon, Mayor Tom Bradley’s Valley liaison; Bernardi aide Raymond Magana, and veteran activist Irene Tovar.

Although they may not win any Valley seats this year, Latino political tacticians are certain that in the long run they will.

“You may still hear a lot of people say that Latinos don’t vote,” said Ruben Rodriguez, president of the Latino Coalition for Fair Redistricting for the San Fernando Valley. “The reason they haven’t voted is that we have been excluded from the process.

“But if the Latino community knows they have a fair chance . . . they will register in higher percentages and come out to vote in higher percentages.”