HORSE RACING : Owners Size Up Their Chances Against Arazi in the Derby

To face the French monster, or not to face the French monster. That is the question.

In reality, only a handful of 3-year-olds have performed well enough this spring to merit a starting position in the Kentucky Derby against Arazi. A.P. Indy and Dr Devious certainly belong. So do Wood Memorial winner Devil His Due and Arkansas Derby winner Pine Bluff.

Despite questions concerning his suitability to the 10-furlong distance, Technology’s Florida Derby and Tropical Park Derby victories are credentials enough. Pistols and Roses’ success in the Blue Grass puts him in the frame.

Casual Lies merits consideration and so does Lil E. Tee after winning the Jim Beam and gamely battling Pine Bluff in the Arkansas Derby. Tuesday’s Lexington Stakes may produce a candidate, although Lure, the favorite, has been declared out of Derby consideration. Even with the possible addition of Europeans Thyer and Rokeby, the field, really, should be no larger than about a dozen.

Reality and the Kentucky Derby, however, are mutually exclusive.

Devil His Due established he is genuine with his victory in the Wood Memorial, but trainer Allen Jerkens is non-committal. Jerkens reasons the Derby may be a bit too much to ask of a colt who has run three demanding races in a span of five weeks. Owner Edith LiButti said the Derby decision will be left to Jerkens. “I just love the animals,” she said. “I don’t care about the prestige. I feel very fortunate to have a gifted horse and a very gifted trainer.”

But such conservative, long-sighted logic is not widely shared. Despite the daunting presence of Arazi, A.P. Indy, the most formidable American-trained 3-year-old, and perhaps Devil His Due, the Derby field may flirt with the limit of 20.

Several owners and trainers are about to send no-chance horses to Churchill Downs, a prime example being Snappy Landing. He came out of the Wood with lacerations and bruises on both heels despite having worked with hind bandages, but he’s likely off to Louisville in search of what would be his first win since September, when he won a seven-furlong maiden race at Belmont Park. Owner Fred McNeary wants to run in the Derby.

Agincourt, who was scratched from the Cahill Road Stakes at Aqueduct Saturday and flown to Keeneland for the Lexington, will go from there to Churchill at the direction of owner Robert Perez. Dance Floor has shown convincingly that a mile is about all he wants, but his connections are committed. Besides, rap star Hammer, one of his owners, has six concerts a week scheduled for six consecutive months and the one on Derby eve happens to be in Louisville.

The turnout at Churchill also will include Treekster, Disposal, Conte di Savoya, Ecstatic Ride, Hickman Creek and Sir Pinder, none of whom has done enough to merit even the most whimsical consideration. Other possibilities are John the Bold, Vying Victor, Careful Gesture and Hill Pass, who recently required three bar shoes just to get through a half-mile work.

If Jerkens decides to send Devil His Due to Louisville, the Wood winner would be among the more formidable contenders behind Arazi and A.P. Indy.

“There are reasons to go and reasons not to go,” Jerkens said Sunday. “He’d have a shot. It’s not like he’d be 70-1. (But) he’s accomplished a lot in a short time. We’ll probably decide in a day or two. We’ll have to make up or minds.”