EARTHQUAKE: THE ROAD TO RECOVERY : Reinforcing for the Worst May Be Too Costly Preparedness: State seismic panel says new regulations should emphasize saving lives but not necessarily avoiding interruption of normal workdays.
The head of a state commission charged with strengthening earthquake codes said Saturday that it may not prove financially feasible to protect buildings fully against the strongest earthquakes that could strike the state.
Wilfred Iwan, chairman of the Seismic Safety Commission, said he does not believe the commission’s mandate from Gov. Pete Wilson is to “prepare the codes for the biggest possible earthquake.”
Iwan, a professor of mechanical engineering at Caltech, suggested that this would cost too much. He indicated that the code improvements that the commission will recommend by Sept. 1 would have to focus on protecting lives, but not necessarily on retaining normal workday functions in buildings struck by the most powerful earthquakes possible.
Iwan’s remarks, near the close of three days of hearings at a Van Nuys hotel on the Northridge earthquake, were representative of the moderate tone adopted by members of the advisory commission.
Generally, they appeared to endorse strengthening the codes, but they often expressed awareness of costs and political considerations.
Lloyd S. Cluff, a Pacific Gas & Electric executive who is one of the commission’s 15 members, said it was essential that the group complete its report by Wilson’s Sept. 1 deadline because “this is an election year, and the governor may have only a few months to implement our advice.”
“I’m not predicting Wilson’s defeat,” Cluff quickly added.
Iwan said partisan politics will not affect the commission’s work.
None of the commission’s three members who are elected officials attended the half-day session Saturday. Among the missing was Los Angeles City Councilman Hal Bernson, who represents part of the San Fernando Valley. Staff members said Bernson, who had been present during the first two days of hearings, told them he had a schedule conflict.
The commission members decided unanimously to back legislation offered by Assemblyman Rusty Areias (D-San Jose) to revive a state homeowners insurance fund that was repealed last year for fear it would have insufficient resources to pay off homeowners’ losses.
Areias’ bill would make the coverage mandatory, which it was not after it was adopted in the wake of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The legislation calls for charging homeowners an annual premium ranging from $25 to $75 a year, depending on the seismic risk in their areas. After a $2,000 deductible, the fund would pay homeowners up to $13,000 for quake damage.
Some commissioners noted that if the fund had not acquired sufficient resources by the time a big earthquake hit, the payout would have been prorated according to the money available.
The commission set two more days of hearings at an as yet undetermined site in the Los Angeles area on March 2 and 3, and decided to hire an expert to supervise the project of recommending new seismic codes.
Some commissioners suggested that their report try to assign responsibility for living up to code provisions and quake preparedness rules that exist. They expressed unhappiness with some Los Angeles school and hospital administrators who during the three-day hearing tried to blame others for preparedness failures.
The Northridge temblor was a vertical thrust earthquake generated by a deeply buried and as yet unidentified fault. A commission staff member said this has generated concern at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the agency charged with tsunami warnings, that if a similar fault slipped in so dramatic a fashion in Santa Monica Bay, it could have sent a gigantic wave ashore, with deadly consequences.
Richard McCarthy, senior engineering geologist with the seismic commission, disclosed Saturday that NOAA plans to send a team to Southern California to assess the potential for such an event.
Only small tsunamis have struck Los Angeles-area beaches in history, and up until now the worst potential for large earthquake-generated waves in the state was thought to be along the North Coast in Humboldt and Del Norte counties, where an eventual mammoth earthquake is expected out to sea in the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
McCarthy said it is possible that plans for sea-bottom tsunami alert stations off Alaska, Washington, Oregon and Northern California could be extended to Southern California, although he cautioned that warning stations are not enough. He said there must also be substantial education about the danger, and development of beach evacuation plans.
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