The Next L.A. / Reinventing Our Future : THE ECONOMY : Help Wanted: The Jobs of the Future

What will the economy of the future look like? No one can predict exactly how economic growth patterns will evolve. But, based on past and current trends, it’s possible to project which jobs will grow--or shrink in the years ahead.

* The geography of the economy will be as uneven tomorrow as it is today. A coming boom in multimedia and interactive technology, for instance, could benefit the Hollywood area and the San Fernando Valley. Continued growth in biotech industries could further help the Valley prosper. Development in the Alameda corridor would spur light manufacturing along its route.

* Industries such as entertainment and tourism, which are powerhouses now, stand to become more powerful. Others, such as those dependent on defense spending and commercial construction, may continue to decline.

* Futurist Alvin Toffler believes that many new companies will spring up to help workers do their jobs away from their main office. And he says the region’s airports--and the businesses surrounding them--should thrive as miniaturization of products and new, lightweight manufacturing materials give an advantage to air transport over ocean shipping and rail.

* The North American Free Trade Agreement and growing trade with Asia should spur exports of many kinds and create jobs in and around the Port of Los Angeles. At the same time, new jobs in some industries--from medical technology to information services--will be more evenly dispersed throughout the region.

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INCREASING INDUSTRIES (Growth, in thousands)

‘90 ’97 Aircraft Pilots, Flight Engineers 4.0 4.6 Flight Attendants 7.1 8.5 Biological Scientists 1.6 1.7 Agricultural and Food Scientists .19 .24 Amusement, Recreation Attendants 5.8 6.7 Producers / Directors / Actors 19.3 27.6 Sewing Machine Operators 50.6 64.2 Truck Drivers, Light Manufacturing 37.5 42.2 Water Transportation Workers .89 1.0 Longshore Equipment Operators 2.7 2.9

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DECREASING INDUSTRIES (Shrinkage, in thousands)

‘90 ’97 Motor Vehicles 14.0 10.0 General Merchandise Stores 72.5 65.7 Primary Metals 20.8 18.1 Guided Missiles, Space Vehicles 15.3 7.3

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General occupational 1990 1997 Home Health Care Workers 2,020 2,810 Data Processing Equip. Repairers 2,860 3,470 Medical Assistants 7,930 9,540 Child Care Workers 5,770 6,930 Law Officers, Jailers 5,210 6,060

Source: “Projections of Employment 1990-1997”, 1993 edition; State of California Employment Development Department