Poll Results by Both Sides in Landfill Issue Differ : Ecology: Survey by backers of Weldon Canyon site says 56% of voters would support initiative. Opponents’ research shows only 43% in favor.

Ventura County voters would approve the Weldon Canyon landfill measure by a 2-to-1 landslide, according to a poll released Thursday by project supporters.

But Weldon’s foes have commissioned their own poll, and say their results show the contest is neck-and-neck.

About the only thing the two groups agree on is that there is surprisingly little difference between voters in the east and west county, despite rhetoric on both sides characterizing the fight as a divisive battle between the two areas.

“There is no east versus west conflict in the county over Weldon,” said Robert G. Meadows, president of Decision Research, the polling firm hired by the landfill backers.

The initiative, scheduled for the November ballot, would give landfill supporters the zoning and land-use approvals needed to build the dump. Federal, state and other local agencies would still have to grant permits for it to operate.

Meadows said his poll of 650 likely voters in late July showed that 56% of the voters countywide would favor the initiative. In the eastern portion of the county, 64% would favor the measure, compared to 56% in the west county. The poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points in either direction.

“I’m not really surprised at all,” said Eloise Brown, the Moorpark activist who heads the pro-landfill Ventura Citizens for Environmental Solutions. The group, which paid for the poll, is closely connected to Taconic Resources Inc., the company behind the landfill initiative.

Brown characterized landfill opponents as a small group of not-in-my-back-yard activists who do not represent the county as a whole.

“Over the years there have been an extraordinarily active and vocal group of NIMBYs, while the rest of us who have tolerated what’s happened have been too quiet,” Brown said.

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But a second poll, conducted days later for the Environmental Defense Center in Santa Barbara, produced strikingly different results.

That poll showed 43% of the county’s voters support the measure and 40% are against it. The poll of 400 likely voters, conducted by National Demographic Corp. of Claremont, had a margin of error of 5 percentage points, pollsters say.

In that poll, 42% of west county voters and 45% of east county voters favored the proposal.

“We were bracing ourselves for horrific results,” said John Nava, a leader in the anti-dump movement. “The bottom line is that, in fact, it’s very close.”

That point could be moot if opponents win a legal challenge aimed at knocking the initiative off the ballot. A judge is scheduled to hear arguments on the case Aug. 22, despite pleas from landfill supporters that he wait until after the November election.

Polling experts say a difference in survey results is not particularly surprising when opposing sides are asking the questions.

“They’re basically polling for their side,” said Susan H. Pinkus, assistant director of The Los Angeles Times Poll. “They try to find out which arguments are going to work.”

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The Weldon foes, for instance, asked about alternatives to landfills, as well as questions they could use to develop campaign strategy, Nava said.

The pro-landfill Ventura Citizens group quizzed voters about their perception of the Ojai residents who were instrumental in killing the Weldon Canyon project before it came to the Board of Supervisors last year, said Meadows, a pollster based in Washington, D.C.

Meadows also asked questions pertinent to the two Ventura County supervisor races that will be decided in November. He said he did not know how his clients would use that information, but those elections could change the current anti-Weldon majority on the Board of Supervisors.

Nava charged that the landfill supporters’ poll, released to reporters Thursday morning, was intended primarily for public consumption. The opponents’ poll was released as a response, he said.

“They ran their survey for propaganda purposes,” Nava argued. “They want to use their so-called ‘scientific’ results to stampede undecided voters into their camp.”

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Meadows defended his poll.

“The purpose of the poll is really not so you would have a news release,” he said. “The Ventura Citizens group, they’re interested in knowing what people think and not in fooling themselves. They need to get an honest assessment.”

His workers read the exact wording of the ballot initiative to likely voters at the beginning and again at the end of the questioning--a technique Pinkus said is considered reliable by independent pollsters.

The opponents’ pollsters did not read the initiative or specifically mention Weldon Canyon in a key question, referring instead to “a new landfill to open near Ojai.”

In response, Nava said the opponents’ poll was primarily for internal use and was intended to get a rough gauge of people’s attitudes.

“This isn’t the battle of the polls,” Meadows added. “The voters are going to make this decision.”

What the Surveys Found Supporters and opponents of building a landfill at Weldon Canyon released results of voter surveys Thursday. Here are the results:

Proponents’ question: “To promote recycling and to resolve the problem of solid waste disposal, shall Ventura County allow the building of a solid-waste landfill at Weldon Canyon . . . provided that the landfill meets or exceeds all health and safety requirements and obtains all permits from federal, state and local agencies responsible for maintaining air and water quality and that the disposal fees not exceed the amount set by the county or the cities using the landfill?”

For: 56%

Against: 29%

Undecided: 11%

Voters surveyed: 650

Period of survey: July 22-25

Margin of error: plus or minus 4.5 percentage points

Survey conducted by: Decision Research, Washington

Opponents’ question: “Would you say that you would be more or less inclined to support a measure that would allow a new landfill to open near Ojai.”

For: 43%

Against: 40%

Undecided: 17%

Voters surveyed: 400

Period of survey: July 25-28

Margin of error: plus or minus 5 percentage points

Survey conducted by: National Demographics Corp., Claremont