Wilson Increases Lead Over Brown, Poll Shows : Times Poll: The challenger’s favorability rating drops after she is outspent by the governor on TV advertising.

With less than a month left before Californians go to the polls, incumbent Gov. Pete Wilson has solidified his lead over Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown, the one-time leader in the race whose candidacy is being viewed with increasing skepticism.

Among registered voters, Wilson leads by 8 points, 50%-42%. The margin expands to 13 points among voters considered likely to cast ballots, 54%-41%. When the last Times survey was taken a month ago, Wilson led by 2 points among registered voters and 9 points among likely voters.

Conducted Oct. 8-11, the poll showed that the California political environment is little changed from September. Voters still believe that the economy is in dire straits, and they still consider Republicans only slightly better at handling the state’s problems.

But in the contest for governor, Brown’s image has apparently fallen victim to a relentless drubbing by Wilson in campaign appearances and television commercials. For the first time since she became a fixture in Times polling, Brown’s favorability rating is a net negative, with 42% having an unfavorable view of her to 39% favorable. A month ago, before Wilson began outspending Brown on television, the situation was reversed at 46% positive and 33% negative.

Wilson, meanwhile, remains less than popular, with a 49% unfavorable rating to 47% favorable--virtually unchanged since September. Just 44% of voters approved of the way Wilson is handling his job, unchanged since last month.

“Wilson has not succeeded in making people feel better about himself, the state or the economy,” said Poll Director John Brennan. “The only thing different is that Kathleen Brown is less popular.”

A general dismay about the campaign on the part of the electorate was reflected when respondents were asked whether they were voting for a candidate they liked. Only 37% answered affirmatively, and 59%--three of every five voters--said their candidate was the “lesser of two evils.” That held true for both Brown and Wilson supporters.

Meanwhile, President Clinton’s job approval rating among California voters moved only slightly in the last month to 49%--from 44% in September--a span of time that has been dominated by U.S. intervention in Haiti and along the Kuwaiti border with Iraq. The percentage of registered voters disapproving his handling of the presidency fell from 49% to 46%.

The Times Poll questioned 1,232 registered voters, of whom 821 are considered to be likely voters Nov. 8. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is 3 percentage points in either direction; for likely voters it is 4 points in either direction. Margins of error for smaller subgroups of voters may be larger.

For Brown, who has seen her early and ephemeral lead in polling dissolve as the campaign came into focus, the Times Poll results were almost exclusively negative. She managed to increase her standing notably only among college graduates and those making more than $60,000 annually, while Wilson’s consolidation of support occurred almost across the board.

Among self-described liberals, his support increased by six points to 23%. The governor saw strong improvements among those making less than $20,000, 41% of whom support him compared to 30% a month ago. And among the key bloc of voters aged 45-64, his support rose from 47% to 58%.

Strikingly, Brown lost ground among Democratic women, the one voter group her campaign has expected to have in its pocket. Support for Wilson there rose to 27%, up from 19% in the Times Poll’s September survey. Brown’s level of support dropped three points to 64%.

Wilson’s standing was all the more surprising given the lackluster sentiments of voters about the state that he has led for the past three years.

Overall, nearly two-thirds of registered voters said things in California are running down the wrong track--a statement that generally gives incumbents a shaky perch from which to campaign for reelection. The figure was almost exactly that seen in September and in Times polls conducted since last spring.

Asked whether they believe that the state is in a recession, 84% agreed, the same percentage as in September.

There was a glimmer of hope expressed about the future of California, however. When asked in September whether they thought the California economy would be in better shape three months hence, only 22% of voters said it would. This month, the percentage rose to 27%. Ten percent of registered voters said they thought it would be worse--about the same as September’s 9%--and most people felt that the economy would be the same.

Republicans continued to be considered, by a razor-thin margin of 37% to 33%, the party best equipped to handle the problems facing California. That was similar to the margin seen a month ago.

Poll Director Brennan characterized Wilson’s lead in the race as noteworthy.

“It’s remarkable Wilson is doing this well, given the pessimism in the state and his own lackluster ratings,” he said.

Part of the reason for Wilson’s success in the poll may be the comparative confidence voters place in him to handle the most pressing issues facing the state. Wilson continues to control three of the four most important issues, as defined by voters.

The governor’s recent advertising that sought to connect Kathleen Brown with her brother Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr. in her prospective handling of the criminal justice system has clearly had an impact with the electorate. The ads reminded voters that former Gov. Brown named Rose Elizabeth Bird to the state Supreme Court, from which she voted to overturn scores of death penalty cases.

By a huge 58%-22% margin, voters believe Wilson is best equipped to handle the state’s crime problems. That constitutes a 10-point change from September’s 50%-24% margin.

On the issue most important to voters, the economy, Wilson edged Brown 46-34%, the same margin as last month. But it could not have been good news for Brown, since she has spent the last week hawking her plan to salvage the state’s economy.

On immigration, Wilson holds the cards by 53% to 27%, again about the same margin as September’s 49%-22%. Brown continues to do well as the candidate best suited to handle education, beating Wilson by a solid 20 points, 46%-26%. That remained unchanged from a month ago.

The candidates also split on two markers of personal style. Wilson was described as having the best leadership traits, by a 49%-28% margin that reflected slight slippage on the part of Brown. She was judged the candidate who is more empathetic, by a 43%-29% margin.

The difficulties faced by Brown as she seeks to put together a winning coalition of voters were evident when the poll results were broken down into demographic groups. Campaign strategists generally concede the extremes--liberals to Democrats, conservatives to Republicans--and focus their firepower on the majority of voters who reside in the moderate camps, such as non-liberal Democrats or non-conservative Republicans.

In this poll, Wilson had the support of 37% of non-liberal Democrats, those willing to cross party lines to vote for him. Brown, in contrast, had the support of only 19% of non-conservative Republicans.

Looking at the electorate another way--by registration--Wilson made small gains among Republicans, Democrats and registered independents. Brown lost among independents and had no net gain among Republicans or Democrats.

The Times Poll also probed the leanings of those who said they liked both candidates, and those who disapproved of both candidates. Among the 9% of voters who said they felt favorably about both Wilson and Brown, more than half said they would vote for Wilson. Among the 12% of voters who disliked both, 59% said they would vote for Wilson and 25% would vote for Brown.

One last bit of bad news for Brown: Her opposition to Proposition 187, the anti-illegal immigration initiative, has the potential to hurt her more than help her with voters. Told that Brown opposes the measure, 33% of voters say they are less inclined to support her while just 18% are more inclined.

Wilson, conversely, could benefit from backing Proposition 187. A third of voters are more inclined to support him because of his endorsement while just 20% would oppose him. Wilson continues to draw the support of close to one-third of the state’s Latino voters, which suggests that there has as yet been no backlash against him for his stand.

Contributing to this story was Assistant Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus.

* TOO CLOSE TO CALL: Undecided voters are key to many state contests. A3

How the Poll Was Conducted The Times Poll interviewed 1,641 adults statewide, by telephone, Oct. 8-11. Included in the sample are 1,232 registered voters and 821 likely voters. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform more closely with census figures for sex, race, age and education. Interviewing was conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample and the sample of all registered voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for likely voters it is 4 points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

THE TIMES POLL: Wilson Gaining Over Brown

With less than a month before the election, incumbent Gov. Pete Wilson has solidified his lead over Democratic challenger Kathleen Brown, about whom voters are increasingly negative.

If the election were held today for whom would you vote?

Registered voters Likely voters Kathleen Brown 42% 41% Pete Wilson 50% 54% Someone else 1% 1% Don’t know 7% 4%

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Why are you voting for your candidate: Like him/her: 37% The lesser of two evils: 59% *

How selected demographic groups would vote for governor:

Vote Brown Vote Wilson Whites 37% 55% Latinos 61% 31% Independents 43% 44% Moderates 43% 44% Democratic men 64% 30% Democratic women 64% 27% Republican men 12% 79% Republican women 15% 81%

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Favorable ratings for Wilson

10/94 9/94 Favorable 47% 47% Unfavorable 49% 47% Don’t know 4% 6%

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Favorable ratings for Brown

10/94 9/94 Favorable 39% 46% Unfavorable 42% 33% Don’t know 19% 21%

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How has Pete Wilson’s support for/Kathleen Brown’s opposition to Prop. 187 affected your vote for governor.

Wilson’s support Brown’s opposition More likely to vote for candidate 33% 18% Less likely to vote for candidate 20% 33% No effect 46% 45% Don’t know 1% 4%

NOTE: Not all numbers add to 100% because not all answer categories are displayed.

Source: LA Times polls of California voters