Limited Use Projected for Point Mugu Airport : Transportation: Estimates of commercial passengers for converted facility are much lower in new report.

A new consultant’s report on a proposal to convert the airfield at the Point Mugu Navy base to joint civilian and military use indicates that the number of passengers who might use the facility is only a fraction of original estimates.

The new study summarized Wednesday for the Point Mugu Airfield Joint Use Investigative Committee estimates that only 500,000 to 1.5 million commercial passengers a year would use the airfield.

That compares to another consultant’s estimate of 2.5 million passengers annually by the year 2010. The new study cites an uncertain economy and competition from regional airports for the lower estimate.

The joint use committee signed off on the higher passenger estimate a month ago in declaring that joint use of the Point Mugu field was feasible. Committee members now say they expect aviation specialists from a regional planning agency to analyze the dramatically different figures at a meeting Jan. 25.

Tim Merwin, chief aviation analyst for the Southern California Assn. of Governments, briefed the committee on the new study, but said he is not yet sure which of the estimates is right. SCAG is directing the airport studies and contracted for both passenger reports.

“This is one possible scenario,” Merwin said of the new report. “Frankly, we just got it and we want to study it more. We want to see how the conclusions were reached.”

Merwin also said the new consultant thinks that jetliner service on medium and long-haul routes from the Point Mugu airport would not make sense for many years--until shorter routes are well established. The first consultant was much more optimistic.

While Merwin said he wanted to study the report more fully, he said he endorses many of its conclusions.

“The experts I have talked with have really urged us to back away from building a full-sized facility,” Merwin said. “They recommended that we start small and avoid entangling the airport in debt.”

Turbo-prop commuter air service is currently available at Oxnard Airport through the United and American airline subsidiaries. Merwin said it is not clear how or if those operations would be integrated into the new facility.

Seeking to move the joint-use proposal forward, the committee on Wednesday directed SCAG to find $10,000 to speed up federal regulatory approval of a high-tech satellite navigation system that would allow jetliners at Point Mugu to take off and land over the ocean.

The ocean patterns would keep jets from flying over Camarillo, where opposition to the airport is strongest because of the fear of noise and crashes.

Merwin said that approval of new aircraft navigation systems usually takes many years, but that this high-tech system is moving toward acceptance much faster.

“Most new instrument approach systems take five to eight years to get approval,” he said. “(This system) could be approved for use in about two years.”