Measure R Supporters Figure Big Turnout Will Boost Tax Hike’s Chances

In real estate, it’s location, location, location that determines price. In elections, it’s turnout, turnout, turnout that determines outcome.

The special election on Measure R, the half-cent sales tax increase, is so unusual, however, that there are few good predictors for figuring how many might vote June 27. Right now, there are 1,101,212 registered voters in Orange County. Maybe a lot of them will be thinking about the beach or summer vacation. On the other hand, the bankruptcy has tremendous visibility, everyone in the county would be affected by a sales-tax increase, and a big campaign is starting.

So what’s going to happen to turnout?

“Historically, Orange County votes heavier than other counties,” said Bev Warner, supervisor at the registrar of voters office. Take a look at the 1992 presidential contest. Nearly a million voted here, a 78.9% turnout.

But that holds true only for presidential and gubernatorial years. In a May, 1991, special election, turnout was 17.7%. That vote was for Measure J, a half-cent sales tax increase to raise money for expansion of the county jails. It lost overwhelmingly, 73% to 27%.

Election Turnout

Total % Eligible Contest voters voters November, 1989, Measure M 256,186 22.6 November, 1990* 677,201 62.1 May, 1991 Measure J** 184,889 17.7 November, 1992, presidential 979,024 78.9 November, 1994* 774,009 66.2 June, 1994, primary*** 387,519 33.6

* Included gubernatorial election

** 35th Senate District and half-cent sales tax for jail expansion

*** Included gubernatorial primary

Source: Orange County Registrar of Voters *

The conventional wisdom is that a low turnout in June would hurt the Yes on Measure R side.

“Historically, a larger turnout tends to favor a pro-tax vote,” said UC Irvine social ecology professor Mark Baldassare. “That’s because you are getting beyond the hard-core likely voters who tend to be older and very conservative.”

That view was born out in the two elections over MeasureM, the half-cent transportation sales tax.

In November, 1989, M was alone on the ballot and turnout was woeful: just 22.6%. The measure lost 52.6% to 47.4%. A year later, M was back, but in a general election that included the governor’s race, and turnout blossomed to 62.1%. M redux won 54.8% to 45.2%.

No on Measure R proponents say turnout is irrelevant to their effort to shake up county government by defeating the tax. “We are prepared to wage battle regardless,” said Bruce Whitaker. “For us it plays about the same.... Our support will be widespread.”

That’s not how the Yes forces see it. A good part of their campaign will be to boost the turnout, with a boisterous $2-million to $3-million drive that warns that the good life in Orange County will be a memory unless the gaping bankruptcy wound is swiftly cauterized.

Campaign consultant Stu Mollrich said the Yes on MeasureR side is looking for a turnout “of 36% or higher. That would be good.”

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Tragedy in Oklahoma: The Orange County Democratic Party unanimously adopted a resolution last week in the wake of the Oklahoma City bombing. It asks Americans to “reject stereotypes which reflexively blame” minorities for terrorist acts. The party also reprised President Clinton’s recent tune about the need to temper irresponsible speech, saying Americans, especially those in the spotlight, should “end vitriolic attacks” on the government and its elected leaders. The resolution said such inflammatory rhetoric has “created a climate of hatred and extremism” that “encourages and stimulates mentally disturbed people” like the Oklahoma bombers.

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Trying to undo Measure A: Opponents of a commercial airport at El Toro Marine Corps Air Station are trying to overturn last year’s ballot measure approving the airport.

A group called Taxpayers for Responsible Planning will begin circulating petitions this week to rescind voter approval of the airport. If the group can gather 77,000 signatures, the proposed initiative would be put on the ballot next month.

Taxpayers for Responsible Planning wants voters to require that the county go through the normal planning process to determine the best use for the land at El Toro, said Bert Hack, who co-chairs the opponents. If the Board of Supervisors determines that the best use is an airport, then the initiative asks that the issue be put to a vote of the people. The measure also would require an environmental impact report and full mitigation of any environmental damage, he said.

Measure A, the airport initiative, was approved last November, 51% to 49%.

“The only reason we lost is we didn’t have any money,” said Hack. “We spent $250,000 and they spent five times that and still only squeaked by. What will change is that the bankruptcy situation has caused a real problem for an airport that would cost $2 billion to $2.5 billion.

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Quote of the week: “I do for the state of California what Bob Citron used to do for Orange County.” --State Treasurer Matt Fong to the Comstock Club, a Sacramento business-civic group.He quickly added, “We make money and they didn’t.”

UPCOMING EVENTS

* Wednesday: The Committees of Correspondence will hold its monthly meeting, from 7 to 9:30 p.m., Orange Council Chambers, 300 E. Chapman Ave., Orange. The meeting will focus on tactics, strategies and arguments against Measure R.

* Thursday: The Orange County Republican Party hosts a reception from 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. to thank volunteers and community activists who have pitched in to help the party. The event will be at Ottimo Ristorante Italiano, 27184 Ortega Highway, San Juan Capistrano. Compiled by Times political writer Peter M. Warren Politics ’95 appears every Sunday. Items can be mailed to Politics ‘95, 1375 Sunflower Ave., Costa Mesa, Calif. 92626, or faxed to (714) 966-7711.