Baseball Behind in the Count : The Signs Remain Mixed Amid Low Attendance, but Recent Crowds Bring New Glimmers of Hope

Even as baseball prepares to dust off its showcase with the playing of the All-Stargame next Tuesday in Texas, a residue from the still unresolved labor dispute seems certain to remain.

Without a bargaining agreement guaranteeing completion of this and future seasons, much of the anger and apathy produced by an eight-month strike linger.

Declining attendance continues to affect nearly every franchise, but time seems to have eased some of the hurt.

Approaching the symbolic midpoint of a delayed season, the damage has become tougher to measure.

“I’m cautiously encouraged,” acting Commissioner Bud Selig said of attendance. “I think we’ve stopped the downward spiral.

“I don’t want to be Pollyannaish, because we have a lot of problems and a lot of work to be done, but the trend of the last few weeks is more positive than it was a month ago.

“Let’s see what happens in July and August. But I think the clubs that are in contention, at least, have reason to be optimistic.”

General Manager Sandy Alderson of the Oakland Athletics agreed. He said the strike’s impact has faded a bit in the face of other issues.

“Schools are out. The weather has become better. The pennant races are taking shape, and the passage of time has had a therapeutic effect,” he said.

“We lost star players like Ken Griffey Jr. and Matt Williams [because of injuries], but the performance of Hideo Nomo has transcended Los Angeles and had a big impact on the popularity of the game, as did Eddie Murray going for 3,000 hits. Maybe our Ariel Prieto [the Cuban pitcher who is already with the A’s after having been the fifth player selected in the June draft] can have the same impact as Nomo.

“The situation has improved, and I think we can be reasonably optimistic that it will continue to improve, although it’s still uneven.

“The clubs that have new parks that are attractions in themselves have an advantage. The clubs that are in the race have an advantage. The clubs that have new parks and are also in the race have a big advantage, but that’s the way it is.”

The average attendance as of Wednesday, based on tickets sold--the clubs refuse to reveal no-show totals or the in-house fall-off might appear worse--was down 23% compared to last Aug. 11, when the strike began, and was down 19% through a similar number of 1994 dates.

However, since June 15, the average has risen from 23,295 to 24,343, and the falloff has diminished from 21.6% to that 19%.

It is still a long way from the 30,066 average through a corresponding number of dates last year, but it has gone up more than 1,000 in less than three weeks. It is also back to the levels of the late ‘80s and early ‘90s, levels “we thought then were so outstanding,” Selig said.

The level jumped appreciably in 1993 and ’94 when the Colorado Rockies, playing at 80,000-seat Mile High Stadium, began averaging more than 58,000.

One of the few clubs to avoid a significant fan backlash, the Rockies are now averaging more than 45,600 in 50,000-seat Coors Field.

The Cleveland Indians, spending their second season in Jacobs Field and trying to atone for almost five decades of losing, were the only other club to come out of the gate at near capacity.

However, 10 teams have recorded season attendance highs in this first week of July, and the extended July 4 weekend produced some big crowds--61,292 in Anaheim, 59,203 in Philadelphia, 49,104 in Atlanta, 48,078 in Colorado, 46,560 in Baltimore and 41,713 in Cleveland. Fireworks were on the agenda in most stadiums, but as Selig noted, “Baseball is criticized when we don’t promote, so I would hope we would get credit when we do.”

What have the clubs been bucking in ‘95?

--The strike alienated fans by negating one of the most exciting seasons ever, forced cancellation of the World Series and underscored a public perception of greed on both sides.

--The uncertainty regarding the start of the 1995 season cut deeply into season-ticket sales.

--The anger generated by the 232-day strike was compounded when it failed to produce a settlement, leaving fans reluctant to invest time and money on early-season games. And there still is no guarantee the season won’t be wiped out by another labor dispute.

--The recent NHL and NBA labor problems have fed fan disenchantment, and what Alderson called a latent malaise on the part of many fans in regard to baseball was “crystallized by the strike” and gave those disenchanted fans a reason to stay away “until we get our house in order.”

That malaise may be evidenced by several polls placing the national pastime third or fourth in popularity among the major sports. A recent Harris poll indicated that baseball had lost one-third of its fans since last year, a suspect leap considering only slightly more than 1,000 people were surveyed.

Despite the doom and gloom of the polls:

--Attendance at minor league games is down only 3% from last year’s record 33 million.

--Advertising sales for the All-Star telecast have set a record.

--ESPN ratings have dipped only one-tenth of one rating point.

--ABC and NBC wanted a six-year renewal before ending their partnership in frustration when baseball refused to be strong-armed.

--Fox and others have given baseball reason to believe they will have a new TV deal by Nov. 1.

--The realigned divisions seemed to be producing the kinds of races that will stimulate attendance, keeping more teams involved longer.

However, only a long-term labor agreement will provide the stability and permanence fans seek, Selig and others said.

“An agreement with the players enthusiastically embraced by both sides, and the election of a strong, independent, outside commissioner, will go a long way toward restoring public confidence in the game,” Dodger President Peter O’Malley said.

He added that he was concerned about the unresolved issues facing baseball but said the interest level in the Dodgers was high and had no complaints about Dodger attendance, which, driven by Nomomania, averages 37,056, compared to 41,443 last year.

Richard Brown, president of the Angels, whose average has inched up to 20,444 compared to 24,009 last year, said he was disappointed with the slow response to the team’s performance but understood how fans were alienated by the strike and turned off by the team’s play in previous years.

“The need for [a labor] agreement is a recurring theme in all the letters I receive,” he said. “They all ask the same question: Why should we come back when there’s no guarantee you won’t take the game away from us again? A long-term agreement would be a shot in the arm. The apathy would disappear.”

Baseball will soon open a new marketing department in its New York offices. Many of the successful local promotions will be tried on the national stage.

Selig also recently named a new negotiating committee, but there have been no talks since March 30, no indication that the splintered owners know what they want to take back to the table and no indication they will take a softer line, claiming losses of more than $700 million since the strike began.

Union leader Donald Fehr said the appointment of a business-oriented commissioner is as critical as a bargaining agreement. He was asked if the union carries responsibility for the strike and the damage it has done at the gate.

“We were involved in a difficult negotiation that wasn’t successful and it had an effect,” he said. “I don’t want to fall back on familiar rhetoric by reinvigorating the issues. We’ve got to get back to good-faith bargaining and get the house in order.”

In those cities where attendance has dipped most drastically, the problems go beyond the strike to issues of stadium or demographics or management, or a combination of all of those and more.

A new system, Selig reiterated, is imperative for all the small-revenue cities and a new stadium represents “absolute survival” in many of those cities, including his own Milwaukee. Selig said that franchise relocation “is now an option we’re going to have to look at, as regrettable as I find it.”

In the meantime, the next two months will determine whether baseball’s attendance is on the road back, and everyone would be best served, said Baltimore Oriole owner Peter Angelos, if the media would quit hammering at the faults, quit dredging up the strike.

The criticism has served its purpose, he said. The message has been received. Attendance has been improving--both nationally, he said, and at Camden Yards, where the Orioles are closing in on the sold-out levels of previous seasons--and he is confident “a mood of compromise” will soon produce a bargaining agreement.

“Generally, the public forgives and forgets,” Angelos said. “That’s the usual American way. We can certainly see that in the large consumption of German and Japanese automobiles.

“If we can forgive and forget [World War II], I’m sure we can forgive and forget a baseball strike in which the owners and players didn’t use their best judgment.”

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1995 Attendance

Paid figures through July 4

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Team Dates Total Avg Capacity % Angels 30 613,331 20,444 64,593 32 Baltimore Orioles 31 1,284,165 41,425 48,079 86 Boston Red Sox 33 942,766 28,569 33,871 84 Chicago White Sox 29 659,973 22,758 44,321 51 Cleveland Indians 30 1,133,888 37,796 42,400 89 Detroit Tigers 31 495,423 15,981 52,416 30 Kansas City Royals 31 561,153 18,102 40,625 45 Milwaukee Brewers 32 428,664 13,396 53,192 25 Minnesota Twins 33 487,951 14,786 56,144 26 New York Yankees 28 598,563 21,377 57,545 37 Oakland Athletics 31 532,663 17,183 47,313 36 Seattle Mariners 32 571,087 17,846 59,702 30 Texas Rangers 34 900,482 26,485 43,521 61 Toronto Blue Jays 33 1,295,649 39,262 51,000 77 AL Totals 438 10,505,758 23,986 49,623 48

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Team Dates Total Avg Capacity % Dodgers 33 1,222,847 37,056 56,000 66 Atlanta Braves 33 1,095,690 33,203 52,710 63 Chicago Cubs 31 830,517 26,791 38,765 69 Cincinnati Reds 32 799,011 24,969 52,952 47 Colorado Rockies 31 1,419,497 45,790 50,000 92 Florida Marlins 31 720,459 23,241 47,662 49 Houston Astros 32 580,531 18,142 54,313 33 Montreal Expos 29 573,383 19,772 43,739 45 New York Mets 34 626,146 18,416 55,601 33 Philadelphia Phillies 31 934,859 30,157 62,382 48 Pittsburgh Pirates 26 345,319 13,282 47,972 28 St. Louis Cardinals 35 851,454 24,327 56,627 43 San Diego Padres 34 453,440 13,336 46,510 29 San Francisco Giants 31 486,993 15,709 62,000 25 NL Totals 443 10,940,146 24,696 51,945 48 MLB Totals 881 21,445,904 24,343 50,784 48

1995 Major League Average: 24,343 (23% decline over 1994)