O.C. Airport Demand Rising, Consultant Says

SANTA ANA —  Conflicting with earlier findings, a new report Thursday said that demand for another commercial airport in Orange County is sharply rising, a conclusion that buoyed supporters of a civilian airport at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station.

The report, ordered by county officials considering plans for a new airport, was immediately denounced by critics who called it an attempt to cater to special-interest groups that stand to profit from an airport at El Toro.

The findings come at a critical time and are likely to inflame the dispute over the airport, which has divided the county along North-South lines and has presented the biggest land-use issue in years. Voters go to the polls in March to decide on Measure S, which would block a commercial airport at the base.

Currently, about 46% of passengers coming to or leaving Orange County use neighboring facilities for their aviation needs, according to the report. By 2020, the report warned, 72% of passenger business will be leaving Orange County.

Further, within 24 years local businesses will need to move an annual 1.6 million tons of cargo, the report said. Currently, John Wayne Airport cargo shipments are restricted to about 10,000 tons a year.

The bullish projections about demand for another facility were presented Thursday to the El Toro Airport Citizens Advisory Commission studying future uses for El Toro, once the military leaves as part of a national base-closure program.

“There is a wide range of aviation markets opening up in the county,” said Ronald Ahlfeldt, senior vice president of P&D; Consultants Inc., a planning and engineering firm with an expertise in airports, which did the study. “The growth projections are there, and we do not believe that even a second airport at El Toro could service that demand.”

However, the report drew the predictable response from airport skeptics, who charged that it offered inflated figures to show more of a demand for an airport than really exists.

“This is a facade, it’s always been a facade,” said Bert Hack, co-chairman of Taxpayers for Responsible Planning, which is leading the fight against a commercial airport on the 4,700-acre military base. “It’s chicanery.”

The report comes a year after another draft study, was also ordered by the county, warned that competitive market forces could result in significantly less consumer interest in an international airport at the El Toro base than some projections suggested.

County officials have said the earlier report was incomplete and has been misinterpreted. The new study, they argue, is based on careful scrutiny of economic conditions, expected population growth and regional lifestyle and business trends that increasingly rely on airline service.

Airport supporters, including many businesses and North County residents, say a new facility will reinvigorate the economy and bring with it thousands of jobs. Opponents, many of whom live in South County near the base, fear the noise and traffic an airport could bring.

Some members of the advisory commission called the report a good first step toward determining the best use for El Toro.

“There’s a real need in the long term for increased aviation transportation here in Orange County,” said commissioner and developer George Argyros, who has financed efforts on behalf of converting the base to a commercial airport.

The county should consider itself lucky to have the chance to plan something significant for its future, Argyros said.

“It’s a wonderful opportunity for Orange County, no matter what goes there, airport or no airport,” he said.

County planning officials warn that the P&D; report is still preliminary and does not calculate market demand such as whether American Airlines is interested in flying out of El Toro, or whether local businesses would rely on the base for shipping goods.

The report does not endorse an airport at El Toro, but shows maximum growth projections for aviation demands in the region. The county’s commission is considering both aviation and nonaviation uses for the base.

A potential airport at El Toro would have to carve out a niche for itself in a competitive market in Southern California, which is already serviced by five major airports and may see four new airports being developed.

A lukewarm response to an El Toro airport from businesses and even passengers could dramatically deflate the report’s admittedly high-end projections for the demand in Orange County.

The report noted that John Wayne Airport is expected next year to reach its federally mandated cap of 8.4 million passengers a year.

Those limits, airport supporters say, show the need for a second aviation facility within the county to handle the overflow.

The earlier draft report, done by Leigh Fisher Associates, came up with similar high-end projections for a proposed airport at El Toro. But the report cautioned that factors such as competing regional airports and lack of interest by local business could “materially lower” forecast figures.

County Chief Executive Officer Jan Mittermeier said the latest analysis doesn’t necessarily advocate an airport at El Toro.

“A market assessment simply says what you can do, not what you should do, intend to do or what is the right thing to do,” she said.

Mittermeier said the Leigh Fisher report was faulty and never completed. Unlike the current report, she said, the earlier draft offered no evidence to back up its claims.

“I don’t believe this report contradicts the earlier report,” she said. “The [earlier] report was never really finished and we couldn’t figure out how they got from Point A to Point B.”

Calls to Leigh Fisher were not returned Thursday.

Shortly after that draft report was released, the county moved to form its own base reuse planning authority and hired P&D; for $2.7 million to conduct a new study and provide other consulting work.

The move angered many residents in South County who complained that the county was attempting to stack the data in favor of an airport.

The county’s next step is a campaign to get feedback from residents and businesses about their airport concerns, which will help county officials tailor an airport proposal as part of its reuse options.

“If you’re a resident who thinks cargo [service] may be a good idea, but you’re worried about noisy planes flying overhead at night, we want to know that,” said Courtney Wiercioch, head of governmental affairs and community relations at John Wayne Airport, who is also involved in developing the county’s base-reuse plan.

The military is expected to depart the base by 1999, but El Toro’s future remains unclear.

Voters in November 1994 narrowly endorsed Measure A, which called for a commercial airport at the site. County officials have been moving in that direction but must also come up with a nonaviation alternative if an airport is found to be unfeasible.

Airport foes have succeeded in putting Measure S on the March 26 ballot, which would effectively kill an airport by putting obstacles in its way. Also, the validity of Measure A is being challenged in court and a ruling is expected soon.