Dole Holds On to Lead as Iowans Head to Polls

DES MOINES —  As Iowa voters prepared for tonight’s precinct caucuses--the first full-scale contest in the Republican presidential campaign--the party’s longtime front-runner, Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas, appears to have already passed a major test of his ability as a candidate.

Faced with an assault of unprecedented expense launched by millionaire publisher Steve Forbes--a barrage that only a week ago had many Republicans questioning Dole’s ability to survive--the Senate majority leader has maintained his focus and discipline, something he failed to do in previous contests. Last-minute polls and interviews with voters and campaign strategists here show that Dole has stopped losing ground and Forbes has stopped gaining any.

The evidence also indicates that another candidate, conservative commentator Patrick J. Buchanan is moving up swiftly. “Pat is really kicking butt,” said one of Dole’s own strategists, Marlene Elwell.

With the key battle now for second place behind Dole, either Buchanan or another late bloomer, former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander--even perhaps both--now stands a chance of moving past Forbes in tonight’s balloting.

As for Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, struggling to recover from the defeat Buchanan handed him last week in Louisiana, he is fighting now to stay ahead of former State Department official Alan Keyes in the nine-candidate race.

Of course, a last-minute blunder by one of the candidates or a dramatic increase or decline in the projected turnout of voters tonight could alter these assessments. But so far, three salient points have emerged from the last few weeks of campaigning.

* Dole may yet lose the GOP nomination: He faces a still-serious challenge Feb. 20 in New Hampshire--where Forbes is better positioned--but so far, he has proven himself a durable front-runner.

Though his rivals note that Dole’s once-impressive lead in the polls has dropped significantly, his backers point out that he has withstood a huge assault from Forbes, who spent $4 million here, much of it on negative advertising. Most important, Dole, who in the past has often suffered severely from his own intemperate words, has done and said nothing to damage his own cause.

* The Christian right is a potent force in the GOP presidential process. But its influence is by no means decisive, if only because conservative Christian voters have split their allegiance among several candidates.

* Money counts--for a lot. It took Forbes’ millions to drag Dole down and open up the race, and it took Dole’s ample resources to hit back at Forbes and create doubts about him.

For the future, it is unlikely that any of Dole’s rivals--with the exception of Forbes--has the wherewithal to overcome the front-runner in the massive delegate battles crammed into the first weeks of March. Alexander, in particular, may be short of funds to capitalize on what currently seems to be an upward trend in his support.

Money, along with his much-vaunted experience and seasoning, has clearly helped the 72-year-old Dole bear up under the slings and arrows Forbes fired at him over the airways.

Unlike his behavior in 1988, when he lost the GOP nomination to then-Vice President George Bush, Dole has not allowed the downturn to rattle him. He concentrated his fire on Forbes, lambasting him in television commercials for being inexperienced and untested. Dole, whose native Kansas is Iowa’s neighbor to the west, knew he was culturally in sync with voters here, and he took advantage of that.

“He’s one of us,” said Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad, one of Dole’s key supporters. “The kind of people who support me feel comfortable with Bob Dole. We know he has our values and we know we can count on him.”

As his rivals like to say, Dole’s “three Rs” message--reining in big government, restoring traditional values and reviving American influence abroad--is scarcely the sort of manifesto to persuade citizens to storm the barricades. But Dole stuck with it, and just as important, avoided personalizing the campaign--leaving most of the rough stuff to supporters such as Branstad and, in New Hampshire, Gov. Steve Merrill.

“It’s not Bob Dole versus the other candidates,” Dole liked to tell Iowans. “It is about experience and leadership.”

On Sunday, Dole appeared in Cedar Rapids before one of the most enthusiastic rallies of his campaign: 350 people standing shoulder to shoulder in a high school gymnasium, waiting for the candidate to enter dramatically through a side door flanked by TV camera crews and photographers.

“I believe a lot of the undecided voters who are just now making up their mind are coming our way,” Dole told his supporters from a stage decorated with red, white and blue balloons. “I hope for a fairly substantial victory tomorrow night,” he added. “I’d like to leave Iowa at halftime with a good lead.”

Attacking President Clinton--who reminded the Republicans of what they face in the fall by staging a rally before 10,000 supporters in Des Moines--Dole also defended the Republican congressional agenda against charges that it is harsh and uncaring. “We’re just as sensitive as anybody else” to the disabled, elderly and the vulnerable in society, he declared.

And, as he has done throughout the week, he avoided mention of any of his rivals by name, just needling Forbes obliquely. “I don’t have a quarrel with any of the other candidates. I wish I had the wealth of some,” he said. “Maybe I can be adopted.”

In contrast, Forbes’ performance in recent days has reflected the reality that this is his first campaign. He had made dramatic headway behind his media blitz by trumpeting his flat-tax plan on the stump while his TV commercials bruised his rivals.

But then Dole and others fired back. They claimed that Forbes’ flat tax would rob middle-class families of cherished tax deductions and depicted Forbes as a libertarian on social issues who would support abortion and gay rights. And Forbes wobbled and veered off course.

Suddenly, Forbes--who had been boosting the negative perception of his rivals--saw his own negative ratings rise. A Des Moines Register poll released late last week showed 46% of likely Iowa voters holding negative views of Forbes, compared to 29% for Dole.

Consequently, as Forbes has gone into the last days of the race here accusing opponents of distorting his record and striking out at the Christian Coalition, he has allowed the reputed virtues of his flat tax to almost completely disappear from the campaign debate.

Moreover, Forbes’ criticism of the Christian Coalition, saying its leadership “does not speak for most Christians,” has given Dole the chance to cast himself as the defender of religious conservatives, many of whom have for years held suspicions about Dole’s reliability for their cause. “Politicians like Steve Forbes and Bill Clinton are uncomfortable with Christian conservatives,” Dole charged in a rhetorical shot that did double duty for him.

But Dole has not been alone in appealing to those voters, leaving many conservative Christians hard pressed to choose among the contenders.

“It’s a little difficult to decide whether to vote 100% what you believe in or for someone who can beat Bill Clinton,” said Suzanne Gainer, a 29-year-old mechanical engineer and GOP precinct chairwoman in Davenport. Dole, in her eyes, has the best shot against Clinton and espouses most of the viewpoints she finds important, but her friends and her husband are divided mostly between Buchanan and Keyes.

Gramm probably made the most intensive effort to win over voters like Gainer, and he was still trying as the campaign wound to a close. But his setback in Louisiana diminished his credibility as a presidential candidate, and that has opened the way for Buchanan.

Answering questions on abortion and gay rights on NBC-TV’s “Meet the Press” program Sunday, Buchanan demonstrated his appeal to many Christian conservatives. Asked what he would tell women who believe they have a right to choose abortion, Buchanan replied: “I would say I don’t believe you have a moral right to destroy an unborn child in its womb. That is not part of your body. It’s another human being. It’s created in the image of God.”

On the question of whether homosexuality was a matter of choice or ordained by heredity, Buchanan was similarly without compromise. “While you may not be able to determine your orientation, you can determine your behavior,” he said. “There are many individuals who have proclivities to various kinds of what I would call vices who’ve contained and controlled them by willpower and by training and by constant, repeated denial.”

Times staff writer Henry Chu contributed to this story.

* CALIFORNIA STRAW POLL: Dole wins GOP poll. Buchanan is second, Forbes third. A3

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