Census Bureau Plans for 2000 Head Count

Re “Faster, Wider Census Is in Works, U.S. Says,” Feb. 29: Your article did worse than bury the important news from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, it missed it.

The big news is that the Census Bureau announced its intention to collect data on only 90% of the U.S. population in the 2000 census, and to rely on statistical sampling methods to estimate the remaining information. For the first time in U.S. history, the decennial census--mandated by the Constitution--will aim at less than a total head count of the population.

Critics of the use of statistical sampling for America’s decennial census argue that the Constitution calls for an “actual enumeration.” Several federal court decisions have already approved sample surveys, however, where they merely supplement an actual count (as in the Census Bureau’s new plan). A lawsuit by a coalition of large cities to replace the 1990 census (an acknowledged undercount of some 4 million people) with a sample- based correction is now before the U.S. Supreme Court.

In 1990, only 63% of American households returned their mail-in census forms, down from 85% in 1970, the first year the technique was used. The Census Bureau has had to send temporary enumerators to delinquent households, often several times, with dramatic increases in costs and planning and budget headaches.

In 2000, the Census Bureau plans to use the mail-in forms and enumerators until only 90% of U.S. households have been surveyed. An all-out effort will then be made, but to reach only a 10% statistical sample of the remaining 10% of households.

Those familiar with statistical sampling methods will applaud the Census Bureau’s new plans, at least in general, as a reasonable means to control costs and to avoid the problems of the 1990 census, which missed record numbers of people traditionally difficult to count.

Times readers, whether they understand all of the statistical issues or not, ought to be informed of this historic and important change in a census used to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and to distribute billions of federal tax dollars.

JAMES R. BENIGER

Associate Professor

Annenberg School, USC