Cutthroat Weekend

Is Val Kilmer hotter than Chris O’Donnell? Does John Grisham’s name always guarantee box-office success? Are Michael Douglas fans eager to see the 52-year-old actor play a grizzled 19th century wild-game hunter? Have audiences forgiven Geena Davis and Renny Harlin for the husband-and-wife team’s disastrous last film, “Cutthroat Island”?

For the answers to these questions, which could mean the difference between a smash hit and an ignominious flop, mark Columbus Day weekend on your calendar. That’s when three of the fall’s biggest potential box-office contenders collide in one of the year’s most hotly contested opening weekends. Making their debut Oct. 11 are Universal Pictures’ “The Chamber,” Grisham’s legal drama starring O’Donnell and Gene Hackman; Paramount Pictures’ “The Ghost and the Darkness,” a man vs. lion saga featuring Douglas and Kilmer; and New Line Cinema’s “The Long Kiss Goodnight,” which stars Davis and Samuel L. Jackson in a thriller about an amnesiac suburban mom who discovers she’s really a CIA assassin-for-hire.

(Several other films, most notably “Michael Collins,” the Irish historical drama starring Liam Neeson, also open Oct. 11, but in far fewer theaters than the big three, which will each play on roughly 2,000 screens nationwide.)

It’s a high-stakes showdown--the film equivalent of TV’s Tuesday night duel between “Mad About You” and “Roseanne,” except with a CBS show like “Cybill” also vying for viewers in the same time slot. Unlike TV, new films don’t get a chance to build an audience. The box-office momentum goes to the film that opens No. 1.

“We’re not going into this date aiming to be No. 2 or 3,” vows New Line Chairman Robert Shaye. “We want to be No. 1. ‘Long Kiss Goodnight’ is the biggest-budget film we’ve ever made and we’re totally committed to opening it as big as possible.”

But others see the three-way battle as a prime example of movie industry macho competitiveness gone haywire. “There are many ways to commit hara-kiri in the movie business, but one sure way is to open three big-budget pictures on the same weekend,” says one prominent producer. “I’m sure the studio executives are all huffing and puffing now, saying their movie will open No. 1. But let’s see who’s huffing and puffing after the weekend’s over, because somebody is going to suffer.”

With film production in high gear at most studios, the fall season has become crunch time--Oct. 11 is just one of several weekends crowded with expensive, star-driven films. Between now and Thanksgiving, moviegoers will have a choice between a full menu of star entrees, including movies featuring Bruce Willis, Mel Gibson, Tom Hanks, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Brad Pitt, Robert De Niro, Bill Murray, Barbra Streisand, Bette Midler, Goldie Hawn, Woody Harrelson, Anthony Hopkins--even Chicago Bulls superstar Michael Jordan and Bugs Bunny, who team up as stars of the special-effects comedy “Space Jam.”

In the past, a hot film could build enough momentum with a strong opening weekend to stay in the weekend box-office Top 5 through Christmas. But this year, with so many star-driven films competing for the same audience, fewer films will enjoy the long run into the holidays that produces a fall-season blockbuster.

To cut through the clutter, studio advertising campaigns have become costlier than ever. Even though “Daylight,” Universal’s Sylvester Stallone thriller, doesn’t open until Dec. 6, the studio got a jump start on its rivals by running a 60-second trailer for the film on the Sept. 2 broadcast of Monday Night Football. Early ads build audience awareness, which is what opens movies. But national TV campaigns don’t come cheap. To promote a major studio film this fall, marketing executives will spend an average of $15 million to $17 million on prints and advertising--the bulk of that coming from network TV advertising, which is especially costly in the fall season because of the prime rates networks charge for advertising on their new shows.

The fall movie season is also crunch time for several studios struggling to rebound from a series of summer box-office flops. Among studios feeling the most pressure:

* Sony Pictures: Plagued by a new round of executive turmoil, the snake-bitten studio released another woeful string of expensive losers, led by “Striptease,” “The Fan” and “Multiplicity.” Even its much-touted “The Cable Guy” was the weakest box-office outing from Jim Carrey since he became a star. The studio’s most promising fall contenders are “The People vs. Larry Flynt” and “The Mirror Has Two Faces,” which stars Barbra Streisand (who also directed) and Jeff Bridges.

* MGM/UA: With production slowed by financial uncertainties before its sale earlier this year, the studio floundered with such forgettable fare as “Kingpin,” “Fled” and “House Arrest.” It needs a big boost from its upcoming Bill Murray comedy, “Larger Than Life.”

* Universal Pictures: Aside from “The Nutty Professor,” the studio had poor outings from “Flipper,” “Dragonheart” and “The Frighteners.” It’s looking to rebound with “The Chamber” and “Daylight,” which the studio hopes will revive Stallone’s fading reputation as a domestic action-film star.

* New Line: With reports swirling of a possible sale, it’s nervous time for New Line, where production costs have spiraled to record levels over the past year. The studio hasn’t had a major hit since “Seven,” which opened last November. Made at a cost of $65 million to $70 million, “Long Kiss Goodnight” represents a huge investment for the studio, which paid a record $4 million for the film’s Shane Black script in 1994.

As the only holiday weekend between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, Oct. 11 has emerged as a key fall-season battleground. It offers studios an extra full day of business, especially on the East Coast, and in Canada, which celebrates its Thanksgiving holiday the same weekend. “You have more star power on this date than ever before,” says Rob Friedman, who was recently appointed vice chairman of the Paramount motion picture group after spending 26 years in marketing at Warner Bros. “You have the opportunity to reach a big audience, especially with young males and date-night moviegoers.”

“The Chamber” planted its flag on the date back in April, when the weekend was still sparsely populated. In mid-May, New Line saw early footage of “Long Kiss Goodnight” and decided to move the film up from its original Christmas week slot. Then, in June, Paramount decided to push back “Ghost and the Darkness,” which had been tentatively scheduled as a late-summer film.

For the latter two films, Columbus Day had considerable appeal. As a holiday weekend, it’s perhaps the best fall slot for a male-oriented action film. For four years running, beginning in 1992, Warner Bros. opened either a new Stallone or Steven Seagal film on the date. This year, the studio originally had another Seagal film, “The Glimmer Man,” in that slot. But as the weekend filled up, Warners bumped the film up a week, hoping to protect Seagal, who has lost much of his box-office clout in recent years. (Warners’ Irish historical drama, “Michael Collins,” which stars Liam Neeson, also opens on Oct. 11, but only in five cities, not in general release.)

The traffic jam has created some uncomfortable oppositions. For a brief time this spring, “The Chamber” and “Extreme Measures” were both on the date, which would have split the Gene Hackman audience--the actor stars in both movies. (Columbia Pictures moved “Measures” up to this weekend.) A-list screenwriter William Goldman is still competing against himself: He wrote the scripts for both “The Chamber” and “Ghost and the Darkness.” Reached for comment, a clearly irritated Goldman responded by saying, “This doesn’t make me happy at all,” and abruptly hung up the phone.

If the weekend is now perilously overcrowded, why won’t one of the rival films move to a quieter weekend?

“You tell me where we should go,” groaned Paramount’s Barry London, whose studio is releasing “Ghost and the Darkness.” “There is no quiet weekend.”

A glance at the calendar emphasizes the intense congestion. If one of the Columbus Day films moves up a week, it would do battle against Tom Hanks’ “That Thing You Do!,” an upbeat ‘60s pop-music romp that already has word-of-mouth reputation as a sleeper hit. Going back a week puts them in direct competition with Barry Levinson’s “Sleepers,” a best-selling book adaptation that comes armed with the formidable star power of Brad Pitt and Robert De Niro.

The movie that wins on Oct. 11 will be the one that possesses the most unique “message”--an elusive combination of casting and concept, freshness and familiarity. Key factors include:

Star Power: Stars open movies--that’s why they get paid the big bucks. But as Jim Carrey and Demi Moore proved this summer, stars can only launch a film if they’re playing the role fans want to see them in. Douglas and Kilmer give “Ghost and the Darkness” the most wattage. But marketing experts say Douglas is a star who appeals largely to an older female audience--exactly the sort of moviegoers that would be least likely to seek out a violent adventure film about marauding lions. Kilmer has solid appeal with younger men and women, but his box-office track record is too uneven to rely on.

“It’s strange casting--putting stars who appeal largely to women in a film most women have no interest in seeing,” says one studio marketing chief. “Douglas has always been best playing renegade heroes with a lot of humor and sexuality. But judging from the trailer, there’s not much of that in ‘Ghost.’ ”

Davis has an even bigger hurdle to overcome in “Kiss,” playing an action heroine in a genre that has been singularly inhospitable to female stars. Quite simply: Young men go to action movies, but young men are not Davis fans. But New Line executives insist that the appeal of “Long Kiss” is based on more than action heroics. “Geena is great,” says New Line’s Shaye. “But the feisty relationship between her and Samuel L. Jackson gives the film another dimension.”

(Jackson had a moving death scene in the original version of the film, but test-screening audiences liked his character so much that filmmakers shot a new ending where he survives, giving New Line the option of having him return for a sequel.)

Awareness: In terms of audience familiarity, “The Chamber” has the most proven brand-name concept--it’s a John Grisham legal thriller. “The star of a John Grisham film is John Grisham,” says producer John Davis. “You can bet our trailers say, ‘From John Grisham, the man who brought you “A Time to Kill” and “The Firm.” ’ It’s a big plus for the movie.”

Because its trailer didn’t reach the theaters until Sept. 6, long after its rivals’ trailers had been in the marketplace, “Long Kiss Goodnight” has the weakest audience awareness. New Line executives say the trailer delay was caused by late lab delivery of key special-effects shots. Being last out of the gate could hurt: Says one marketing exec, “You don’t want a big chunk of your potential audience excited about seeing a rival film before you’ve had a chance to make your pitch.”

Baggage: When New Line signed up Harlin and Davis to do “Kiss,” the studio knew they were committed to making “Cutthroat Island” first. It was a double-or-nothing bet. If “Cutthroat” had been a hit, the team would’ve brought a built-in audience to “Kiss.” Instead, they have to overcome considerable audience--and media--skepticism.

In turn, “The Chamber” has the advantage of arriving just 11 weeks after “A Time to Kill,” a crowd-pleasing Grisham hit. Or is 11 weeks a little too soon? Will Grisham fans feel they’ve had enough legal thrills for one year? “I don’t see the downside to it,” says Universal Marketing President Buffy Shutt. “It’s like having a new Grisham novel in the bookstores when a paperback of an older novel comes in. They don’t compete--if anything, the renewed interest probably helps both of them.”