County Overestimated Airport Use, Report Says

SANTA ANA —  Orange County overestimated the demand for passenger service in its plans to convert El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into a commercial airport, according to a draft Southern California Assn. of Governments report.

Airport opponents said Thursday the report raises questions about whether the county exaggerated figures to appease special interests behind the project. But others said the association’s figures still support the need for a second airport in Orange County.

The association’s draft analysis sees regional demand doubling to 150.6 million passengers a year and county demand growing from 7 million annual passengers in 1995 to more than 34 million passengers annually by 2020.

A year ago, the county issued figures showing a greater demand than the association--which supports the El Toro project--now predicts.

According to the county, regional demand would reach 175 million passengers a year and local demand at 38 million annually. Further, the county said up to 55 million passengers a year would use an airport that had no restrictions on size or flights or other operational constraints, said Ron Ahlfeldt, senior vice president of P&D; Consultants Inc., which produced the county’s study.

Ahlfeldt said Thursday he isn’t disturbed that the association envisions fewer passengers.

“Bear in mind we’re talking about 23 years from now,” Ahlfeldt said. “You would expect there to be differences of opinion regarding the number of air passengers in the year 2020.”

Ahlfeldt said both studies show Orange County travelers accounting for similar percentages--roughly 22%--of the total regional demand.

Bill Kogerman, co-chairman of Taxpayers for Responsible Planning, the group leading the fight against an airport at El Toro, said the association’s report shows the county erred.

“I think those figures are still high, but what they are pointing out to us is that the county has no idea what it is doing,” Kogerman said.

He claims the county’s figures are contrived to portray an airport as the best way to reuse the 4,700-acre military facility when it is abandoned in mid-1999. “There’s no question the county is completely off base.”

Tom Naughton, president of the Airport Working Group, made up largely of Newport Beach residents who believe an airport at El Toro will help relieve pressure at John Wayne Airport, said the association’s findings underscore that the county must provide for heavier airport need.

“I don’t have a lot of feel for the extrapolation of numbers like they’re doing, but we’ve all been been around Southern California long enough to see the recent growth,” Naughton said. “I don’t think it’s going to stop. We need another airport.”

Association officials did not return phone calls Thursday seeking comment on the report, which stresses the figures are expected to be finalized over the next several months.

The issue of passenger demand and how it relates to a proposed airport at El Toro is the subject of endless debate in Orange County.

The association’s projections putting demand in Orange County at more than 34 million annual passengers in 2020 assumes both John Wayne and El Toro both operate.

Both sides of the debate agree that passenger demand is increasing, but the disagreement centers on how much growth is expected, and what airport should handle it.

Proponents say building a second airport at El Toro is the answer. The Board of Supervisors last month voted to move forward with plans to build an airport that could serve up to 25 million annual passengers.

But opponents, who fear an airport’s impacts on noise, traffic and home values in South County, want to instead expand John Wayne Airport and other area airports to meet passenger needs.