NATIONAL LEAGUE PREVIEWS
(In order of predicted finish)
WEST
DODGERS
WHO’S NEW: 3B--Todd Zeile, 2B--Wilton Guerrero, INF--Chip Hale, INF--Nelson Liriano.
WHO’S GONE: 3B--Mike Blowers, 2B--Delino DeShields, INF Dave Hansen, 3B--Tim Wallach.
PROJECTED LINEUP: CF--Brett Butler, 2B--Wilton Guerrero, RF--Raul Mondesi, C--Mike Piazza, 1B--Eric Karros, 3B--Zeile, LF--Todd Hollandsworth, SS--Greg Gagne. SP--Ramon Martinez, Hideo Nomo, Ismael Valdes, Pedro Astacio, Chan Ho Park; RP--Todd Worrell, Darren Dreifort, Mark Guthrie, Scott Radinsky, Antonio Osuna, Tom Candiotti.
STRENGTHS: Pitching, pitching and more pitching. The Dodgers had the lowest earned-run average in baseball last season, 3.46. The Braves’ starting rotation is slightly better, but considering the depth of the Dodgers’ bullpen, no one has a deeper and stronger staff. Look for Dreifort to be the team’s top set-up man, grooming for the closer’s role in 1998. The key to the Dodger offense will be Mondesi, batting third this year. If he’s patient at the plate, lives up to his potential, and puts up a monster year, the Dodgers will be in the World Series.
WEAKNESSES: Billy Ashley is the only power hitter off the bench. The entire bench has hit only 46 homers, which is why they will activate Liriano in a week and decide whether to keep Chad Fonville or Chip Hale. Fonville, however, is expected to be Brett Butler’s backup. The good news is that there’s no one in the everyday lineup who will be automatically lifted for a pinch-hitter.
OUTLOOK: The Dodgers will run away with the division title, winning by at least 10 games, and become the first team in franchise history to reach the playoffs in three consecutive years. They expect nothing less than a World Series berth.
*
SAN DIEGO PADRES
WHO’S NEW: 2B--Quilvio Veras, P--Sterling Hitchcock.
WHO’S GONE: P--Scott Sanders, P--Bob Tewksbury, P--Dustin Hermanson, C--Brian Johnson, OF--Chris Gwynn.
PROJECTED LINEUP: 2B--Veras, RF--Tony Gwynn, CF--Steve Finley, 3B--Ken Caminiti, LF--Greg Vaughn, 1B--Wally Joyner, C--John Flaherty, SS--Chris Gomez. SP--Joey Hamilton, Andy Ashby, Sterling Hitchcock, Fernando Valenzuela, Tim Worrell. RP--Trevor Hoffman, Doug Bochtler, Sean Bergman, Dario Veras, Tim Scott.
STRENGTHS: This is the closest-knit team in the league. It lacked the talent of the Dodgers last year, but compensated with camaraderie. MVP Caminiti returns, and of course, the Mighty Gwynn, Tony. He has hit at least .350 in each of the last four years--.358, .394, .368 and .353. His average since 1993 is .367, the highest by any player over a four-year period since Bill Terry in 1929-1932. The Padres also have kept Rickey Henderson, who considerably strengthens their bench.
WEAKNESSES: The rotation is woefully thin. They desperately could use Japanese pitcher Hideki Irabu, but if they trade his rights, they will ask for pitching in return. The Padres are relying heavily on Veras, who has not been the same player since stealing 56 bases in his rookie season of 1995. If he struggles, the Padres could be finished.
OUTLOOK: They still are living off last year’s division title, but unless they pick up another starter and Vaughn plays the way he did in Milwaukee, they will be sitting at the beach in October.
*
COLORADO ROCKIES
WHO’S NEW: C--Kirt Manwaring, P--Jerry DiPoto.
WHO’S GONE: P--Marvin Freeman, P--Bret Saberhagen, P--Armando Reynoso.
PROJECTED LINEUP: 2B--Eric Young, CF--Ellis Burks, LF--Dante Bichette, RF--Larry Walker, 1B--Andres Galarraga, 3B--Vinny Castilla, C--Kurt Manwaring, SS--Walt Weiss. SP--Kevin Ritz, Bill Swift, Mark Thompson, Jamey Wright, Roger Bailey. RP--Bruce Ruffin, Mike Munoz, Darren Holmes, Jeff Reed, Curtis Leskanic.
STRENGTHS: They play 81 games a year at Coors Field. The Rockies became the first team in history to hit more than 200 homers (221) and steal more than 200 bases (201) in the same season. Galarraga led the team with 47 homers and 150 RBIs, Castilla and Burks each hit 40 homers. They had two players--Burks and Bichette--who were 30-30 men. They even had the league’s stolen-base leader in Young (53). Little wonder many baseball insiders believe the Rockies cheat at Coors Field, designing an elaborate system to steal signs.
WEAKNESSES: They have to play 81 games on the road. The trouble is that while they love to torment the opposition by hitting in Coors Field, they also have to pitch there. And when they leave the friendly confines, they stink. The Rockies were 55-28 at Coors field last year, averaging 8.1 runs a game and hitting .343. But they were 28-53 away from home, averaging 3.8 runs and hitting only .228. It’s the largest difference in winning percentage of any National League team this century. Burks (.290) was the only Rocky to hit higher than .260 on the road.
OUTLOOK: The Rockies did nothing to improve their pitching and are relying heavily on Swfit to start 30 games. Don’t know what’s in that Rocky Mountain water, but this is the same guy who pitched only 18 1/3 innings last year and won one game. Look for the same roller-coaster adventure again this year, winding up at around .500.
*
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
WHO’S NEW: CF--Darryl Hamilton, 1B--J.T. Snow, 2B--Jeff Kent, SS--Jose Vizcaino, 3B--Mark Lewis.
WHO’S GONE: 3B--Matt Williams, SS--Shawon Dunston, P--Allen Watson, C--Tom Lampkin.
PROJECTED LINEUP: CF--Hamilton, SS--Vizcaino, RF--Glenallen Hill, LF--Barry Bonds, C--Rick Wilkins, 1B--Snow, 2B--Kent, 3B--Lewis/Bill Mueller. SP--Mark Gardner, Osvaldo Fernandez, Kirk Rueter, William VanLandingham, Shawn Estes. RP--Rod Beck, Julian Tavarez, Jim Poole, Rich DeLucia, Doug Henry.
STRENGTHS: Bonds. The Giants improved in a number of positions, but made the mistake of trading away Williams. Yet, they still have the greatest player in the game in Bonds. Williams was out of the lineup in 141 of Bonds’ 560 starts in his four-year tenure. The Giants were 221-198 (.528) with Bonds and Williams in the lineup and 67-87 (.435) with Williams sidelined. Bonds still hit 42 homers and drove in 129 runs last year. Bonds will be surrounded by more talent this year with the acquisitions of Hamilton, Snow, Kent, and a third-base platoon of Lewis and Mueller. The bullpen also should be improved with fine set-up tandem of Tavarez and Poole for closer Beck.
WEAKNESSES: Surprise, surprise, surprise: pitching. The rotation finished last year with a 46-66 record and 4.70 ERA. Well, guess who’s back this year? Yep, the entire rotation, including ace Gardner, who had a 4.70 ERA.
OUTLOOK: A complete new infield, a new general manager, but the tired, old pitching. Same old results: Last place.
CENTRAL
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
WHO’S NEW: 2B--Delino DeShields, C--Tom Lampkin, P--Lance Painter.
WHO’S GONE: SS--Ozzie Smith, 2B--Luis Alicea.
PROJECTED LINEUP: 2B--DeShields, SS--Royce Clayton, LF--Ron Gant, CF--Brian Jordan, 3B--Gary Gaetti, RF--John Mabry, C--Tom Pagnozzi, 1B--Dmitri Young. SP--Alan Benes, Stottlemyre, Osborne, Mark Petkovsek; RP--Dennis Eckersley, Rick Honeycutt, Tony Fossas, T.J. Mathews.
STRENGTHS: This team is going to drive opposing catchers crazy. They’ve got five players who could steal at least 30 bases: DeShields, Clayton, Ray Lankford, Jordan and Gant. They have four guys who could hit 20 or more home runs: Lankford, Jordan, Gant and Gaetti. And they could drive opposing hitters crazy. Their top four starters of Andy Benes, Alan Benes, Osborne and Stottlemyre can compete with anyone.
WEAKNESSES: Take a walk into this clubhouse and you’d swear you’re at an old-timer’s game. The heart of their bullpen--Eckersley (42), Honeycutt (42) and Fossas (39)--all showed signs of age this spring. It’s difficult to imagine they can hold up. Lankford and Benes will miss the first month recovering from injuries.
OUTLOOK: The Cardinals still are the team to beat, but they’ll have to overcome the reminders of blowing a three-games-to-one lead in the NL championship series to the Atlanta Braves. None of the eight teams that have blown a 3-1 lead in the playoffs has reached the postseason the next year.
*
CINCINNATI REDS
WHO’S NEW: OF--Deion Sanders, P--Kent Mercker, P--Ricky Bones, OF--Ruben Sierra, P--Joey Eischen.
WHO’S GONE: OF--Eric Davis, OF--Thomas Howard, OF--Kevin Mitchell, P--Mark Portugal, P--Tim Pugh, P--Lee Smith.
PROJECTED LINEUP: CF--Deion Sanders, 1B--Hal Morris, SS--Barry Larkin, LF--Sierra, RF--Reggie Sanders, 3B--Willie Greene, 2B--Bret Boone, C--Eddie Taubensee/Joe Oliver. SP--John Smiley, Pete Schourek, Mike Morgan, Dave Burba, Mercker; RP--Jeff Brantley, Hector Carrasco, Jeff Shaw, Ricky Bones.
STRENGTHS: The biggest reason for optimism is that owner Marge Schott is out of the picture and remains suspended. They once again will have great speed, great defense and a solid bullpen. Deion Sanders will uplift the entire team. The biggest mystery is third baseman Greene. He is predicting he will provide 30 homers and 125 RBIs. If that happens, the Reds will be in the playoffs.
WEAKNESSES: The starting pitching could be a mess. Schourek is recovering from elbow surgery. Mercker still needs to prove that last year was an aberration. Morgan needs to show that he can go an entire season. If the Reds are to have a shot, they need Reggie Sanders to return to his ’95 form when he hit 28 homers with 99 RBIs instead of the 14 homers and 33 RBIs he produced a year ago.
OUTLOOK: This team is the biggest mystery in the league. It could win the division title or it could fall flat on its face. Pencil the Reds in for second, but don’t use ink.
*
HOUSTON ASTROS
WHO’S NEW: M--Larry Dierker, RF--Bob Abreu, SS--Pat Listach, OF--Thomas Howard, OF--Luis Gonzalez, P--Sid Fernandez, C--Brad Ausmus, P--C.J. Nitkowski.
WHO’S GONE: M--Terry Collins, OF--Brian Hunter, OF--John Cangelosi, SS--Andujar Cedeno, P--Danny Darwin, P--Doug Drabek, C--Kirt Manwaring, P--Xavier Hernandez, P--Doug Brocail.
PROJECTED LINEUP: 2B--Craig Biggio, SS--Listach, 1B--Jeff Bagwell, CF--Derek Bell, LF--Gonzalez, 3B--Sean Berry, RF--Abreu, C--Ausmus. SP--Mike Hampton, Shane Reynolds, Darryl Kile, Fernandez, Donne Wall. RP--Billy Wagner, John Hudek, Jose Lima, Mark Small.
STRENGTHS: The top of the lineup can be as dangerous as any in the league. The Astros scored a franchise-record 753 runs last season and could even be stronger this year with the acquisition of prized rookie Abreu and Gonzalez. The bullpen also figures to be formidable with a sound Hudek to team up with closer Wagner.
WEAKNESSES: Dierker’s experience is sitting in a broadcast booth. He has never managed a game in his life, and will see if his personality will be the right elixer for a team that fell apart under Collins. Dierker also becomes the sixth man to manage a team for which he recorded 100 or more pitching victories. The last was Bucky Walters of the Reds, who managed in 1948-49. None of the previous five led his team to the playoffs.
OUTLOOK: The clubhouse mood is the most relaxed it has been since Collins’ reign, but not even comaraderie can help this shaky pitching staff.
*
CHICAGO CUBS
WHO’S NEW: SS--Shawon Dunston, 3B--Kevin Orie, P--Mel Rojas, P--Kevin Tapani, P--Terry Mulholland.
WHO’S GONE: P--Jim Bullinger, P--Jaime Navarro, OF--Luis Gonzalez, OF--Scott Bullett.
PROJECTED LINEUP: CF--Brian McRae, 2B--Ryne Sandberg, 1B--Mark Grace, RF--Sammy Sosa, LF--Doug Glanville, SS--Dunston, 3B--Orie, C--Scott Servais. SP--Mulholland, Steve Trachsel, Frank Castillo, Kevin Foster, Tapani. RP--Rojas, Turk Wendell, Bob Patterson, Terry Adams.
STRENGTHS: The Cubs continue to say they have the finest bullpen in the league. Somone needs to tell them the Doders still are in the league. But it is much improved from a year ago, when the team lost 34 games by one run and the bullpen blew 17 saves in 51 opportunities. Optimism rests with Rojas, who had 24 saves and an 0.96 ERA after the All-Star break for the Montreal Expos. Rojas also will be flanked by top relievers Patterson and Wendell and Adams as middle man.
WEAKNESSES: They have a lot of No. 3 and No. 4 starters, but no ace. When your opening-day starter is Mulholland, you’ve got problems. It gets worse with Trachsel and Castillo. They also once again will count on another guy to try to fill the vacancy at third base left by Ron Santo in 1973. This year’s candidate if Orie, who becomes the 77th Cub third baseman since Santo’s departure.
OUTLOOK: They’ll make things interesting, but by September will once again be talking about next year.
*
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
WHO’S NEW: SS--Kevin Elster, 3B--Joe Randa, P--Jose Silva, P--Jeff Granger.
WHO’S GONE: SS--Jay Bell, 2B--Carlos Garcia, 1B--Jeff King, 3B--Charlie Hayes, OF--Orlando Merced, P--Dan Plesac, P--Dan Micelli, INF--Nelson Liriano.
PROJECTED LINEUP: 2B--Tony Womack, CF--Jermaine Allensworth, LF--Al Martin, 1B--Mark Johnson, SS--Elster, C--Jason Kendall, RF--Midre Cummings, 3B--Randa. SP--Jon Lieber, Jason Schmidt, Esteban Loaiza, Francisco Cordova, Steve Cooke. RP--John Ericks, Rich Loiselle, Jeff Granger, Ken Ryan.
STRENGTHS --They don’t have the 10-run rule in major league baseball. The Pirates will be permitted to play all nine innings. The entire starting rotation, with no one over 27, is young enough to be carded at bars.
WEAKNESSES: The starters are so young, and maybe so bad, that they combined for only 21 victories in the big leagues last year. Lieber, the opening-day starter, was the top winner with nine victories. Their lineup is so weak that it combined for 71 homers last year.
OUTLOOK: Take a good look at these guys. In a few years, they’ll be playing in Charlotte or Northern Virginia.
EAST
FLORIDA MARLINS
WHO’S NEW: OF--Moises Alou, 3B--Bobby Bonilla, P--Alex Fernandez, 2B--Luis Castillo, OF--Jim Eisenreich, OF--John Cangelosi, OF--Cliff Floyd, C--Gregg Zaun.
WHO’S GONE: 2B--Quilvio Veras, OF--Andre Dawson, 3B--Terry Pendleton, P--John Burkett, OF--Joe Orsulak.
PROJECTED LINEUP: 2B--Castillo, SS--Edgar Renteria, RF--Gary Sheffield, 3B--Bonilla, LF--Alou, CF--Devon White, 1B--Jeff Conine, C--Charles Johnson. SP--Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Alex Fernandez, Pat Rapp, Tony Saunders. RP--Robb Nen, Dennis Cook, Felix Heredia.
STRENGTHS: The Marlins showed off their talent all spring by posting the best Grapefruit League record in baseball history. The Marlins, who spent $89 million in the off-season, are loaded. Their top three starting pitchers--Fernandez, Brown and Leiter--are second only to the Braves’. Their defense up the middle is superb, representing nine Gold Glove awards.
WEAKNESSES: Bonilla looks horrible defensively. He still can hit but appears awkward and confused at third. The Marlins still aren’t sure whether rookie Castillo can be an effective leadoff hitter, and some in the organization question his speed.
OUTLOOK: The Marlins spent their money wisely and showed in the spring that the spending probably will pay off. They may be in a dogfight with the Braves for the division title, but it would be a shocker if they don’t make the playoffs.
*
ATLANTA BRAVES
WHO’S NEW: CF--Kenny Lofton, OF--Michael Tucker, INF--Keith Lockhart, P--Alan Embree, OF--Danny Bautista.
WHO’S GONE: RF--David Justice, CF--Marquis Grissom, OF--Jermaine Dye, P--Steve Avery, P--Greg McMichael, OF--Dwight Smith.
PROJECTED LINEUP: CF--Lofton, 2B--Mark Lemke, 3B--Chipper Jones, 1B--McGriff, RF--Anruw Jones, LF--Ryan Klesko, C--Javy Lopez, SS--Jeff Blauser. SP--Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Denny Neagle, Terrell Wade; RP--Mark Wohlers, Mike Bielecki, Alan Embree, Brad Clontz.
STRENGTHS: They have shaken up the entire team the last few days, but the Braves still have the best starting rotation in baseball. Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz and Neagle are capable of winning 80 games among them. Wohlers remains perhaps the best closer in the game.
WEAKNESSES: The clubhouse is in turmoil after popular outfielders Justice and Grissom were traded. Suddenly, the Braves are vulnerable. They received Lofton and middle reliever Embree in return from the Cleveland Indians, but to save money, they have greatly weakened themselves. Fred McGriff no longer has anyone in the lineup to protect him, and his numbers should diminish. They also may be making a huge mistake by counting on Andruw Jones, 19, who homered his first two at-bats in the World Series but still appears overmatched by big league pitching.
OUTLOOK: The Braves appeared to be the team to beat, representing the NL in four of the last five World Series, but could be in trouble after trading away Grissom and Justice. Lofton should help, but he still has to learn the league all over again. They may have to take the wild-card route to make the playoffs this year.
*
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
WHO’S NEW: OF--Danny Tartabull, 1B--Rico Brogna, P--Mark Leiter, P--Mark Portugal, C--Mark Parent, INF--Rex Hudler.
WHO’S GONE: OF--Jim Eisenreich, P--Sid Fernandez, C--Benito Santiago, P--Russ Springer.
PROJECTED LINEUP: 2B--Mickey Morandini, SS--Kevin Stocker, LF--Gregg Jefferies, RF--Tartabull, 1B--Brogna, 3B--Scott Rolen, C--Mike Lieberthal, CF--Wendell Magee Jr. SP--Curt Schilling, Calvin Maduro, Portugal, Leiter, Tyler Green; RP--Ricky Bottalico, Ken Ryan, Mimbs, Jerry Spradlin..
STRENGTHS: The Phillies actually don’t have a bad staff. If they can find an insurance company to insure Shilling’s three-year, $16.25-million contract, they’ll keep their ace. Portugal and Leiter can cause problems to teams, and Ryan and Bottalico can protect the few leads that are handed to them.
WEAKNESSES: Tartabull is the only power hitter in the lineup, and he must make the transition to the National League after spending his career in the American League.
OUTLOOK: Keep an eye on Rolen, since the Phillies will be ugly to watch. No Phillie has won the rookie-of-the-year award since 1964, and Rolen could end the streak.
*
MONTREAL EXPOS
WHO’S NEW: OF--Vladamir Guerrero, P--Jim Bullinger, P--Dustin Hermanson, OF--Joe Orsulak, P--Jeff Juden, C--Chris Widger.
WHO’S GONE: OF--Moises Alou, P--Jeff Fassero, P--Mel Rojas, OF--Cliff Floyd, C--Tim Speher, C--Lenny Webster, P--Tim Scott, INF--Dave Silvestri, P--Kirk Rueter.
PROJECTED LINEUP: SS--Mark Grudzielanek, 2B--Mike Lansing, CF--Rondell White, LF--Henry Rodriguez, 1B--David Segui, RF--Guerrero, C--Darrin Fletcher, 3B--Shane Andrews. SP--Pedro Martinez, Rheal Cormier, Jim Bullinger, Jeff Juden, Matt Wagner. RP--Ugueth Urbina, Dave Veres, Barry Manuel, Lee Smith.
STRENGTHS: Nice city. Shortstop Grudzielanek and second baseman Lansing are the most underrated double-play combination in baseball. Guerrero, 21, the younger brother of Dodger second baseman Wilton Guerrero, is another threat to the Dodgers’ hold on rookie of the year. Manager Felipe Alou says Guerrero is the best prospect he has ever seen. And Martinez remains one of the nastiest pitchers in the game.
WEAKNESSES: The Expos, in their yearly cost-cutting measure, lost the heart of their team with Alou, Fassero and Rojas. The pitching is in such disarray that Jim Bullinger will be their opening-day starter. And if they didn’t have enough woes, Martinez will open the first week of the season on the suspended list becuase of a September brawl.
OUTLOOK: Same old sorry story. No money. No players. No championship.
*
NEW YORK METS
WHO’S NEW: 1B--John Olerud, P--Armando Reynoso, P--Greg McMichael.
WHO’S GONE: 1B--Rico Brogna, P--Jerry DiPoto, P--Doug Henry.
PROJECTED LINEUP: CF--Lance Johnson, 1B--Olerud, LF--Bernard Gilkey, C--Todd Hundley, 3B--Butch Huskey, 2B--Carlos Baerga, RF--Alex Ochoa, SS--Rey Ordonez. SP--Pete Harnisch, Mark Clark, Bobby Jones, Dave Mlicki, Juan Acevedo. RP--John Franco, Dave Mlicki, Ricardo Jordan.
STRENGTHS: Plenty of good restaurants in the city. Bars stay open late. Plenty of memories from their 1986 World Series championship. And, yes, Hundley, Johnson and Gilkey.
WEAKNESSES: Where do we start? The Mets have gone six years without a winning record--the longest streak in the major leagues. They are so banged up that they have no prayer of winning this year. Their much-heralded pitching trio of Bill Pulsipher, Jason Isringhausen and Paul Wilson will all miss the start of the season.
OUTLOOK: Someone is going to have to pay the price for this team’s failures. Fellow general managers already are predicting that Joe McIlvaine, executive vice president, will be the first general manager fired this season.
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