Locally, Many Chinese Upbeat on Hong Kong

Calvin Pan, a West Covina computer specialist, is no fan of communism and has no interest in ever visiting mainland China.

Despite his indifference, even hostility, toward the home of his ancestors, however, this Chinese immigrant shares the mainland’s desire to bring former territories Hong Kong and his native Taiwan back into the Chinese fold.

That’s why Pan, despite his worries about Hong Kong’s future, supports the return of the British colony to China on July 1. And that’s why he hopes that someday the fierce political rivalry that has separated Taiwan from China will be peacefully resolved so the two regions can live as one Chinese community.

“I think Taiwan is a part of China, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Taiwan should return to China now,” said Pan, 39, who came to the U.S. in 1984 to attend school.

Pan’s idea of a Greater China--united by culture and history--is shared by many ethnic Chinese who call Southern California home, according to a recent survey conducted by the Los Angeles Times in conjunction with the Hong Kong Transition Project, a joint effort of half a dozen Pacific Rim universities. Although the poll showed that many Chinese in Southern California are critical of the government of China, nearly half believe that the best future for Hong Kong is to return to China under the “one country, two systems” policy finalized in 1984, with just 14% believing that Hong Kong should remain a British colony and 19% advocating independence.

Those sentiments are even stronger in Hong Kong, where 53% of those polled said Hong Kong should join China, 15% wanted to remain a British colony and 17% supported independence.

When asked how they felt about the upcoming transfer of sovereignty, nearly half of those polled in the United States voiced optimism, compared with 60% in Hong Kong.

The Times’ survey of 773 ethnic Chinese in Southern California was conducted last month. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Hong Kong Transition Project poll of 1,125 Hong Kong residents was conducted May 28 to June 4, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

More Optimistic

Michael DeGolyer, director of the Hong Kong Transition Project, said he is not surprised that those living in Hong Kong were more optimistic than their U.S. counterparts, whose numbers include many who fled the Communists at least once and in some cases several times.

Since DeGolyer began polling in 1993, Hong Kong residents have slowly grown more accepting of their arranged marriage with the motherland, he said.

But he said he believes that the increase in those supporting reunification with China reflects as much a sense of resignation as an upsurge in last-minute patriotic zeal.

“At most, one out of three feels properly enthusiastic, patriotic with any depth,” he said. “But there is a lot of soft support for it. People think: ‘Well, Hong Kong is a part of China. And after all, I’ve got a foreign passport.’ ”

This Times/HKTP survey illustrated the diversity of opinion within the estimated 30-million-strong Chinese diaspora.

In the United States, the strength of commitment to the concept of a Greater China, and whether it stemmed from national pride, cultural attachment or pragmatism, varied widely depending on whether the respondents were born and raised in mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong or the United States.

United China

In general, those born on the mainland voiced the strongest support for the concept of a united China, while those born in the United States, who tended to be younger, had the least affection for this notion.

For example, when asked what they would do if they could control history, 75% of the mainland-born immigrants said Hong Kong should return to China, while only 43% of the Taiwan-born, 44% of the Hong Kong-born and 31% of the U.S.-born responded that way.

James Tong, vice chairman of the political science department at UCLA, said it makes sense that ethnic Chinese in Southern California share a cultural affinity for things Chinese while reflecting the political viewpoints of their countries of birth.

Although the Chinese have a long history in this country, dating to the mid-1800s when they were first recruited as cheap labor, they are also a relatively new community because of an influx of immigrants over the last three decades. Of those polled, 79% said they speak Chinese at home.

“For those people in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, since they have lived under three different regimes, the cultural identity remains strong, whereas the political identity with one Greater China is still quite weak,” Tong said.

But members of Southern California’s Chinese community--whether they were born in Monterey Park, Shanghai or Taipei--also share a pride that reflects China’s increased global stature, from its double-digit economic growth to the popularity of its art, fashion and food.

“During the 19th century and the first half of the 20th century, China has been really weak politically and militarily, and there was a large feeling of disillusionment and frustration,” said Cindy Fan, a UCLA professor of geography. “What has happened after the 1970s [in China] has injected hope into ethnic Chinese everywhere in the world.”

Against that backdrop, Hong Kong’s return is viewed by many as the only way to correct a historical injustice in which Britain wrested the territory from China by force, launching 155 years of humiliation.

“We were originally from China, a part of China, and it is time to go back into their hands,” said David Lau, a fourth-year business student from Hong Kong now attending USC.

But Lau’s confidence that Hong Kong’s dramatic economic achievements will continue after it becomes a special administrative region of China is tempered by his worry that the Communists will take away some of the personal freedoms he enjoyed as a child.

“China, if they want us to be good, should not interfere,” he said, speaking in a follow-up interview after the survey. “They are Communist. We are capitalist.”

Those feelings were echoed by others in the survey, who remained hopeful that Hong Kong’s economy will continue to flourish but expressed far greater concern that personal and political freedoms in that vibrant capitalist enclave will suffer and that corruption and crime will grow.

Kay Chen, a Chino Hills substitute teacher, said she fears that the Chinese government won’t be able to keep its hands off Hong Kong’s business, creating a less open environment for political dissent and a free press.

The mainland Chinese immigrant, whose family came to the United States 15 years ago, said she has already seen signs that the Chinese-language press in Hong Kong is practicing self-censorship.

“We don’t read a lot of very open-minded articles in Chinese magazines,” she said. “They seem to be very cautious.”

When asked to look into their crystal balls, 42% of those polled in Southern California’s Chinese community predicted that China will look more like Hong Kong in 10 years. Just 23% expected Hong Kong to look more like China, and 23% said they were unsure. (In Hong Kong, that trend was even more evident: 59% said they thought China will look more like Hong Kong.)

Ken Soo Hoo, a 39-year-old sales engineer, said he believes that China’s leaders will uphold their agreement to give Hong Kong its independence for at least 50 years because it is such an important gateway for mainland trade. He said he also believes that the economic reforms launched in the world’s largest Communist country will accelerate, helping close the gap between the two Chinese territories.

“The image in the West of Asia is very positive,” said the Hong Kong native, whose family left the colony in the 1960s. “And they [the Chinese] look to the West for where they are headed. As they continue to grow economically, all these things make it harder and harder for the grass roots to remain communistic.”

Disputed Territory

This division between China, the culture, and China, the Communist regime, emerged during discussions of Taiwan, a disputed territory whose Nationalist Party leaders have technically been at war with the mainland since 1949, when they fled the Communist takeover.

On this controversial issue, more than half of those polled in Southern California said they consider Taiwan part of China now. Only 17% said Taiwan should remain the way it is today--existing in an international no man’s land--and even fewer, just 15%, advocated independence for the prosperous island.

That question was not even asked by the Hong Kong pollster because DeGolyer said the question of Taiwan’s relationship to the mainland is so “provocative” that he feared people would hang up on his poll-takers. He pointed out that it is a crime in Hong Kong to advocate the independence of Taiwan.

“You have to adjust to the cultural sensitivities,” he said. “And one of the very sensitive issues is the unity or disunity of China.”

It appears, however, that many of those polled in the United States who labeled Taiwan a part of China were not necessarily advocating reunification, at least while the mainland is under Communist rule. Instead, they were reflecting a belief that Taiwan is part of a Greater China united by culture rather than ideology.

“Personally, I feel Taiwan is a part of China,” said Larry Wong, 40, a medical professional from Huntington Beach whose parents came to the United States from China in the 1920s. “But they’re a democratic society, and China is a communistic society. They’re the same Chinese people. But not in the political sense.”

Although they identified Taiwan as part of a Greater China, 56% of those polled also said the United States should establish diplomatic relations with the island’s leaders, which would give it the status of an independent country and be a barrier to reunification. Only 21% opposed this move.

Stanley Rosen, a China specialist at USC, said this seeming contradiction probably reflects a struggle between nationalism and pragmatism.

“It seems to me you have two competing values here,” he said. “One is this nationalistic impulse . . . to have China as a world power. And one way would be to combine the mainland with Taiwan under some kind of democratic form. . . . Then you have a lot of people who are very concerned about the circumstances under which reunification would take place.”

Proud but Sad

Marilee Lin, a 32-year-old fourth-generation Chinese American, counts herself among those who are cultural patriots and political opponents of modern China.

Lin, a New England native who moved to Ojai several years ago with her husband to teach private school, is proud of her Chinese heritage and the traditional values that have been handed down in her family.

But she said she is saddened by the authoritarian attitudes of China’s Communist leaders, and she called the government’s one-child policy, which has led some parents to choose to abandon their baby girls, a “huge human rights issue.”

Lin acknowledged that her views are colored by the fact that she has felt the heavy hand of China’s bureaucrats, having been denied a request to adopt a baby girl because she was too young.

“I’d like to feel proud [about being Chinese], but more often than not I feel frustrated and sad,” she said. “Why is it that such a great people, such a great culture, sometimes seems on such a self-destructive bent?”

Susan Pinkus, Times Poll director, contributed to this report.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Views on the Hand-Over

With just two weeks to go before the historic hand-over of Hong Kong to China, the Los Angeles Times teamed up with the Hong Kong Transition Project to compare attitudes of Chinese living in Southern California and residents of Hong Kong about this momentous event. The poll shows that Hong Kong residents are more optimistic about the hand-over and the future economic and political performances of their country than their Chinese counterparts in Southern California.

Q: What do you think is the American public’s impression of China?

Hong Kong residents

Favorable: 12%

Neutral: 11%

Unfavorable: 51%

Don’t Know: 26%

*

So. Calif. residents:

Favorable: 29%

Neutral: 13%

Unfavorable: 40%

Don’t Know: 18%

*

Southern California respondents born and raised in...

...China

Favorable: 24%

Neutral: 23%

Unfavorable: 32%

Don’t Know: 21%

*

...Taiwan

Favorable: 31%

Neutral: 13%

Unfavorable: 40%

Don’t Know: 16%

*

...Hong Kong:

Favorable: 38%

Neutral: 11%

Unfavorable: 39%

Don’t Know: 12%

*

...U.S.

Favorable: 23%

Neutral: 6%

Unfavorable: 64%

Don’t Know: 7%

*

Q: Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the hand-over of Hong Kong to China on July 1?

Hong Kong residents

Optimistic: 60%

Neutral: 32%

Pessimistic: 7%

Don’t Know: 1%

So. Calif. residents:

Optimistic: 49%

Neutral: 16%

Pessimistic: 25%

Don’t Know: 10%

Southern California respondents born and raised in...

...China

Optimistic: 66%

Neutral: 15%

Pessimistic: 6%

Don’t Know: 13%

...Taiwan

Optimistic: 30%

Neutral: 18%

Pessimistic: 40%

Don’t Know: 12% ...Hong Kong:

Optimistic: 50%

Neutral: 24%

Pessimistic: 26%

Don’t Know:

...U.S.

Optimistic: 47%

Neutral: 9%

Pessimistic: 39%

Don’t Know: 5%

*

Q: Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of Hong Kong’s economic performance under the control of China?

Hong Kong residents

Optimistic: 65%

Neutral: 21%

Pessimistic: 12%

Don’t Know: 2%

So. Calif. residents:

Optimistic: 47%

Neutral: 15%

Pessimistic: 25%

Don’t Know: 13%

Southern California respondents born and raised in...

...China

Optimistic: 54%

Neutral: 19%

Pessimistic: 13%

Don’t Know: 14%

...Taiwan

Optimistic: 36%

Neutral: 14%

Pessimistic: 34%

Don’t Know: 16%

...Hong Kong:

Optimistic: 54%

Neutral: 19%

Pessimistic: 19%

Don’t Know: 8%

...U.S.

Optimistic: 52%

Neutral: 7%

Pessimistic: 35%

Don’t Know: 6%

*

Q: Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of Hong Kong’s political performance under the control of the Chinese?

Hong Kong residents

Optimistic: 39%

Neutral: 27%

Pessimistic: 28%

Don’t Know: 6%

So. Calif. residents:

Optimistic: 26%

Neutral: 15%

Pessimistic: 38%

Don’t Know: 21%

*

Southern California respondents born and raised in...

...China

Optimistic: 33%

Neutral: 21%

Pessimistic: 18%

Don’t Know: 28%

Optimistic: 18%

Neutral: 13%

Pessimistic: 53%

Don’t Know: 16%

Optimistic: 30%

Neutral: 15%

Pessimistic: 43%

Don’t Know: 12%

...U.S.

Optimistic: 29%

Neutral: 9%

Pessimistic: 52%

Don’t Know: 10%

*

Q: Do you think Taiwan is part of china today or not? If not, do you think Taiwan should become part of China, become an independent country or remain as it is now?

*

Southern California respondents born and raised in...

*--*

Taiwan... China Taiwan Hong Kong U.S. ALL

*--*

Q: If you could control history and its outcome, which of the following arrangements after July 1 would you choose: to make Hong Kong independent, to keep Hong Kong as a British colony, to make it part of the Commonwealth or to join Hong Kong with China?

Southern California respondents born and raised in...

*--*

So. Calif. Hong Kong Hong respondents respondents China Taiwan Kong U.S. ALL ALL Join with China 75 43 44 31 49 53 Independence 10 27 19 25 19 17 British Colony 2 10 25 24 14 15 Commonwealth 2 10 8 14 8 10 Don’t know 11 10 4 6 10 5

*--*

Q: Ten years from now, will Hong Kong look more like China is today, or vice versa?

Hong Kong residents

Hong Kong more like China: 22%

China more like Hong Kong: 59%

Little of both / hard to say: 18%

Don’t Know: 1%

So. Calif. residents:

Hong Kong more like China: 23%

China more like Hong Kong: 42%

Little of both / hard to say: 12%

Don’t Know: 23%

Southern California respondents born and raised in...

Hong Kong more like China: 15%

China more like Hong Kong: 44%

Little of both / hard to say: 18%

Don’t Know: 23%

Hong Kong more like China: 28%

China more like Hong Kong: 41%

Little of both / hard to say: 14%

Don’t Know: 17%

Hong Kong more like China: 27%

China more like Hong Kong: 42%

Little of both / hard to say: 6%

Don’t Know: 25%

Hong Kong more like China: 24%

China more like Hong Kong: 50%

Little of both / hard to say: 5%

Don’t Know: 21%

*

Q. Ten years from now, will Hong Kong be a better place, a worse place or about the same as it is now?

Southern California respondents

Better: 22%

Worse: 25%

Don’t know: 21%

Same: 32%

*

Better because...

*

Worse because...

... Economy will worsen: 26%

... Less democracy: 26%

... Less personal freedom: 23%

... More political disputes: 21%

*

Hong Kong respondents

Better: 44%

Worse: 20%

Don’t Know: 25%

Same: 11%

*

Better because...

... Economy will improve: 76%

... Better quality of life: 42%

*

Worse because...

... Economy will worsen: 50%

... Worse quality of life: 41%

... Less personal freedom: 28%

... More corruption: 18%

* Asked of those who said “Better” or “Worse”; two replies accepted; top answers are shown.

Note: Numbers ma not total 100% where more than one reply was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

Source: Los Angeles Times / Hong Kong Transition Project Poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Staying or Leaving?

Fewer than one in 10 Hong Kong residents have the right to live and work in another country without a visa (the “right of abode”), and most of those who don’t have that privilege are not applying for it.

Q. Have you been applying for a right of abode (asked of those who don’t have right of abode).

Yes: 8%

No: 91%

Don’t know: 1%

*

Q. Do you have family members or close relatives living abroad with right of abode? If so, where?

Yes: 42%

No: 57%

Refused to answer: 1%

Canada: 33%

United States: 22%

Australia: 13%

United Kingdom: 9%

Singapore: 4%

New Zealand: 3%

*

Q. Do you have any children in primary or secondary school in Hong Kong or overseas?

No: 77%

Refused to answer: 2%

Yes, overseas: 2%

Yes, in Hong Kong: 19%

*

Q. Which country are your children studying in (of those with children studying abroad).

United States: 14%

Canada: 14%

Australia: 9%

United Kingdom: 5%

New Zealand: 2%

Other: 11%

Refused to answer: 45%

*

Q. How frequently have you visited the United States?

Never: 83%

Once in 10 years: 4%

Once in 5 years: 3%

Once in 2 years: 3%

One time a year: 4%

More than once a year: 2%

*

Q. Would you seek means to leave Hong Kong is changes are unsuitable to you after 1997?

Yes: 41%

No: 44%

Don’t know: 6%

Like to but can’t: 9%

*

Q. What is the major change which you would find so unsuitable as to make you seek to leave Hong Kong?

Political prospects: 27%

Way of life (freedom): 22%

Economic prospects: 18%

Personal living standard: 16%

Family prospects: 9%

Corruption: 4%

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% where some answer categories are not shown.

Source: Hong Kong Transition Project

*

* AFTER THE HAND-OVER

As Hong Kong reverts to Chinese control, its economy, culture and freedoms hang in the balance. A separate section examines the stakes. Special Report

* THE FINAL CUT?

Will the territory’s thriving film industry, renowned for its ultra-violent, trend-setting movies, be stifled by the iron hand of government censors? Calendar

* RELATED STORIES: A11, A12