Forget the Universe, Can They Save Summer?

Exhibitors and industry analysts alike are looking to “Men in Black,” Tuesday’s Columbia sci-fi comedy release starring Tommy Lee Jones and Will Smith, to ignite a summer replete with box-office disappointments. Though “The Lost World: Jurassic Park” got the season off to a rousing start, total attendance figures are down 7.5% from 1996. A new study from Paul Kagan Associates, a media research and consulting firm, shows that since Memorial Day, wide releases have fallen 50% in their second weekend compared to 35% last year. (An acceptable drop is 40%.) In the face of upcoming competition from “Contact,” “Conspiracy Theory” and “Air Force One” (plus the already-released “My Best Friend’s Wedding,” “Hercules,” “Batman & Robin” and “Face/Off”), no one expects “Men in Black” to duplicate the mega-success of 1996’s “Independence Day”--or even “Lost World.” Still, the film should benefit from an unusual mix of humor and horror and a 98-minute playing time that permits several screenings each day. “None of the studios have met their upside expectations for any film so far but, along with ‘Face/Off,’ ‘Men in Black’ should help make up lost ground,” said Larry Gerbrandt, a senior analyst at Kagan, who adds that at this year’s ShoWest convention for theater owners, “ ‘Men in Black’ generated the same kind of ‘want-to-book’ as ‘Independence Day.’ The question is whether it will create the same kind of ‘want-to-see.’ ” So far, at least, the interest is huge. Industry polling of recent moviegoers shows that 25% of all respondents and four out of every 10 young males will choose “Men in Black.”

Disney Hall’s Glass: More Than Half-Full

And here’s Walt Disney Concert Hall’s $100-million question: Where’s the money? In April, fund-raisers for the L.A. Philharmonic’s proposed new home handily met a Los Angeles County-imposed June 30 fund-raising deadline of $52.3 million two months early--and since then have added another $10 million-plus toward an estimated $100-million funding gap. But that wasn’t enough for ad hoc fund-raising Chairman Eli Broad, who self-imposed an ambitious goal of raising $100 million by June 30--which, if you haven’t noticed, is today. A spokesman for the project acknowledged Friday that the $100 million is not quite yet a bird in hand, although he insists that many extremely wealthy birds are lurking in nearby bushes. An announcement of some smaller donations may come as early as Tuesday, but the gift or gifts that will take Disney Hall to the $100-million mark may be delayed for a few weeks, he said. Meanwhile, negotiations over Frank Gehry’s continued involvement in the project won’t resume until the architect returns from vacation next week.

Last Stand for the New British Invasion?

The moment of truth arrives Tuesday for Prodigy and possibly the future of British dance rock in the United States. That’s when Maverick Records releases the much-hyped English quartet’s highly anticipated new album, “The Fat of the Land.” No one at the label is predicting how high the album will reach during its first week on the national sales chart, but retailers expect Prodigy to outperform the Chemical Brothers, another star of the British dance scene. The Chemical Brothers’ “Dig Your Own Hole” entered the chart at No. 14 in April, selling 48,000 copies during its first week in stores, but has since dropped to No. 73. One advantage enjoyed by Prodigy is that it is a far more dynamic live act (led by singer Keith Flint) and, indeed, the group will headline several dates on the Lollapalooza tour, including an Aug. 8 show at the Glen Helen Blockbuster Pavilion. Gary Arnold, vice president of marketing for the Best Buy chain, expects “The Fat of the Land” to enter the chart at No. 1 because of the group’s young hard-core following, but says the true test will be whether the collection will appeal to a wider demographic. “All the press surrounding the group will work to its benefit,” Arnold says, “but what I’m mostly interested in is, what’s going to happen past week one? Will fans get into this genre of music, or will the album sink quickly on the chart and just hang out there?”

Lost Among the Fireworks: the Remote

Planning to watch much TV over the Fourth of July weekend? If the answer is no, you’re hardly alone: Historically, the week surrounding that holiday is the lowest-rated of the year for the major television networks, excluding quadrennial coverage of the Democratic and Republican political conventions. Summer vacations, daylight saving time and outdoor holiday activities usually combine to depress viewing levels, keeping people away from their sets more effectively than a series starring Pauly Shore. The question this year is how low the bar can go, given that ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox have already sunk so low in recent weeks. ABC, in particular, twice has equaled the record-low rating that the network posted during Fourth of July week a year ago. Network officials also debate whether there are lingering ill effects from these summer doldrums. Some believe viewers know to return after Labor Day, while others say the audience loses the “network habit” while being fed a steady diet of reruns. For that reason, Fox has been trumpeting the merits of original year-round programming and plans to try one major new series, the medieval epic “Roar,” in mid-July.