A Time of Uncertainty as Military Peers Ahead

Gen. Henry H. Shelton, President Clinton’s nominee to be chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is a combat-tested soldier with a specialty in unconventional warfare, and with certain ideas about the future that some of his colleagues might find uncomfortably unconventional. The United States, Shelton has written, must prepare itself for an era in which the major threats are likely to come from terrorism, ethnic conflicts and chemical and biological weapons. For the next decade, “operations short of war” could prove to be the norm, he says. That may turn out to be true, but the most plausible exception--a major localized conflict, in the Persian Gulf or Korea, say--can’t be ruled out. It too must be prepared for.

How well that is being done under the latest strategic defense plan is a matter of debate and concern. To fight even a limited war takes a lot of resources--material and human. But since the end of the Gulf War in 1991 the ranks of active-duty personnel have been cut by 27%, while overall military spending has declined by 24%. The Air Force has lost tactical squadrons and airlift capacity, the Navy has far fewer warships and support vessels. But under the new defense plan the Air Force will still retain 20 squadrons while the Navy will continue to operate 12 carrier battle groups. The big hits once again fall on the Army, which has shrunk from 18 divisions six years ago to 10 today. The Army has lost nearly one-third of its personnel, along with a major part of its ability to deploy what remains.

There is of course no need to restore the defense spending and manpower levels of the Cold War. But the disappearance of a global enemy like the Soviet Union hasn’t left the world without local threats that affect U.S. interests, whether those involve the security of oil resources or the freedom of friends and allies. Given the great-power commitments that fall to the United States, does the nation risk finding itself spread too thin should some unforeseen crisis arise while its armed forces are depleted?

The usual focus on military costs and the competition for dollars to buy new equipment too often obscures the most basic of military considerations: the limits of human endurance. Ships can stay at sea only so many months before crew morale and efficiency suffer over concerns about disrupted family life. Pilots can fly only so many hours before exhaustion takes over. Ground troops can serve in peacekeeping missions for only so long before they lose the sharp edge they must have for their primary war-fighting mission.

Shelton comes onto the Washington scene with a reputation for thoughtfulness and compassion, a warrior with demonstrated diplomatic skills. The chairman of the JCS is the president’s top military advisor and Congress’ chief military briefer. Both the president and Congress can expect to hear more of Shelton’s ideas about what unconventional challenges the military is likely to face. But Shelton also knows that small wars remain a threat. The armed forces--especially on the ground--may have to be ready to respond quickly and effectively to such conflicts. Right now a lot of specialists are worried that they won’t be.