Rep. Bilbray on Horns of Vote Dilemma

WASHINGTON —  It is Tuesday morning and the front page of the San Diego Union Tribune has declared Republican Rep. Brian P. Bilbray officially undeclared in the battle over what to do about Bill Clinton. Impeachment bedlam is breaking loose.

All 10 phone lines in his San Diego district office are jammed. The computer in Bilbray’s Washington office pings relentlessly with e-mail from a teed-off constituency. In the next 24 hours, it will ping more than 900 times.

A moderate willing to buck party leaders, Bilbray is one of about two dozen undecided GOP House members expected to determine President Clinton’s fate when the chamber votes next week on impeachment.

In Washington, Bilbray is suddenly hot, the object of attention in a city riveted by the unfolding drama. NBC-TV’s “Today” show had him as a guest Wednesday. “Meet the Press” wants him Sunday. The White House is calling to ask, “Is there anything we can do?” He has not attracted this much national attention since he happened to sit next to fellow freshman Sonny Bono at their 1994 congressional orientation.

Criticism No Matter What

He is about to be called to face the lions. And no matter what he decides, some big chunk of voters in his fickle district is going to tear him to shreds.

Ping!

If you vote against impeachment, I will vote against you in 2000. That doesn’t mean I’ll vote for . . . any Democrat, just that I’ll vote against you.

Ping!

Doesn’t anyone inside the Beltway listen? Get on with the people’s business. We do not want President Clinton impeached.

He is caught between his Republican base and the broad middle. His party wants him to join the team and hang Clinton. But as his surprisingly close reelection race this fall showed, many of his constituents want this spectacle to end--soon.

“This is the burden you carry when you are not a political hack, when you are known for voting independently and for being a maverick,” Bilbray said.

For him and other GOP moderates--including Reps. Stephen Horn of Long Beach and Tom Campbell of San Jose--the impeachment question looms as a lose-lose proposition. Whatever side they ultimately come down on, they may alienate enough voters to jeopardize their political survival.

For Bilbray, the issue has been a months-long ordeal that hangs in the air like a high fly ball. “There is plenty of time to get under it and catch it,” he said. “But also plenty of time to think about dropping it and choking.”

There is little doubt that his party’s decision to press impeachment nearly cost Bilbray his seat in November. After two terms in Congress, he had established himself as a solid centrist. His votes against repealing the assault weapon ban and for federally funded family planning suited many of the so-called beach Republicans he represents: well-educated, upscale types in a district that includes San Diego’s downtown and much of its coast.

Polls gave him a 13-percentage-point lead until October, when the GOP led the charge to open impeachment hearings. Almost overnight, his lead evaporated and he won by a whisker.

“If there is any message . . . , it is that going forward with impeachment is probably a losing proposition in this district,” said Gary Jacobson, a congressional expert at UC San Diego. “Does he want to anger the religious right of his own party or does he want to anger a much larger proportion of moderates and Democrats? He’s got to choose.”

Response to Ruff Claim

It is Wednesday afternoon.

“Brian, I hope you have C-SPAN on,” Bilbray’s chief of staff yells from an outer office. The congressman spins his chair and clicks the remote. White House Counsel Charles F.C. Ruff is making the case that the president’s misconduct does not rise to the level of an impeachable offense.

“Hmmm,” Bilbray groans sarcastically. “So a sexual relationship in the workplace is now a personal and private matter?”

He seems to be leaning toward impeachment, but that could change in an hour. It’s as though he is searching desperately for one good reason not to support a Senate trial. So far, the White House has not given him one. He was uplifted by opening testimony in Clinton’s defense on Tuesday, acknowledging that the behavior was grievous and reckless. But it was not long before the testimony was what he considers hairsplitting, ticking Bilbray off again.

Ping!

I cannot think of anything to be gained by impeaching Clinton. . . . Censure seems a really good option. . . . Hope to see you soon at the Yacht Club.

Bilbray is sitting in his office, looking for something to tip the scales decidedly. He has asked to review the tape of Clinton’s grand jury testimony, as though searching for some nugget or some incriminating phrase that might have eluded him. Reporters keep asking him what piece of information will make up his mind. He does not really know.

“I thought they had some real good answers this morning,” he said of the defense case. “It was about whether it’s appropriate to take this to trial in the Senate if we have no reason to think there will be a conviction.”

Which, of course, few believe there will be. So at this particular moment, his anti-impeachment voices seem to be loudest.

Ping!

I would lose all respect for you. I would never work again in your campaign and I would feel that it is time for you to leave Congress, as you have obviously been bought off by some kind of [White House] deal.

Ruff is still testifying, disputing that Clinton’s actions subverted the government. Bilbray’s ears perk. He spins around in his chair again.

“Is the abuse of government power the only justification for impeachment? That’s the key issue,” he said. But he does not know the answer yet.

Hot Item in Some Circles

In most of San Diego, impeachment is hardly on the public radar. But in some circles, it is Topic A. Roger Hedgecock, the former mayor and host of a popular local radio talk show, is pushing hard for ending Clinton’s presidency.

“Roger Hedgecock has this crusade . . . and in the next breath he’s saying you have to let Brian Bilbray know,” one San Diego GOP consultant said. “He’s got Bilbray in his gun sights.”

But the burning question is whether voters will even remember the furor in 2000. The public’s political attention span can be short and flighty. How long the issue endures could depend on how long it draws out in the Senate, should the House send it there for trial.

“If it turns into a circus and an insult to the intelligence of the American voter, Bilbray has no control over that,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a veteran California GOP strategist. “If it becomes something that is seen as a Republican partisan effort to divide the American people, then it could have long-term repercussions.”

Bilbray’s handlers are well aware of such possible consequences. Democratic strategists who targeted him in two past elections are already clipping newspaper stories and collecting videotapes as possible fodder for 2000.

Bilbray insisted that the politics is irrelevant, that his decision will be made on the merits. He said he is influenced most by what his son and daughter, 12 and 13, respectively, will one day think of him. He asked them for guidance; they were divided.

“The close-call election I just had reminded me you are not always going to be here, and what really matters is what you do while you are here,” Bilbray said.

He added, in a comment he has used frequently: “If you can look back with some pride in your contributions, that’s what lasts forever. I have to make sure I handle this so I can look my kids in the eye and their kids can be proud.”

Ping!

Your kids aren’t the only ones you have to look in the eye. I’m a voter. You owe me and mine to stick to your pledge to uphold the law. Impeach this criminal.

Joined by His Wife, Children

Sometimes it feels like the subject sucks all the air out of the room. Bilbray gets tired of it. His wife and children, who live in San Diego, came to Washington this week for a little sightseeing and some family time in what should have been a slow season for a congressman.

“Nice call,” he scoffed.

Monday night, while getting dressed for the White House congressional ball, his wife, Karen, suggested that they take the kids Christmas shopping instead. Bilbray hung up his tux, she put away her new dress and they all drove to Virginia.

He flew back to San Diego Friday, blocking out this weekend for surfing and sailing with his family. “The congressman is not available for media interviews until Monday,” his office answering machine informed. Still, Bilbray planned to get up before dawn Sunday and drive 45 minutes for a 6 a.m. taping of NBC-TV’s “Meet the Press.”

But the congressman made a brief public appearance Friday night. He said in an interview, “I’m going to wait to hear more evidence. While [the president] was remorseful [in a Rose Garden statement earlier Friday], he was still using that language that drives us all crazy, saying he was misleading, rather than what most people would say was a lie. But he’s still trying to reach out.”

Bilbray seemed resigned to the irony that Clinton might well serve out his term while moderates such as him go down in flames in the next election.

Ping!

No matter how you decide, I appreciate your openness. I will continue to support you in whatever action you take, even if we disagree.

His chief of staff printed that one out and read it aloud. They shared a laugh. It’s the only one of its kind.

Times staff writer Tony Perry in San Diego contributed to this story.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Profile: Rep. Brian Bilbray

* Age: 47

* Family: wife, Karen, two children, three stepchildren

* Personal: Born in Coronado, raised on naval bases and in Imperial Beach. Attended Southwestern College in Chula Vista.

* Profession: Tax consultant

* Political career: Imperial Beach City Council, 1976-78; Imperial Beach mayor, 1978-85; San Diego County Board of Supervisors, 1985-94; first elected to Congress from 49th District, 1994